Will the DS outsell the PS2?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Let's see...

DS is currently at 74.03M

Last year, it sold 29.4M, but let's say 30M to make it easy.

From 6th Jan to 16 June 2007, it sold 10.1M, but we'll say 10M for convinience.

This year, it has sold 10.4M - this means that WW, it shows no sign of slowing down. This leads to the assumption that it could sell 20M more this year, leaving it at 94M.

In 2007, it sold the following in the regions (5th Jan to 16th June):

America: 3.1M

Others: 3.4M

Japan: 3.7M

In 2008, it has sold the following:

America: 3.3M (+ 6%)

Others: 5.5M (61% increase)

Japan: 1.6M (51% decrease)

WW: > 5% increase

 

There is little reason to believe that the DS will decrease even further in Japan. If it does, we will see a re-design. A whole new handheld is not realistic, as Nintendo has said several times that they do not want to piss off their customers, so making them buy a gaming machine for full price, to then only be able to play it for 1 year, isn't likely. A limited edition DQ9 could do wonders too.

So I think that DS in Japan can only go one way from now - up.

There isn't much reason for the DS to go either up nor down in America. A price cut could come in Japan, but one in America seems unlikely. There could come a re-design soon though, and that would spike up the sales a bit.

Others, is really pretty hard to predict. But the numbers have been slightly decreasing this year (minimally though), so I guess it would rather fall than increase.

So for the end of the year, I guess we could see 95M fairly easily. 90M is almost certain.

 

I see no reason for the sales to drop below 25M for 2009, but 20M is close to certain.

Even if there is a new handheld from Nintendo out, the DS would drop in price, and possibly get a redesign (GB Micro came out a year after DS), so even in the year after the next handheld release, it would make 10M easily, with a shot at 15 or 20M.

So the very minimums I see, are the following ones.

Rest of 2008: 15M

Full 2009: 20M

Full 2010: 10M

Full 2011: 5M

I can't see it selling less than this (reasons mentioned above). Thinking we will see a new DS (not re-design, new gaming machine) in this fiscal year is close to crazy, and I doubt very much we will see one in the next FY. In 2010 though, I believe we will see one.