There's pretty much no chance of that happening.  Be realistic.  It's a neat idea, don't get me wrong, but the only thing that will be better than Wii Sports this generaion in terms of bringing popularity to a console may be Wii Fit (which will never outsell Wii Sports, of course). 

NEVER ....until 2010

Nice analysis, and I agree, that if you're going to make a projection, it should start from the PS3 price drop, since that was the major turning point in PS3 sales.

Retrasado, nice to see that you have good arguments to back up your opinions. I think PS3 will pass 360 in sales propably after holidays 2009.

hmm XBOX360 had a 7 million lead when PS3 came out, now its 6,3 million that's only 700 thousand gain in 1,5 years... but then again PS3 had a really slow start but its starting to selll quite well... so around year 2010 at the earliest I think.

You would love to see that huh?Logically the PS3 is not going to slow down anytime in the near future for two reasons;software and demand.As this year has shown,the PS3 has been outselling the 360 for every month so far at  a price disadvantage and software disadvantages largely due to demand for the system which has been the case for GTA 4 in which the PS3 outsold the 360 by over 90k the week the game was released.If anything demand will pick up even greater when a new price cut is revealed and the new games for the system hit this year MGS4,LBP,Haze,Socom,Tekken 6,Resistance 2,GT5P(already out),Motorstorm 2,Naruto,also next year looks even more promising than this year for the PS3.

the PS3 is going to slow after the MSG4 effect. But 360 is going to slow too, even before. At least until the fall expected pricecuts

 How do you figure that when it will still be higher than average weekly sales due to demand.People will prefer a PS3 to a 360 with the games Sony has to offer this year which are no doubt more anticipated than most of the 360's.

All I'm trying to say is a lot can and has happened in the last year and can and will happen in this one, so we really have no idea when (if) the PS3 will pass the 360. Given the trend over the past few months for the gap between PS3 and 360 sales to widen in favor of the PS3, I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to say that it is possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 by June, 2009. However, in order to manage this, the PS3 will have to continue to widen the sales gap between the 360 and REALLY outsell it this christmas. If it does not do that, I seriously doubt the PS3 will reach the 360 until 2010.

I'm expecting the worldwide lead to swap mid to late 09.  The main reason I'm guessing a little earlier is Blu-Ray.  I think now the format war is over and HD TV is around in increasing numbers of channels, people are going to be more willing to buy into the whole high def thing.  And there aren't really many reasons to buy a Blu-Ray player that's not a PS3 right now.

Additionally, I think in traditional Playstation style, we're going to see much improved graphics in future generations of PS3 games.  Developers have long been complaining about the difficulty of programming PS3 vs the ease of the 360.  Another way of looking at this is that current games are already getting quite a lot from the 360 as it's just like programming for a PC, while they're probably nowhere near 100% yet on PS3.  The same was true on PS2, and games coming out even now are still making noticeable improvements on what has gone before.

I think this Christmas the sales on Blu-Ray are going to start picking up to meaningful amounts and that will start eating into the 360s lead pretty quickly.  The PS3 exclusives I believe are going to look better than games available on the 360, although I expect the big budget games to remain primarily cross-platform.