Nintendo is expecting to have lifetime shipments of 49.45 million through March 31, 2009.
There is no sign of Wii slowing down, so you're looking at ~44-46 million Wiis shipped through 12/31/2008 as a minimum. Realistically, it looks like Nintendo will beat its forecast significantly given how Wii is performing.
They could probably ship 225k/45k/200k weekly worldwide right now and sell 95% of it.
Q4 sales tend to = ((1.5))((Q1+Q2+Q3)/(3))
So if Nintendo meets its own expectations...
Jan-March 08' Shipments ~24.45-20.13 million = 4.32 million shipped
April-June 08' Shipments ~30.5-24.45 million = 6.05 million
June-Sept 08' Shipments ~38-30.5 million = 7.5 million
((1.5))((4.32+6.05+7.5)/(3))
October-Dec 08' Shipments ~47-38 million = 9 million
But if you think Nintendo will beat expectations it goes something like this:
June 08' - 30.8 million shipped
Sept 08' - 38.5 million shipped
Dec 08' - 51 million shipped
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
