What does everyone think MGS4 will sell week 2 in Japan? Here's a breakdown of what past titles have done in Japan week 2.
In order of Release:
1. 03/02/2007 - Dynasty Warrior Gundam - Week1: 174,638, Week2: 39,987, Week 2 %: 23%
2. 07/26/2007 - Hot Shots Golf 5 - Week 1: 167,659, Week2: 54,882, Week 2 %: 33%
3. 08/30/2007 - Bladestorm - Week 1: 62,350, Week2: 19,924, Week 2 %: 32%
4. 11/12/2007 - Dynasty Warriors 6 - Week 1: 186,247, Week2: 72,736, Week 2%: 39%
5. 12/13/2007 - Gran Turismo 5: P - Week 1: 109,356, Week 2: 30,886, Week 2%: 28%
6. 01/31/2008 - Devil May Cry 4 - Week 1: 208,837, Week 2: 35,762, Week 2%: 17%
7. 03/07/2008 - Yakuza 3 - Week 1: 175,764, Week 2: 41,054, Week 2%: 23%
So, here is what we have:
8. 06/12/2008 - Metal Gear Solid 4: 460,000, Week 2: ???
Interesting Facts:
The average % for second week sales is 27.86%
The median is 28%
If you throw out the high and low outliers, the percentage is: 27.8%
***Woops***All games are released on Thursdays in Japan so scratch this paragraph: MGS4 was released on a shortened week. Not as many days of sales will be included in its first week sales since it wasn't released on the normal day. This may produce a slightly higher amount of sales to carry over into the beginning of next week on release day.
My opinion:
MGS4 sold many copies due to it being bundled which could effect Week 2 sales in an unexpected way. It also seems the most hardcore games are influenced the worse--DMC4, Yakuza 3, etc.
So, if MGS4 sold 460,000 copies and it does the normal average (27.86%) it will sell Week 2: 128,800
Just as DMC4 dropped dramatically due in part to bundle sales, I predict MGS4 will do similarily. It will only sell about 17% of week 1 sales: 78,200
So, low (17%--DMC4): 78,200 (I lean towards this # because I'm a pessimist and the bundles)
Average (27.86%): 128,800
High (39%--Dynasty Warriors 6): 179,400
PSN ID: Sorrow880
Gamertag: Sorrow80
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