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Forums - Sales Discussion - wii sales end of 2008

pichu_pichu on 17 June 2008

I'm guessing around 45 million, somewhere in the 40s range...



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TheSource on 17 June 2008

Nintendo is expecting to have lifetime shipments of 49.45 million through March 31, 2009.

There is no sign of Wii slowing down, so you're looking at ~44-46 million Wiis shipped through 12/31/2008 as a minimum. Realistically, it looks like Nintendo will beat its forecast significantly given how Wii is performing.

They could probably ship 225k/45k/200k weekly worldwide right now and sell 95% of it.

Q4 sales tend to = ((1.5))((Q1+Q2+Q3)/(3))

So if Nintendo meets its own expectations...

Jan-March 08' Shipments ~24.45-20.13 million = 4.32 million shipped

April-June 08' Shipments ~30.5-24.45 million = 6.05 million

June-Sept 08' Shipments ~38-30.5 million = 7.5 million

((1.5))((4.32+6.05+7.5)/(3))

October-Dec 08' Shipments ~47-38 million = 9 million

 

But if you think Nintendo will beat expectations it goes something like this:

June 08' - 30.8 million shipped

Sept 08' - 38.5 million shipped

Dec 08' - 51 million shipped

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

yushire on 17 June 2008

people here never understands that Ninty saying Wii will sell 50 million worldwide during the fiscal year, not during this year, the fiscal year didnt start till the month of April it will end in March. So during the fiscal year in just three months Wii sold almost 30 million already, thats a accomplishment. Not including the christmas seasons and the Wiis are still sold out so Ninty can pass the 50 million Wiis easily...



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

tabsina on 17 June 2008
yushire said:
people here never understands that Ninty saying Wii will sell 50 million worldwide during the fiscal year, not during this year, the fiscal year didnt start till the month of April it will end in March. So during the fiscal year in just three months Wii sold almost 30 million already, thats a accomplishment. Not including the christmas seasons and the Wiis are still sold out so Ninty can pass the 50 million Wiis easily...

 

um.. did nintendo actually say that, or are you guessing that they did? .. seems very irrational to be coming from nintendo



ZenfoldorVGI on 17 June 2008
leo-j said:
superchunk said:
Basically what "Garcian Smith" said except the part the 50m is out of the question.

He is forgetting that the Wii's WW average has been increasing since supply has been increasing over the last few months and that will that increased supply Wii's holiday this year will definitely be bigger than last.

I believe Wii will have low of 48m and a high of 54m by end of 2008.

 

You cant just assume its going to be supply constrained forever. There are chances it wont even hit 40million, you have to look at the possibilities.

Even if the Wii isn't supply constrained, and trust me, it's unbelievably hopeful that supply constraint will end this year for the Wii, it will still be selling at or near its current rate for some time. It isn't even supply constrained in EU or Japan anymore and its still blowing up the charts in those countries, at least compared to its competition.

Frankly, even stating the possibility that the Wii won't hit 40 million units by the end of fiscal OR calender 08 is nothing short of fanboyism Leo-J. Be that fanboyism passive or agressive...who can know another man's mind?

Are your predictions going to pull Crazzys all years, or do you plan on becoming a serious poster around here again, like you once were attempting to be before your last major ban?

...or was that all a show in hopes of becoming a mod?



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

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ZenfoldorVGI on 17 June 2008
tabsina said:
yushire said:
people here never understands that Ninty saying Wii will sell 50 million worldwide during the fiscal year, not during this year, the fiscal year didnt start till the month of April it will end in March. So during the fiscal year in just three months Wii sold almost 30 million already, thats a accomplishment. Not including the christmas seasons and the Wiis are still sold out so Ninty can pass the 50 million Wiis easily...

 

um.. did nintendo actually say that, or are you guessing that they did? .. seems very irrational to be coming from nintendo

 

Nintendo is officially expecting 49.45m units shipped through the end of March 09. Those are official estimates, and all companies have official estimates. By most accounts historical and practical, Nitendo's estimates are conservative. That means they most likely guessed low in order to not look foolish if they don't sell the amount they really believe they will sell, which is approximately 1-5 million units higher than their public official estimation for stockholders.

 

In other words, expect 50-55 million Wii's sold by April 09, and believe me, Nintendo is really good at "guessing," lol.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

Zucas on 17 June 2008

50 million is close to impossible unless Nintendo is really able to get those shipments out during the holidays. Otherwise 45 million is a more reasonable guess. Given inevitable increase in shipments it's probably that Wii at the end of October will be at around 38 million. Then the last 8 weeks, Wii will likely average anywhere between 750k-1 million a week. More than likely about 5-6 million in those 8 weeks which will put it around 43-44 million to end the year. This is the most likely trend given no bumps both positive and negative.



tabsina on 17 June 2008
ZenfoldorVGI said:
tabsina said:
yushire said:
people here never understands that Ninty saying Wii will sell 50 million worldwide during the fiscal year, not during this year, the fiscal year didnt start till the month of April it will end in March. So during the fiscal year in just three months Wii sold almost 30 million already, thats a accomplishment. Not including the christmas seasons and the Wiis are still sold out so Ninty can pass the 50 million Wiis easily...

 

um.. did nintendo actually say that, or are you guessing that they did? .. seems very irrational to be coming from nintendo

 

Nintendo is officially expecting 49.45m units shipped through the end of March 09. Those are official estimates, and all companies have official estimates. By most accounts historical and practical, Nitendo's estimates are conservative. That means they most likely guessed low in order to not look foolish if they don't sell the amount they really believe they will sell, which is approximately 1-5 million units higher than their public official estimation for stockholders.

 

In other words, expect 50-55 million Wii's sold by April 09, and believe me, Nintendo is really good at "guessing," lol.

i know they are conservative.. i just couldn't remember that particular number ever being said, and was referring to yushire guessing, not nintendo, i know that if they say they'll ship that many, they'll ship more

 



yushire on 17 June 2008
tabsina said:
yushire said:
people here never understands that Ninty saying Wii will sell 50 million worldwide during the fiscal year, not during this year, the fiscal year didnt start till the month of April it will end in March. So during the fiscal year in just three months Wii sold almost 30 million already, thats a accomplishment. Not including the christmas seasons and the Wiis are still sold out so Ninty can pass the 50 million Wiis easily...

 

um.. did nintendo actually say that, or are you guessing that they did? .. seems very irrational to be coming from nintendo

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2215224/wii-sales-million-nintendo

Nintendo expects to sell 25 million Wii consoles in the next 12 months, company executives say.

If the forecasts are correct this would represent a doubling of the Wii user base to 50 million by spring 2009.

Almost 25 million Wii consoles were shipped in the first 18 months after its launch in November 2006. The company shipped 18.6 million Wii consoles during the past year.

The unprecedented success of the low-cost console drove a 50 per cent rise in annual net profits at Nintendo to $2.5bn on sales of $16.2bn. These figures, and Nintendo's sales data, are for the Japanese financial year which ended 31 March.

"Nintendo's strategy is to accelerate the current sales momentum from 'must-have for every family' to 'must-have for everyone'," the company said in a financial release.

The company will achieve this by "continuously introducing new and unique software, and new services which take advantage of its expanded installed base" .

Nintendo's older DS games system is also still selling well, with 30.3 million shipped last year and a forecast of a slight decline to 28 million shipments during the current financial year.

Nintendo's many parts suppliers and manufacturing partners around the world also stand to benefit if Wii shipments ramp up.

Earnings at Mitsumi Electric and Hosiden, which sell parts to, and undertake assembly work for, Nintendo, receive a greater boost from the Wii than the Nintendo DS.

"We think that Nintendo's projections look like good news for these two companies," said Takami Kono of Nomura Securities.

This thread didnt made if Ninty themselves didnt say it...

 



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

TWRoO on 17 June 2008

I think I am going to have to bring out a new (better) version of my production-shipment thread to prove that, unless Nintendo increase production again before October (they should be close to 2.4 million now) there is no way they can ship more than 45 million by the end of December