Now Do You Think Nintendo Will Reach 50% Market?

[Magera]

Oyvoyvoyv said:
Okay, time to put some facts.

Current gap between Wii and Ps360 = 5360K.

Weeks left of the year: 30

Total sales pr week needed: Ps360 + 178K

So far this year, Wii has sold 6938K.

Ps3 has sold 3838K

X360 has sold 2880K.

Ps360 has sold 6718K.

Wii has sold 220K more than Ps360, or an average of 10K more pr week. At that rate, it would take 10 years to make it, but of course, the rate won't stay.

Last 2 months (9 weeks):

Wii: 3859K

Ps3: 1882K

X360: 1477K.

Ps360: 3359.

Wii outsold Ps360 by 500K, or about 55K/week. By this rate it would outsell Ps360 by FY '10.

Last month (5 weeks):

Wii: 2409K

Ps3: 1162K

360: 902K

Ps360: 2064K.

Difference: 345K. Weekly; 69K/week.

By this rate it would make it within christmas '09.


PS: Holiday seasons will not make that big an effect, as the total sales difference isn't super-majorly increased, but of course, it flaws.

For Wii to outsell Ps360 by 178K/week, it would have to break even in Others (sell as much as ps360) (it is currently selling 35K less/week.)

In Japan it would have to increase to 80K/week (it is selling 45K/week more currently, but here holiday should give a major boost, as Ps360 doesn't sell a lot)

In America it would have to sell 90K more /week, compared to 10K/week so far this year. During the last 2 months, it has sold about 60K/week more, and with holiday it could make 80K/week.

This means, that for Wii to outsell Ps360, it would need to average:

Japan: 110K

Others: 200K

America: 250K

WW: 560K/week. Or 2426K/month.

The above estimation includes holiday seasons, but has perhaps not taken it into big enough account. Real number might be closer to 2600K/month.

Finally, Someone with some hard facts to back up their reasoning. (Not to say no one else has any but this just puts it exactly how I wanted to see it).

 The only way Nintendo is going to get 50% market share this year is if they increase production to 2.4 mill a month as of this very week, (not a gradual increase), and/or they express ship some of January's stock for christmas this year and sell out completely.

I believe they would need to sell a minimum of 14 Million Wii's by end Dec this year (Preferably 15 Million if the express ship some of Jan units). to even come close to getting that 50%.

End FY, well that's another story.  By then 50% is a given, That's if they stick to producing 25 Million units this FY like they stated in their Financial report.