MGS4, Estimating Week 2 Sales in Japan

[DragonLord]

What does everyone think MGS4 will sell week 2 in Japan?  Here's a breakdown of what past titles have done in Japan week 2.

In order of Release: 

1.  03/02/2007 -  Dynasty Warrior Gundam - Week1: 174,638, Week2:  39,987, Week 2 %: 23%

2.  07/26/2007 -  Hot Shots Golf 5 - Week 1: 167,659, Week2: 54,882, Week 2 %: 33%

3.  08/30/2007 -  Bladestorm - Week 1: 62,350, Week2: 19,924, Week 2 %: 32%

4.  11/12/2007 -  Dynasty Warriors 6 - Week 1: 186,247, Week2: 72,736, Week 2%: 39%

5.  12/13/2007 - Gran Turismo 5: P - Week 1: 109,356, Week 2: 30,886, Week 2%: 28%

6.  01/31/2008 - Devil May Cry 4 - Week 1: 208,837, Week 2: 35,762, Week 2%: 17%

7.  03/07/2008 - Yakuza 3 - Week 1:  175,764, Week 2: 41,054, Week 2%: 23%  

So, here is what we have: 

8.  06/12/2008 - Metal Gear Solid 4: 460,000, Week 2: ???

Interesting Facts:

The average % for second week sales is 27.86%

The median is 28%

If you throw out the high and low outliers, the percentage is: 27.8%

***Woops***All games are released on Thursdays in Japan so scratch this paragraph:  MGS4 was released on a shortened week.  Not as many days of sales will be included in its first week sales since it wasn't released on the normal day.  This may produce a slightly higher amount of sales to carry over into the beginning of next week on release day.

 My opinion:

MGS4 sold many copies due to it being bundled which could effect Week 2 sales in an unexpected way.  It also seems the most hardcore games are influenced the worse--DMC4, Yakuza 3, etc. 

So, if MGS4 sold 460,000 copies and it does the normal average (27.86%) it will sell Week 2: 128,800

Just as DMC4 dropped dramatically due in part to bundle sales, I predict MGS4 will do similarily.  It will only sell about 17% of week 1 sales:  78,200

So, low (17%--DMC4): 78,200    (I lean towards this # because I'm a pessimist and the bundles)

Average (27.86%): 128,800

High (39%--Dynasty Warriors 6): 179,400