deadhorse said: Dallinor said: Dolla Dolla said: Just goes to show you can't make great predictions before a console launches. Who knows what will happen after it finally makes it to market ... Or when it picks up steam. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS®3=All&align=1 At this point it looks pretty obvious as to what is going to happen this generation.

Oh, and whats that?

Dallinor said: deadhorse said: Dallinor said: Dolla Dolla said: Just goes to show you can't make great predictions before a console launches. Who knows what will happen after it finally makes it to market ... Or when it picks up steam. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS®3=All&align=1 At this point it looks pretty obvious as to what is going to happen this generation.     Oh, and whats that?

 

Wii will get a significant lead on the 360 in 2008.  The 360 will continue to do well enough to maintain a decent 2nd place.  The PS3 will always remain in 3rd place.

lol i just got done watching some simpsons and i read this title and i could imagine the comic book guy saying......worst prediction EVER

sorry alittle offtopic.....

deadhorse said: Dallinor said: deadhorse said: Dallinor said: Dolla Dolla said: Just goes to show you can't make great predictions before a console launches. Who knows what will happen after it finally makes it to market ... Or when it picks up steam. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS®3=All&align=1 At this point it looks pretty obvious as to what is going to happen this generation.     Oh, and whats that?   Wii will get a significant lead on the 360 in 2008.  The 360 will continue to do well enough to maintain a decent 2nd place.  The PS3 will always remain in 3rd place.

LOL, watch your post become a topic like this one in 2014, lol. Anayway, it seems people just have a tendency to forget events cause that guy was not in the minority back then. The PS2 got dissed bad, not as bad as the PS3 but then again no console has ever gotten the type of negativity and slander as the PS3 got.

Chubear said: deadhorse said: Dallinor said: deadhorse said: Dallinor said: Dolla Dolla said: Just goes to show you can't make great predictions before a console launches. Who knows what will happen after it finally makes it to market ... Or when it picks up steam. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS®3=All&align=1 At this point it looks pretty obvious as to what is going to happen this generation.     Oh, and whats that? Wii will get a significant lead on the 360 in 2008. The 360 will continue to do well enough to maintain a decent 2nd place. The PS3 will always remain in 3rd place. LOL, watch your post become a topic like this one in 2014, lol. Anayway, it seems people just have a tendency to forget events cause that guy was not in the minority back then. The PS2 got dissed bad, not as bad as the PS3 but then again no console has ever gotten the type of negativity and slander as the PS3 got.

A possible explanation "might be" that no other console got so many mistakes done on its development, promotion and launch either. BTW, why are you writing your posts in bold? No one will take you more seriously because of that, and it reeks of infantility.

 

some points,

1/ stop looking the past cause it never happens 2 time

3/ "It got dissed a lot on message boards by Dreamcast fanboys"
==> come on, we are not in the past man !
do you think that a lot of people had access to internet at this moment ?
The "dammage control" of the Dreamcast fanboys was not able to reach PSX fan that wanted to buy a PS2
At the opposite, NOW, PS2 fan have access to internet and are more sensitive to anti-Sony campaign (thx some usa VIP ^^). Of course, for the moment, PS3 has nothing to protect her : no game + high price ....
Sony Fan, at least a major part, don"t want to "believe" anymore Sony

2/ "The PS2 sold 10.61 million in its first year"
==> PSX hype was extremely great at this moment
Without this PSX hype, Dreamcast that was better, in term of game(soulcalibur) / cost, woul have win the war
(And i m not sure the technical difference between PS2/Dreamcast was big (?))

3/ Even alone in the market with game, Xbox360 was not able to sell 10M unit
: that is an unpopular console (except in america ofc)

4/ wait&see

Clearly that was a disastrously incorrect prediction. There's no denying that.  But it's not quite as bad as it appears on first glance. Many of the assumptions that the poster was working off of changed prior to the release of the consoles in question. For example:

- The PS2 never retailed for $375; it may have had more difficulty selling at a higher price point. OK, maybe not, but it's possible too. A lot of people believed that the PS2 would sell for roughly $400, since it cost about that much to make at the time. Everyone knows how Sony solved that problem by now: they sold the system at a loss, intending to make up the initial cost through software sales. And it worked, although Sony never made all that much money from the PS2, even with ridiculous sales, due to their market share strategy. Increase the initial price point for the PS2, and the last generation may have looked different.

- The poster also was operating on the assumption that the Dreamcast would live out a full lifespan in the market, rather than the abortive system we actually got. And frankly, that wasn't a terribly unrealistic expectation; the Dreamcast sold well in the US at launch (although it did poorly in Japan); Sega's bankruptcy and horrible prior history really did kill off what might have been a successful console. Imagine a world where the Dreamcast HAD been supported, launching a year earlier than the PS2 and retailing for less than half the price. (Say, $150 vs. $300 in the holiday season for year 2000.) I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that things might have gone very differently in that scenario.

- Finally, the poster mentions the expected launch of the Dolphin (Gamecube) in December 2000, only a couple of months after the American launch of the PS2. Obviously that didn't happen either, and the PS2 had a whole year to gobble up sales without any real competition. By the time that the Gamecube (and Xbox, which hadn't even been annouced at the time of this writing) were on the market, PS2 was already firmly entrenched in a dominant position, AND cutting the price to boot. It was thus never a $300 PS2 versus a $200 Gamecube, but the two systems selling at the same (or very close) price point - and the PS2 was a dominant software library. What would have happened if the Gamecube and PS2 really HAD launched at about the same time? I still think the PS2 would have won overall (especially in Japan), but it would have been a closer race, more like the Playstation/N64 console war.

So what does this really prove? Console wars are unpredictable. We really don't know what will happen ahead of time. Change just a few of the initial market conditions, and the outcome can swing wildly from a tight three way race (a potentially major battle between a $150 Dreamcast, $200 Gamecube, and $300 PS2, the latter two launching at the same time) to a runaway romp by one system, which of course actually occurred. So yes, this was clearly a bad prediction, but it wasn't as insane as some of you seem to think. (Those launches were only seven years ago, and I remember them very well.) I also think that the PS2's runaway victory had more to do with its major competitors of the day (Nintendo/Sega) shooting themselves in the foot than with any brilliant strategy on the part of Sony, but that's much more debatable.

I love how your bitching about a prediction dated 1999.

Yojimbo said: The funny thing is that, the same arguments is used against the ps3. I know that its not the same situation but still.

Crazy huh? Although, there was a lot more then price that made the PS2 a success. The only arguemnt he had was price. PS3 dioes have a good deal going against it. But, yeah, stange huh?