By the end of this, maybe it´ll have a 70 or even 80% market share.

as for all of Wii's successes - this is still unknown. One things for sure with the launch of Wii Fit and looking at how Japans launch has improved Wii sales to date and still showing legs (now has a greater install base than PS3 in Japan) and the Wii prouction increase them .3% are only gonna get bigger.

Totally agree that once that 50% is reached and even more so as sales trends on the wii software is established (EA already knows My Sims is a success as does Capcom with REUC and Ubisoft with RRR) then the support is only gonna get larger.

Okay, time to put some facts.

Current gap between Wii and Ps360 = 5360K.

Weeks left of the year: 30

Total sales pr week needed: Ps360 + 178K

So far this year, Wii has sold 6938K.

Ps3 has sold 3838K

X360 has sold 2880K.

Ps360 has sold 6718K.

Wii has sold 220K more than Ps360, or an average of 10K more pr week. At that rate, it would take 10 years to make it, but of course, the rate won't stay.

Last 2 months (9 weeks):

Wii: 3859K

Ps3: 1882K

X360: 1477K.

Ps360: 3359.

Wii outsold Ps360 by 500K, or about 55K/week. By this rate it would outsell Ps360 by FY '10.

Last month (5 weeks):

Wii: 2409K

Ps3: 1162K

360: 902K

Ps360: 2064K.

Difference: 345K. Weekly; 69K/week.

By this rate it would make it within christmas '09.


PS: Holiday seasons will not make that big an effect, as the total sales difference isn't super-majorly increased, but of course, it flaws.

For Wii to outsell Ps360 by 178K/week, it would have to break even in Others (sell as much as ps360) (it is currently selling 35K less/week.)

In Japan it would have to increase to 80K/week (it is selling 45K/week more currently, but here holiday should give a major boost, as Ps360 doesn't sell a lot)

In America it would have to sell 90K more /week, compared to 10K/week so far this year. During the last 2 months, it has sold about 60K/week more, and with holiday it could make 80K/week.

This means, that for Wii to outsell Ps360, it would need to average:

Japan: 110K

Others: 200K

America: 250K

WW: 560K/week. Or 2426K/month.

The above estimation includes holiday seasons, but has perhaps not taken it into big enough account. Real number might be closer to 2600K/month.

Most of the ps360 fanboys on this site that have predictions in their sig have ps3+360 sales at around 44-46mil at end of 08

With Wii production increase, we know that Wii will hit right around 45mil this year (tho it'll prolly be increased again this fall), so even the ps360 fanboys are predicting that wii will basically have 50% share this year, even if they won't admit it because they put wii at only 35-40mil sold, which we already know won't happen

So combine ps360 fanboy's hopes in their predictions with the realistic 45mil wii scenario and you have 50% this year


personally, i think it'll hit 50% around october, then lose it briefly this xmas due to supply constraints and then get it back by feb...from there it will move up and up, eventually getting over 65% marketshare

@OP: No, I'm still not so sure it will, and still think that even if it does, it won't stay there for very long. It would look like it if current trends keep up, but that's where it unravels for me; I'm not sure current trends will stay the exact same.

Please, however, feel free to tell me I'm wrong or make a 5000 word "analysis" to prove me so. I really don't give a shit at this point, this very topic has had at least 5-6 threads the last 2-3 months to my memory.

Yes they will.

Finally, Someone with some hard facts to back up their reasoning. (Not to say no one else has any but this just puts it exactly how I wanted to see it).

 The only way Nintendo is going to get 50% market share this year is if they increase production to 2.4 mill a month as of this very week, (not a gradual increase), and/or they express ship some of January's stock for christmas this year and sell out completely.

I believe they would need to sell a minimum of 14 Million Wii's by end Dec this year (Preferably 15 Million if the express ship some of Jan units). to even come close to getting that 50%.

End FY, well that's another story.  By then 50% is a given, That's if they stick to producing 25 Million units this FY like they stated in their Financial report.

About HW sales increases: if Europe is indicative of a more global trend, HW sales boosts favored by WiiFit for Wii and GTA IV for PS360 launches seem quite time limited:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=X360&reg3=Europe&start=39222&end=39586

A lot of people used to claim GTA 4 was the reason that the Wii would not reach 50% this year. That's obviously not the case.

Right now, we're observing two things in the market:

(1) Sales of its competition (Xbox 360, PS3) are slowing
(2) Supply (and therefore sales) of the Wii is increasing

Wii Fit will increase demand for the Wii in the US over the long term. Right now, Wii Fit is sold out and is selling on ebay for $150-$180. It may be a while until my preorder with Target is finally filled.

The biggest question here is clearly Wii supply.  Will the Wii supply increase to meet demand?  Will Nintendo hit their goal of 2.4 million/month soon?