Hello you all! It's my first post over here!

I like to see VGChartz once a week to check how sales are going for my 2 consoles.

So now we have:

18.890.000 for XBOX360

12.610.000 for PS3

If they keep selling 120.000/170.000 in medium we have by the end of the year 2008:

30 weeks x 120.000 = 3.600.000

30 weeks x 170.000 = 5.100.000

22.490.000 for XBOX360

17.710.000 for PS3

The gap between them will be 4.780.000

If PS3 continues to mantain a medium of + 50.000 it will close the gap in:

4.780.000 / 50.000 = 95.6 weeks

It will close the gap in aproximatily 2 years

If this generation lasts for 6 years we will have this final sales by 2011 (because XBOX360 was launch in 2005):

30 weeks for the rest of 2008

48 x 3 (2009, 2010 and 2011) = 144 weeks

Total weeks to end cycle = 144 + 30 = 174 weeks

18.890.000 + (174 x 120.000) = 39.770.000 for XBOX360

12.610.000 + (174 x 170.000) = 42.190.000 for PS3

PS3 takes the win but pretty close ha? :)

I don't want to do this stats for the Wii..... Everyone knows what's happening.... LOL! :)

Nice numbers.

But I guess if you visit here often you will know of the flaws in them, like a lack of a Christmas period each year, and sales will likely slow down for x-box next year compared to PS3, and PS3 may slow down the year after but also may last a year longer ('last' being used to indicate significant sales, not the total lifespan)

Many other factors too, and some of the Sony fans might be in here with lists of game releases that will supposedly increase PS3 sales massively.

Personally I think the 360 number you ended up with seems pretty good, perhaps the balance of no Christmas sales, but no drop off in later life worked each other out.

I expect about 35 million for 360.
I expect the PS3 to almost certainly sell over 50 million, perhaps ending in the late 50s

However it ends up, Sony will be hurt the worst, the 360 is the new boy on the block and is pis*ing on all of Sonys lamposts..

The next gen will be the real fight when all Three systems are a bit more equal in terms of the amount of time the brand names(Playstation,Nintendo,Xbox) have been on the market.

Nintendo wins this gen killing Sony previous domination...

One problem, why 170k vs 120k? Both consoles have had much higher sales than that this year, and with the Christmas season increasing those massively, your numbers are a lot too low

Seriously flawed just assuming the sales numbers remain constant. Epic fail. What about price cuts? AAA game releases?

Thank you for posting this.

First off welcome to the site. I agree with your calculations and if you carry on posting threads like this I'm sure you will become very popular.

However, that said, the product lifecycle will not remain the same throughout the generation. As you can see from the graph below that products go through a cycle and the PS3 is currently going through its period of growth and I would hazard a guess by saying that the 360 is reaching maturity.

These sales will not remain the same forever, you may find that next year these average sales would have increased. In two or three years you may even find that the sales will decrease as it comes to the end of its maturity stage.

 No list? how disapointing.

I would have thought by now (GTAIV) people would realise "AAA games" on the PS3 and 360 make little impact, perhaps in a specific region a specific game can boost hardware 20% for a couple of weeks but that will be about it.

 PS3 sold nearly 300k on GTA launch week, and he says that is average saelsare 170k,so that is quite a large difference

MGS 4 will cause a very large jump in PS3 sales when it is released, even if it is just a short term boost, but think of the impact of FF XIII in Japan, that will double the sales for a while

no christmas in your world? xD

Also the reintroduction of the 80 gig PS3 and the MGS bundle will provide longterm growth not short term.