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Forums - Sales - When will PS3 Surpass Xbox360?

StarcraftManiac, let`s face some FACTS.

ps2/GC/xbox in 2002 march 31 - http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=37316&sort=0
28.7/3.8/3.08

x360/Wii/ps3 in 2007 march 31.
9.7/6.6/3.15

Now, how difference between 25 mln = 3-6 mln. ?


Well, ps3 will rock in second part of 2007.
Like begining with http://www.gamepro.com/screens/110429/108390-4-2.jpg :)

and well, any other console didn`t have so many good titles in _first_ year of console life. FACT.
PS3 in _first_ year will get in 2007:

GTA4
AC
DMC4
(multiplatform - but still will be very good games)

MGS4 or FFXIII(probably in 1st part of 2008, but.. no official dates)
KillZone2(atleast MP)
HS
NGS
Lair
Uncharted
Ratchet
LBP
MotorStorm
VF5
Warhawk
Folks soul

on PS2 all hits like MGS2, GT3, FFX, GTA3, DMC came only on _second_ year of console life. FACT.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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i predict holiday season 2008....



URNOTE Proud Owner of a 60GB PS3 Console (Purchased 12/22/06)

 #1 reason MGS4 is PS3 exclusive  xbox is too loud for snake to sneak around
PSNTAG= Xander732

Darc Requiem said:
naznatips said:
Well, I agree that not EVERYTHING will change. The 1st place this generation has been decided already, almost without a doubt. The chances of the Wii being overturned with the kind of initial success they have experienced are microscopic, especially with their dominance of all markets including a basic monopoly of the whole Japanese market. But, the PS3 is not out of chances to take 2nd place by any means. The deciding factor will be a price drop war between the PS3 and the 360.

 Pricing is why I don't think the PS3 will ever catch the 360. I've said it before and I will say it again. When it comes to pricing the PS3 is the X-box of this generation. Sony is completely at the mercy of MS when it comes to pricing.

It is the same situation that occurred between the PS2 and X-box. The X-box was priced well under its manufacturing cost for its entire life cycle. Not only did the PS2 cost Sony less to manufacture than the X-box did for MS, but Sony was also able to reduce the cost of the PS2 more quickly. MS could never approach breaking even on each X-box sale because of the periodic price reductions of the PS2. While Sony was breaking even or taking a small loss, MS was taking a big loss or a really big loss. 

For this generation the situation is reversed. MS is already making a per unit profit of the 360, they have been for about 9 months. Sony on the other hand, even with the removal of the EE and reduction of Blu-Ray diode costs, is still taking a significant hit on each PS3 sold. MS could drop the price now and still break even. Sony doesn't have that luxury. Once the switch to 65nm occurs, MS will be making even more profit per unit. MS will have Sony in a difficult predicament, the same one that Sony had them in during the prior generation. They can either match MS' price drops on the 360 and continue to take massive losses or they can stand firm on price and watch as the Wii and 360 pull farther and farther ahead of them. The worse part for Sony is that while MS took massive losses with the X-box to stay on equal footing when it came to pricing, Sony will be taking massive losses with a price cut while still being the more expensive console.

I just don't see how Sony can ever match MS when it comes to pricing. The PS3's sales will always be hampered by its more expensive price. By the time Sony can get the PS3 down to a mass market pricing level, the Uus and X-box 720 will be about to launch. Then the only potential advantage the PS3 has will be gone, it won't be the "most powerful" console any longer. You can bet your life that the Nintendo "Uus" will be $250 and it will look a great deal next to the $200 PS3 and $400 X-box 720. 


i know this thread is about sales.. but i cant sit by idly and let people feed you this junk... Microsoft themselves have stated that they dont expect to make profit off the 360 until sometime in2008.. so how can you all of a sudden just tell everyone that they are making a profit on each console made without any proof facts or links to prove... it sickens me when people just say things without merrit...



URNOTE Proud Owner of a 60GB PS3 Console (Purchased 12/22/06)

 #1 reason MGS4 is PS3 exclusive  xbox is too loud for snake to sneak around
PSNTAG= Xander732

dgm6780 said:
ampillion said:
 

How so? Because it's got a graphical interface and avatars that walk around a virtual space? You have to provide something more than just a virtual representation of what you can already do on another service. Why would anyone want to jump through some hoops of creating a goofy 'lifelike' avatar, just to do the same exact things you can already do on another service?

 

 


Uhhh what??? If your logic holds true why arent we still playing MUDS instead of World of Warcraft? They had better stories, depth, customization, variety and were cheaper/free !! Hell why did we even upgrade from PS2/Xbox??

 

Can you share video via XBL?

Share music?

have a place all your own to decorate?

and other people actually see it?

multimedia trophies instead of MUD style achievement points??

and uh most people think a life-like 3D avatar that walks, talks, bears a resemblence to you, and carries around a boom box playing your favorite toons asking people if they think they can hang in some Motorstorm , sounds pretty damn cool!!


dont hate! you know Home is going to blow people away !!

 


Wait, so you're comparing a text-based, home grown and operated game that runs on most any computer that can connect to the internet to a commercially run and funded graphical game that someone has to both pay for and own the computer guts to run it? Just in case you were curious, Home is neither a game, nor an RPG or even an MMO. At this time from what I've seen, it's merely a virtual world chatroom/community where you can show some things off.

If you want to know why people have moved away from Muds to games like WoW, that's fairly easy. There's many a reason. For starters, WoW has an art style to it, visual components that you can't just text into place. Those are things you have to see. For you to get as much out of a MUD as you would out of WoW, you'd have to have a lot of imagination and a lot of patience reading/writing, and here in the US, I see both things at an all time low. Why did we upgrade from the PS2/Xbox? Because the companies felt like they could offer up something new graphically with the technology that had worked its way down to mainstream pricing and started a new generation. One team starts loading their gun for the first salvo, and the other teams are going to be quick to act and do the same. Console gaming is an arms race.

I can share video, music, show off my home (real or virtual) anywhere on the internet. It's not difficult. Home itself, again, is not going to be a selling point to people who have some desire just to be social. Video games are not looked upon as a social network by most, regardless of who you might contact on the internet or over PSN/XBL.

"Most people"? Did you do some sort of internet polling? Did you go on the streets and ask the common person that that's what they want? Some sort of virtual world representation of themselves to sit around and chat with? Most the people I know won't buy the PS3 just for the price alone, games might sway them once their favorite PS2 titles get their next iterations on the PS3, but Home won't.

I won't 'hate' on Home, for all we know it could have a lot of awesome features we haven't seen yet or that will be implemented in the future. But don't treat Home as some sort of killer app. Maybe it will have some appeal, maybe it will revolutionize a community. In my opinion? I don't see it happening. Sharing music and video? You know that Sony will crack down on things of the sort, they're not going to buddy up with the RIAA to protect their music rights, and then let their console become a breeding ground for pirating files and music. And you won't be sharing things that you purchased from Sony, I mean, they'd only sell a couple of copies of any song or movie before it's spread across their network like wildfire, and then who buys it? You'll end up having people standing around, WoW style, yelling for people to trade them music or video streams that they've downloaded or purchased.

So again, I have no problems with people adding Home into their arguements as part of Sony's online services, but do not act like it's some savior that will destroy XBL. If it's totally awesome, maybe it'll help bail some of that water on Sony's waterlogged PS3 boat. But don't pretend that the game is going to be won because of it.

Edit - Added the whole 'Why MUDS have died' bit, and cleared up a few things. I love to type, if you haven't noticed. :)



CrazzyMan said:
StarcraftManiac, let`s face some FACTS.

ps2/GC/xbox in 2002 march 31 - http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=37316&sort=0
28.7/3.8/3.08

x360/Wii/ps3 in 2007 march 31.
9.7/6.6/3.15

Now, how difference between 25 mln = 3-6 mln. ?


Well, ps3 will rock in second part of 2007.
Like begining with http://www.gamepro.com/screens/110429/108390-4-2.jpg :)

and well, any other console didn`t have so many good titles in _first_ year of console life. FACT.
PS3 in _first_ year will get in 2007:

GTA4
AC
DMC4
(multiplatform - but still will be very good games)

MGS4 or FFXIII(probably in 1st part of 2008, but.. no official dates)
KillZone2(atleast MP)
HS
NGS
Lair
Uncharted
Ratchet
LBP
MotorStorm
VF5
Warhawk
Folks soul

on PS2 all hits like MGS2, GT3, FFX, GTA3, DMC came only on _second_ year of console life. FACT.

All those games can and will be countered with announced Wii or Xbox360 titles...! FACT!

AND: Wii (<ESPECIALLY<) and X360 are now in a position which PS2 was in last-gen! ... FACT!



THE NETHERLANDS

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StarcraftManiac said:
CrazzyMan said:
StarcraftManiac, let`s face some FACTS.

ps2/GC/xbox in 2002 march 31 - http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=37316&sort=0
28.7/3.8/3.08

x360/Wii/ps3 in 2007 march 31.
9.7/6.6/3.15

Now, how difference between 25 mln = 3-6 mln. ?


Well, ps3 will rock in second part of 2007.
Like begining with http://www.gamepro.com/screens/110429/108390-4-2.jpg :)

and well, any other console didn`t have so many good titles in _first_ year of console life. FACT.
PS3 in _first_ year will get in 2007:

GTA4
AC
DMC4
(multiplatform - but still will be very good games)

MGS4 or FFXIII(probably in 1st part of 2008, but.. no official dates)
KillZone2(atleast MP)
HS
NGS
Lair
Uncharted
Ratchet
LBP
MotorStorm
VF5
Warhawk
Folks soul

on PS2 all hits like MGS2, GT3, FFX, GTA3, DMC came only on _second_ year of console life. FACT.

All those games can and will be countered with announced Wii or Xbox360 titles...! FACT!

AND: Wii (<) and X360 are now in a position which PS2 was in last-gen! ... FACT!


Don't bother trying to convince Crazzyman, I honestly tried two or three times and it's impossible... When you back him into a corner, he'll just ignore your arguments and start attacking you directly, or repeating the same copy-pasted arguments.

Let's wait for the end of the year and see how his predictions change at that time.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Well, consdering that there are no FACTS to show any real proof, and merely speculation that can be used to defen a stance, I'll just say that if the PS3 were to pass the 360, it would be no sooner than 2009.



And here are facts:

The X360 is at the same differential of the PS3 in sales from any other point. The 360 has around (give or take 200k or so), 6.5m units.

For any argument of a Sony fanboy saying MGS, DMC, FFXIII, Drakes, Lair, Heavenly Sword, or any big-budget title that will make the PS3 sell well (which I won't argue), the 360 has the same quality AAA games.

Therefore, any game you say, can be easily renounced by the 360. Both systems are dead even in terms of games.

So your going to have to find a reason that consumers are going to randomly buy 6.5m more PS3s than 360s over a decent timeframe.

Also, it's a near mathmatical impossiblility, that at ANY point in 2007, that the PS3 will ever cut their 6.5m deficit by any major number by the end of the year.

If anything, as numbers are showing, the 360 is leading, and will well into 2008, until, at a minimum, FFXIII launches and attempts to revive a Playstation brand in Japan.

Until that point, sometime in mid-2008, your not going to see any sort of major sales.

I'm going to paint a bleak picture for you: Christmas 2007 won't go well for Sony. Trends are showing that the PS3 is continuing to slide Dreamcast and GC style that are going to severly inhibit major sales of the PS3 globally against a much more fit Wii and 360. The #1, and only real reason is price.

IF Sony doesn't drop the price, it's very unlikely that consumers will just suddenly buy 3-4m PS3s globally in November and December, when the 360 will get a price cut, and the Wii will maintain it's brisk sales.

In all reality, the 360 could beat the PS3 2:1 globally this holiday.

From there, where do fanboys think the PS3 can recover from such a low position rapidly? I'm not saying it's impossible, and most likely will happen. But to assume that Folk Soul, NGS, Uncharted, KZ, MGS, DMC4, or any title (except maybe FFXIII) is going to revive the Playstation 3, and exalt it to heaven is just as idiotic as the X360 fanboys assuming that Blue Dragon was going to make the X360 viable competition in Japan against everyone, and give it consistant sales.

Just like Gundam Mousou, any game that comes out will help it's platform, but not in a major way. It's difficult for a GAMER to justify an insane $600 when the Neo Geo was out, and the same for the Playstation 3.

You can't just always say "oh, the 2nd half of 2007, ect will trend better, and it'll revive the system". Don't get me wrong, it'll do better. But even if it does 100% better (which is very unlikely), that STILL equals sales of 100,000 a week! Do you think those numbers, although better, are meaningful against a 360 that ALREADY sells near 100k a week NOW with the same quality of titles coming out in Q3 and 4?

A good example is the 360 in 2006: it trended as being strong in 2006 Q1, and started slowly declining in Q2 and mid Q3. Even when the supposed major titles came, in N3, Saints Row, Splinter Cell, Dead Rising, million-seller Madden 07, and the other major titles came, hardware didn't really do any better.

It was November, when retailers started offering $50 and $100 discounts on the system, that sales started majorly picking up, and sold very well. If Sony cannot match what MS did last year (with a price drop, or atleast some incenives), I fail to see where in the world a much more expensive system would trend better than a much-cheaper system.

Also, saying Home will sell systems makes as much sence as a content upgrade for Oblivion will move hardware: It's idiocy at it's finest. No matter how popular it is, a virtual achivement area doesn't sell systems. Gamerscore was, and is still huge on the 360, and hundreds of sites are dedicated to tracking and informing people of gamerscore. Did gamerscore sell ANY 360s? No. It made for people renting quite a few games from Blockbuster, but that was the length of MS's marketing genious. When your trying to copy something like gamerscore/achivements, or Wii Waggle with the Sixaxis, any sort of advantage the predicessor had still remains, and your going to find that your thing only allows you to survive, not strive.

I'm not trying to speak gloom and doom, but the reason everyone is so anti-PS3 sales is this: Sales for the PS3 suck. There is no way to extrapolate that the biggest console in history has only sold 3.5 or 3.6 million units well into it's first year.

When you try to justify sales using price, or any other reason, you are proving the system doesn't sell, because any and every thing is now a reason it won't sell. The only time that price justifies discussion about sales is IF and WHEN the price is lowered, but not before.

Give it up kids, leave your PS3 uber-sales behind, and come back in 2009 when it might have dug itself somewhat out of the hole it's in. Until then, you may play whatever games keep you company on that $600 behemoth you own.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Well, those are nice CURRENT facts being used to speculate market trends in the future. However, I agree with all of them. PS3 needs Japan to advance WW, and FFXIII should provide a nice boost.



StarcraftManiac said:
CrazzyMan said:
StarcraftManiac, let`s face some FACTS.

ps2/GC/xbox in 2002 march 31 - http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=37316&sort=0
28.7/3.8/3.08

x360/Wii/ps3 in 2007 march 31.
9.7/6.6/3.15

Now, how difference between 25 mln = 3-6 mln. ?


Well, ps3 will rock in second part of 2007.
Like begining with http://www.gamepro.com/screens/110429/108390-4-2.jpg :)

and well, any other console didn`t have so many good titles in _first_ year of console life. FACT.
PS3 in _first_ year will get in 2007:

GTA4
AC
DMC4
(multiplatform - but still will be very good games)

MGS4 or FFXIII(probably in 1st part of 2008, but.. no official dates)
KillZone2(atleast MP)
HS
NGS
Lair
Uncharted
Ratchet
LBP
MotorStorm
VF5
Warhawk
Folks soul

on PS2 all hits like MGS2, GT3, FFX, GTA3, DMC came only on _second_ year of console life. FACT.

All those games can and will be countered with announced Wii or Xbox360 titles...! FACT!

AND: Wii (<ESPECIALLY<) and X360 are now in a position which PS2 was in last-gen! ... FACT!


What games??? Forza 2 with 150k in usa and 15k in japan? LOL.

Wii is NOT a competitior, Wii is ADD_ON for x360 or ps3. =)

 



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far