ok, I'm confused, this starts out as a question, but ends in a statement.

you win money if you are closer than the average. You lose money if you are farther away than the average.

Sorry I forgot the sign

Isn't there some kind of absolute bracket that you need to fall within to get anything back ?

if you bet the averages for every game, you will make VG$0, or in other words just get back whatever you put in. the overall average is typically around 50%, so you can easily make money. I have a table in this thread somewhere I'll go look it up that shows how much money you make based on what the average vote is.

It was easier to find this than I thought

It depends on what the average bet is. The equation goes something like this

(1-(diff/actual))/(average accuracy)*bet

so using your example we get the following scenarios

However, I am yet to see someone make more than 50% off of a bet, so I have a feeling there is a cap, but I haven't seen the equation yet. Also, you would have to get very lucky for everyone to bet so far off, and you be so close.

As you can see, the better you do, and the worse the average does, the more likely you are to win VG$.

I don´t understand the table.

Hang on... what's going on there.

If I do the equation you said on the 50% accuracy row, I get 1,400 for the 1k bet, which is $400 profit..... but for the 500 bet it comes to 700, or a $200 profit.

In fact your whole $500 bet column doesn't add up.... as long as everything else is the same, if you bet double you should get double the profit/loss..... so both "0"s should be on the same row.

you have to read the example up above. the person who bet 1k only had a 70% accuracy, while the person who bet 500 had 90% accuracy. You can easily see this by where they earn VG$0.

So to break even or make a profit the person who bet VG$1k needs the average accuracy to at or below 70%, while the person who bet VG$500 needs the average accuracy to be at or below 90%.

I could create a graph where all 3 variables change, but that would just get really confusing

I'm going to go get some food. When I come back if you are still confused I'll try to make an easier to read graph/table/plot or whatever works.

Ah aplogies.... I missed the bit about the different predictions and was using the same accuracy for both.