^selnor needs to come in here too lol.

Just doing year over year for January-April 2007 vs. January-April 2008 * 2007 sales shows this for 2008:

So without any considerations of games, price cuts, etc, YoY would give you this (Americas, Others, Japan):

But when I apply factors like games, when there were price cuts last year, etc, and scale the raw projection results accordingly I get this:

I would also have to agree that this is a good topic unlike the others this guy posts. I must give it my respects and answer the question.

I wasn't much of perdiction guy to begin with but I said 22mil Wii's 12mil Ps3's and I don't remember what the 360 was to begin with but I think it will end with 24-25mil

I still think those perdictions are reasonable.. except maybe for the wii...

My Jan predictions are in my sign. They went wrong for 2 reasons:

* PS3 started selling lik bazookas after the New Year (their Holiday 07 wasn't spectacular) for reasons that I still am not aware of (Blu-ray winning disc format war doesn't explain such a huge increase for PS3 to me)

* MS wasn't as aggressive with pricing of the X360 as I believed they would be.

My current predictions for 2008 have 2 scenarios:

If there is only a minor drop of X360 in price ($50 NA) and none for PS3:
X360: 10 million (barely)
PS3: 13 million

But if X360 drops say $50 soon (NA only) and another $50 (WW) for Holidays, PS3 will drop it's price too:
X360: 11,5 million
PS3: 15 million

All console sales have been higher than I expected in 2008, especially the PS3. (I had sales increasing by 25%, but they've been up over 50% this year.) Aside from that, things have pretty much played out exactly as I thought they would. I'm sure my endyear prediction totals will end up too low, but I'm still pretty happy with them.

lol, thanks

TheSource: I think you're lowballing those DS figured for Japan. isn't Dragon Quest IX likely to release this year?

Just a few days ago, I did a projection based upon 2007 sales percentage of the first four months of 2007 vs. the rest of 2007 (which gave me a first-four-months range of 22% to 26%), and then applied it to 2008. The results were thus:

System / EOY 2008 Sales Best-Fit Range
Wii / 21,253,230 to 25,117,454
PS3 / 12,480,661 to 14,749,872
360 / 9,360,496 to 11,062,404
DS / 26,382,530 to 31,179,354
PSP / 14,847,915 to 17,547,536

Then I calculated their overall market presence by 2008 based on that.

System / Cumulative Best-Fit Range / Market Share Best-Fit Range*
Wii / 40,492,734 to 44,356,958 / 44.44% to 48.73%
PS3 / 21,269,845 to 23,539,056 / 22.94% to 26.32%
360 / 25,390,565 to 27,092,473 / 27.22% to 30.49%
DS / 90,193,079 to 94,989,903 / 65.68% to 68.13%
PSP / 44,438,520 to 47,138,141 / 31.87% to 34.32%

Details of the process behind getting these numbers can be found in the topic I posted it in: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=25684

Now I suppose I just wait for somebody to tell me that I'm over-thinking it...

i was thinking

360:9m
ps3:13.5m




seeing how the ps3 sold 3.2 and the 360 sold 2.4 in 4 months mutiply that by 3 you get 1 year and thats

9.6 for ps3 and 7.2m for the 360.........add 500k for each week 6 weeks for the xmas rush thats 3m for ps3

add 300k for 360 xmas rush thats 1.8m for the 360 holliday boost


12.6m for ps3
9m for the 360


but hey game boost can boost the ps3 too 14m and the 360 too 11m :)

so my final say is 14m ps3 and 11m 360

Whats great about this year is that every platform has increased (besides the DS but thats not as issue as it dominates anyway). The market is showing very healthy expansion.