Ok, lets look at this constructively. The PS2 will sell ~125 million from start of production to end of production. It is near the end of decline so sales will only decrease for the PS2 now.

We can tell that the DS has reached Maturity judging by sales in Japan and several other areas. So this means the DS can enjoy a period of good sales that will begin to decrease as Nintendo release information about the DS's successor (assuming this information will be released during 2008 and throughout 2009).

I will estimate sales until for 3 years, which by then the DS should have been succeeded...]

end of 2007: ~64,000,000

2008: This year

~425,000 sales per week

425,000 X 52 = 22,100,000

End of 2008 total (est) = 86,100,000




2009: Next year

Decline (est) 15%

425,000 X 0.85 = 382,500

382,500 X 52 = 19,890,000

End of 2009 total: 105,990,000




2010: People start to talk about DS successor

Decline (est) 25%

385,500 X 0.75 = 288,750

288,750 X 52 = 15,015,000

End of 2010: 121,005,000

Edit: title is supposed to read "Estimation the DS will beat world wide sales of PS2 by 2012"

2011: DS successor released

Decline 50%

288,750 X 0.50 = 144,375

144,375 X 52 = 7,507,500

121,005,500 + 7,507,500 = 128,513,000

End of 2011: 128,513,000

as you can see by my maths the Ds will beat the Ps2 sales at the end of 2011.

You place a lot of estimates in there, and exclude a lot of factors not taken into trend... A price drop being a major one. A sudden influx of diversed games a second. A new entry? Playstation killing off their PSP this year and announcing a new one with killer assets for medio 2010?

I know, some are more ridiculous then others but these sort of things can sway all ways. Not to mention that even the classic GB has surpassed the PS2 in all of its lifetime.

well, that's assuming that the DS successor is actually released in 2011, but this is still some very good proof.

Won't this make the DS the first handheld to break 1 million?

100 million, i mean. My mistake.

You're release date for the new DS seems a bit too late.

The Gameboy Advance was released in 2001.
The Gameboy Advance SP was released in 2003.
The Gameboy Micro was released in 2005.

A two year gap between each release.

Now, lets look at the DS:

The Nintendo DS was released in 2004.
The Nintendo DS Lite was released in 2006.

So one can conclude by following past patterns that the new DS model will come late this year or early next.

 Gameboy + Gameboy Color sold 118 million. Hell, if we included the Gameboy Lite and Pocket, It may have even passed the ps2.

Proof and evidence are not the same things, but i think your estimates aren't unreasonable. I'd have to agree with Esmoreit to though and say they many confounding factors.

I dunno, I just knocked it up out of boredom.

I know I said proof, I meant to write estimates but I made the mistake

Um did you take in consideration christmas and other holidays? Also the ds is far from reaching saturation in the other regions. The ds only reached saturation in japan because 1/6th of the population bought the system. Also if nintendo releases a new redesign the japanese will just buy new dses. That is how they are.. Like I eariler the other regions are far from reaching saturation. I believe only 1/15th of the U.S have dses, and we don't know for others. Japan is alot smaller than the U.S and Others so we can't say that sales will slow down in other regions because they slowed down in japan. Also whose to say the ds won't sell after it;s sucessor is launched. I believe the GB, and GBA both sold after this happened.

EWdit: I forgot to mention the ps2 is still selling people. YOu guys have to take in consideration that.