I have collected all the relevant information from VGchartz and got a breakdown of the whole figures to create a trend analysis, based on the past figures, which is a solid and totally objective method to estimate the future sales but with one flaw, that is, its static (not dynamic) and unaffected from future developments like price-cuts etc. But the estimates can be improved after each new weekly data to be even more accurate.

I base my trend analysis on different time frames to get "time intervals" (so that the figures will be more reliable) which are all weekly data based on

- last 1 month average sales

- last 2 months average sales

- last 3 months average sales

- 2007 average sales

for each given region seperately and combined.

Here are the figures...

The blackened parts depict regions where Wii has already surpassed Xbox360 (Japan and Spain). On the first 2 columns, we see average Wii and Xbox360 sales and on the third column, how many weeks Wii needs to surpass Xbox360 in each region (and worldwide). This estimate may change depending on what you base it on, whether last months data or quarterly data or yearly etc.

If everything else the same, the figures say, Wii will surpass Xbox360 approximately,

in 14-17 weeks worldwide,

in 31-47 weeks in Europe and the rest of the world

in 64-97 weeks in America.

The "other total" also includes Europe btw, and this is a static analysis that has to be renewed regularly, so things might change in the future. Also We notice an acceleration in the wii sales rate (for example the weeks needed dropped from 97 to 64 weeks in America, and from 47 to 31 in Europe, as well as from 17 to 14 globally), so Its safer to say that Wii will surpass Xbox360 in 3-4 months globally but wont be able to do it in America or Europe before 2008 unless the sales accelerate even more!

You can also find the details for all important European markets as well. The first next country that Wii is gonna surpass Xbox360 is France followed by Germany!

I expect the Wii Worldwide and specifically in the Other/European market to speed up a bit in catching the 360 through early August.  Past August, the rate will drop to below what it is in terms of catch up in the world market because of stronger 360 sales in the Americas.  Europe will see more gains for Wii and PS3, so that when combined with Japan, Wii will still be catching up worldwide.

Essentially you can break it down like this:

Speed of Sales & Time Frame..as a chart (Jan 1- Aug 1 2007):

Rate of Sales           Americas             Japan          Europe/Others           Overall

Very Slow                                           360

Slow                                                                             360                 

Normal                                                                                                      360

Fast                         360                                               Wii

Very Fast                 Wii                        Wii                                                Wii  

(August 1-Dec 31 2007)

Rate of Sales          Americas             Japan           Europe/Others         Overall

Very Slow

Slow                                                  360

Normal                                                                         360

Fast                                                                             Wii                      360

Very Fast                360, Wii                Wii                                               Wii

The changes in sales rates later in the year will greatly impact how wide a lead Wii gets over 360...

I predict it will be the week of September 23rd.

Wii = 11.29m
360 = 11.28m
PS3 = 4.17m

Based on some screwed up math that I won't go into detail with, I predict that by Jan 1, 2008. Wii=14m 360=12m PS3=8m That's being fairly generous to the 360 and PS3 and assuming Wii will continue to sell as it has been selling.

Very interesting and clever figure from TheSource, and without any figures, thats great! :D

I also pretty much agree with Gballzack but I have estimates by the end of 2007, which is naturally a bit higher for each. I will release those figures soon.

Totally agree with "Escherichia" except for the PS3 figures unless something that moves the PS3 sales. Otherwise PS3 cannot pass the 7 million barrier.

Haven't checked the others, but the 360 figure seems too low... If current weekly averages continued, the 360 would have sold 12.29 million by the end of the year. That's ignoring Halo/GTA launches and holiday sales peak, so is it really possible that the 360 sells 12 million only?

I think Wii will supass 360 by November, but 360 won't let them pass that easily thanks to Halo 3 in September which will more than likely sell over a million in its first day like Halo 2.

It's an easy awnser but before the end of the year. Perhaps around September.

Ive typically put the Wii @ late September.

However, I now anticipate it either week 2 or week 3 in September. However, with Halo 3, GTAIV, it should end up overtaing the 360 for 1-2 weeks, then the 360 will re-gain the lead until late Christmas or mid January (from there, continue to lose for a year or two).

A 360 price drop REALLY will affect my projections. If the drop occured in August, the Wii won't catch up until Christmas or so. Also, the kind of price drop will effect alot. A $50 drop will only give it a little bit of a boost, enough to maybe stave off the Wii by maybe 25k units till H3. $100? It might hold it off until Febuary. But we'll have to see.

Some on the forum were predicting June or July (Johnlucas). The absolute earliest for the Wii to overtake it is mid to late August, if the Wii somehow gained on sales by a ton (250k avg. a week)