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Forums - Sales - My Prediction: PS3 to hit 15 million sold before Xbox 360 hits 20 million

DragonLord on 30 May 2008

I think there is a strong possibility the ps3 will hit 15 million before the 360 hits 20 million for a few different reasons:

1. MGS4 is popular in all territories.
2. Reintroduction of the 80GB unit.
3. In-game XMB, Trophies, etc. (FW 2.40) *rumored*
4. Many more adults should be picking up ps3's because of the $600 tax rebates that are starting to come out now (And high schoolers with graduation money). MGS4 will hype it up and make it the console of choice for a month or two.
5. PS3 is already gaining around 125,000+ units a month without any of the above reasons.

But, it's going to be too close to call. All it would take is an adjustment like last weeks in any direction to totally disrupt "what you expect." Eitherway, it should be within a few 100,000...



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omgwtfbbq on 30 May 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
thx1139 said:
azrm2k,

Dont you know that no one that wants MGS4 has a PS3 yet.

No kidding. I know about a hundred people in Japan alone that will buy PS3s for MGS4. Really, that translates to millions.  In Japan alone.

HAHAHA!

this is just too funny.  No MGS game has ever sold a million copies in Japan, yet you expect MGS4 to actually sell"millions of PS3's"

TheBigFatJ said:
DMeisterJ said:
I would say no, but since the biggest game of the generation is coming out in thirteen days, and it's exclusive to the PS3, I'll say yes.

This is a good point. Consider it a changing of the guard: GTA used to double the sales of MGS easily when they were both Playstation exclusives. Back when MGS 2 and 3 came out, it wasn't even close to the biggest game of the generation.  Now that GTA is multiplatform, expect MGS to outsell it drastically. And, of course, SMG / Halo 3 / MK Wii will never match the sales of MGS 4.

There's no arguing that MGS 4 will not be the biggest game this generation. Until now, Resistence held that title.


It's ok, I get it now, you're making fun of PS3 fans. You had me for a second there.

Do you write for SDF?

 

 



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brute on 30 May 2008

i dont think it will be able to outsell it 2:1



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ph4nt on 30 May 2008

I think people are overestimating the boost for PS3 from a single game. GTA4, arguably the biggest release of this generation, failed to do much with hardware. MGS4, a much more niche title (comparatively speaking). Will not give PS3 the same boost, especially not the 200%-300% increase people are predicting. It defies all trends of the past.



DragonLord on 30 May 2008
ph4nt said:
I think people are overestimating the boost for PS3 from a single game. GTA4, arguably the biggest release of this generation, failed to do much with hardware. MGS4, a much more niche title (comparatively speaking). Will not give PS3 the same boost, especially not the 200%-300% increase people are predicting. It defies all trends of the past.

 Don't forget it's not just MGS4 being released.

 

The backwards compatible 80 GB ps3 is also being released again.  I know some people that have said they are buying a ps3 now that the 80 GB is finally back....and those same people have no interest in MGS4...it's the 80 GB sku they want.  

I'd go so far as to say that the new sku will move as many consoles as MGS4.



PSN ID: Sorrow880

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Squilliam on 30 May 2008

My prediction: The Xbox360 will sell 50,000,000 before the PS3 sells 45,000,000.



Tease.

jjseth on 31 May 2008
Ishy said:
I almost agree with you here JJSeth, I think the ps3 will hit 15 million at the same point as 360 hitting 20 million, or a week either way...

 This is a first that we "almost" agree Ishy.   I think it will be close as well, but I think that the boost from MGS4 will give the PS3 enough of an edge to do this.  With this being the traditional "slow period" for game sales, the PS3 could continue with high sales for a bit longer while the 360 dips with the normal summer "lulls"



 


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kylohk on 31 May 2008

MGS4 would no doubt give the PS3 a boost, but I doubt it would be that explosive. Given a negative public perception of the console, any boost is going to be hindered.



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John_Doe on 31 May 2008
brute said:
i dont think it will be able to outsell it 2:1

 

it's not 2/1 it is 2/1.16

and GTA4 didn't make an impressive boost but enough to give the console a little advantage of about 200k units and I think this could be enough to make the PS3 reach 15 million when 360 reach 20 due to MGS4



Rock_on_2008 on 31 May 2008

I agree with op. PS3 will reach 15 million before the 360 reaches 20 million.