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TWRoO on 24 April 2009
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nordlead said:

It was easier to find this than I thought

Tbone said:
Nord.

If someone bets on a game VG$1k for a game selling 50k and his prediction was 35k does he earn more money than someone who predicted 45k and bet VG$500.

It depends on what the average bet is. The equation goes something like this

(1-(diff/actual))/(average accuracy)*bet

so using your example we get the following scenarios

average Accuracy 1k bet 500 bet
100 -300 -50
90 -222.222 0
80 -125 62.5
70 0 142.8571
60 166.6667 250
50 400 400
40 750 625
30 1333.333 1000
20 2500 1750
10 6000 4000
1 69000 44500

However, I am yet to see someone make more than 50% off of a bet, so I have a feeling there is a cap, but I haven't seen the equation yet. Also, you would have to get very lucky for everyone to bet so far off, and you be so close.

As you can see, the better you do, and the worse the average does, the more likely you are to win VG$.

Hang on... what's going on there.

If I do the equation you said on the 50% accuracy row, I get 1,400 for the 1k bet, which is $400 profit..... but for the 500 bet it comes to 700, or a $200 profit.

In fact your whole $500 bet column doesn't add up.... as long as everything else is the same, if you bet double you should get double the profit/loss..... so both "0"s should be on the same row.