Maybe, but I'm guessing it'll need another redesign (not an entirely new machine, just a redesign, like the Lite was after the original DS) for it to get that far. I'm also guessing such a redesign will be released either this year or next. Nintendo need one for Japan.

I don't think so. The sales for the system in Japan are reaching saturation, and I expect it to do the same in NA and EU within a year or two.

Whilst the DS may have reached saturation in Japan, that's far from the case elsewhere. The GBA for instance sold over 40 million in the Americas alone. In line with historical trends, the Americas will reach saturation before Others, so don't expect sales to slow down anytime soon. The DS will almost certainly surpass the PS2.

I think that people forget to consider the unknown factor of software. The userbase looked tapped out in Japan now, but what if a massive hit among people that don't own a DS yet is released? Too many unknown factors to tell yet.

Depens on how many years the system will be on the market.

I don´t understand why people think the DS will hit a saturation point when the PS2 didn´t. Why should a console with a broader appeal hit this point faster than the other one?

In case nobody noticed: Nintendo never dropped the price of the DS and I... "guess" they´ll show us a "DS micro" at E3.

Japan didn´t see any big games this year so we can´t really say whether the sales will stay low. They are more likely to go up again when Dragon Quest IX hits. And you always have to take one thing into account: There are 120 million people in Japan and 22 million DS. There are 25 million DS in Europe but a hell of a lot of more people.

So basically: Fastest selling console of all time + no price drop ever + another remade version.... I don´t see how it could hit a saturation point anytime soon.

Well, the ds is selling an average of about 450k a week WW. The DS is currently on about 74 mil.

So, according to my calculations, it should equal with the PS2 in about 2 years, assuming sales stay at 450k a week.

Is that factoring christmas, and the ps2s sales?

@Everyone who says the ds will hit saturation in other regions. Um the ds sold to about 1/6th the population of japan I believe. Now it sold to about 1/15th of the us, and we don't know the population of others. So we don;t know when the ds will hit saturation. I would say it's a long time away.

@OP I think it is possible, but it depends on when the ps2 dies, and if the ds keeps alive after its sucessor comes. New colors or redesigns could help too.

Let's see...

DS is currently at 74.03M

Last year, it sold 29.4M, but let's say 30M to make it easy.

From 6th Jan to 16 June 2007, it sold 10.1M, but we'll say 10M for convinience.

This year, it has sold 10.4M - this means that WW, it shows no sign of slowing down. This leads to the assumption that it could sell 20M more this year, leaving it at 94M.

In 2007, it sold the following in the regions (5th Jan to 16th June):

America: 3.1M

Others: 3.4M

Japan: 3.7M

In 2008, it has sold the following:

America: 3.3M (+ 6%)

Others: 5.5M (61% increase)

Japan: 1.6M (51% decrease)

WW: > 5% increase

There is little reason to believe that the DS will decrease even further in Japan. If it does, we will see a re-design. A whole new handheld is not realistic, as Nintendo has said several times that they do not want to piss off their customers, so making them buy a gaming machine for full price, to then only be able to play it for 1 year, isn't likely. A limited edition DQ9 could do wonders too.

So I think that DS in Japan can only go one way from now - up.

There isn't much reason for the DS to go either up nor down in America. A price cut could come in Japan, but one in America seems unlikely. There could come a re-design soon though, and that would spike up the sales a bit.

Others, is really pretty hard to predict. But the numbers have been slightly decreasing this year (minimally though), so I guess it would rather fall than increase.

So for the end of the year, I guess we could see 95M fairly easily. 90M is almost certain.

I see no reason for the sales to drop below 25M for 2009, but 20M is close to certain.

Even if there is a new handheld from Nintendo out, the DS would drop in price, and possibly get a redesign (GB Micro came out a year after DS), so even in the year after the next handheld release, it would make 10M easily, with a shot at 15 or 20M.

So the very minimums I see, are the following ones.

Rest of 2008: 15M

Full 2009: 20M

Full 2010: 10M

Full 2011: 5M

I can't see it selling less than this (reasons mentioned above). Thinking we will see a new DS (not re-design, new gaming machine) in this fiscal year is close to crazy, and I doubt very much we will see one in the next FY. In 2010 though, I believe we will see one.

DS sales are likely to be down slightly year over year but by almost nothing.

DS should be at ~95 million by the end of this year, then 117 million by the end of 2009.

Best case scenario after that would be maybe 133 million by the end of 2010, then 144 million by the end of 2011, 150 million by the end of 2012, 153 million by the end of 2013, and then ~154 million by the end of 2014.

PS2 can probably reach 130 million in sell through, but you have to remember Sony shipped 100 million PS2s in 5 years 9 months, while DS will be at 100 million shipped in a little over 4 years. DS has had the higher peak, but it remains to be seen how well it will handle the long-tail...

Yes sales are slowing in Japan but is that saturation or would a price drop send them soaring again? imagine at E3 a new Animal Crossing DS, Pikmin DS, a kid icarus DS iteration and a price drop for Japan - I think sales would be straight back up to 2007's equivelant.

I think the DS has a lot of life left in it yet and the one thing it has going for it is when price drops come into the equation then households that own one may just get another.

Yes I can see it outselling the PS2 when all is said and done.