I just keep thinking this to myself now if you look closely at last year NPD data and this data, this year the Wii is doubled in terms of sales in North america alone, which means even with 11 million people have one there are still many people wants a Wii. And its still sold out, does this mean that Wii was selling like pancakes "literally"? How many percent of the population before Wii is saturated?

Well the Wii is aiming for a larger segment of the population than the PS2 did, and that sold over 40M in the US alone. Wether you believe the Wii will top the PS2's sales record or not, it'll have to go a lot higher than it to have achieved anything describable as saturation.

Do you mean that it can sell till 50 million or over that till ninty wants? So my prediction atleast 75 million isnt far fetced after all. OR IS IT?

I still dont get it why Ninty wants mass produced their consoles, the reason why my theory about Wiis have TV/radio status in terms of sales.

i think that wii will saturate twice: in 2011-2012 and at the end of this generation, before 2011-2012 there is plenty great games that will sell wii. wii fit alone will keep high sales till the end of 2009 and there are wii music and wii motor sports series coming to the system(plus games like avalanche 1080, skate it and many other titles that will interest core gamers, casual gamers and both at the same time). plus there is still a lot of people that have ps360 or will buy one of these consoles and will buy wii for exclusive games. so wii will saturate twice:
first when everyone who want to buy wii right now will have one(casuals, nintendo fans, people who will be interested in wii exclusives, jrpgs etc.)
second when everyone who have ps360 will have wii, after some price drops during the end of this generation so they will be able to play wii games that weren't on ps360 or pc(i'm not telling that all ps360 owners will have wii but those who will want to play every good game this generation will have one)

Well Nintendo DS already past 70 million mark in its three years and it still selling in 100-200, 000 rate so which means this is what Ninty wants?

I would say about 3%

If you think about demand for the Wii, you have to assume that a vast pool of people want a Wii. The question is, by the time they are able to buy one freely, will they still want one?

The answer is obviously yes. Ha!

So do you mean in this current rate Wii have userbase of 150 million worldwide? WOW that will be impressive! The question is is it possible? PS2 is the most popular and yet it have to sell 150 million in its lifecycle. Which is 8 years

yes but ps2 have mostly core gamers and really small percent of casuals compared to wii(about 30-40%) who are mostly men who wanted to play some sports game and very little women who were interested only in games like singstar, ddr and so on. wii have for the first wave:

ps2 owners,

nintendo consoles owners from the past(nes, snes, n64),

gc owners,

casuals that weren't interested in games before(old people, women and men between 20-50 year old),

kids, teens and their parents,

ds owners,

people who want to have next generation console, but missed last gen and want to try some old games,

core gamers that aren't interested in FPSs, don't care about hd graphic(or don't have hd tv) or can't afford ps360 consoles,

people who want some party console(for family, friends etc),

people who will buy wii only for certain games(wii fit, wii sports, skate it, japan style games and so on),

ps360 owners who want to try something new and play games that won't be released on ps360,

pc gamers who will be buying wii as their first console,

people who were interested in the past generations in typical console games that were on ps2 and aren't on ps360 right now,

and for the second wave:

ps360 and pc gamers who will be buying wii at the end of this generation when the price of wii will be at 80-100$ or less just to now what they missed,

people who will buy wii after wii2 release, because of shortages of its predecesor(probably),

casuals who will be buying wii just because of its low price

i think that first wave will saturate when wii will hit at least 120mln and the second wave shoud give aditional 30-50mln(i think that at least 1/3 ps360 owners will end up with wii).

So theres a chance for Wii to have a userbase of 150 million worldwide in span of 6 years.

As long as the Wii upstream the market I think Wii will have the attention of core gamers but only IF