Never.

Unless, Wii will get 99$ price in next 1-2 years, then there is some chance.

Yeah, because we all know that right now price is the limiting factor in Wii sales...

/sarcasm off 

How does never sound. i know the wii is doing well but not 50% market share well, and if it does then i will blame the poor x360 sales , come on microsoft you need to step up to the plate and show everyone what hd consoles can do, dont leave all the work up to the ps3

I dunno why, but I'm pretty sure it'll happen eventually. Like someone pointed out above, Wii easily outsold BOTH HD competitors COMBINED during their biggest release of this generation. And it's supply constrained. Plus, Nintendo will increase production by 600k soon, and -should it be necessary- they can always cut Wii's price.

I'd put the odds at ~40%.

My Three Scenarios are basically:

Wii hits 80-110 million.  Wii hits 140-160 million.  Wii hits 190-230 million.

Xbox 360 hits 40-55 million. Xbox 360 hits 55-70 million. Xbox 360 hits 25-40 million.

PS3 hits 25-45 million. PS3 hits 45-65 million.  PS3 hits 65-85 million.

Personally, I think it will be 150 million/70 million/45 million or so. Eventually, Wii will top both but its not going to happen in the next year, and probably not for at least 18 months.  Xbox 360 and/or PS3 will need to slow down first which I think will happen in 2010 for one of the two. Wii will still be selling to people like my mom from its audience momentum who don't give a damn about graphics but want things like Wii Fit. If Wii slows down first though, it probably won't top 50% of the market. My hunch is Wii will peak at 55-60% market share because of the new audiences...so the question is how big does the new audience market get.    

It looks like its on a very slight downslope since the beginning of the year, so I'm not sure why you think its "picking up". GTA IV will prop it up once all the numbers are in but after the boost wears off it will be back to pretty much a horizontal line.

@topic,

There is a small chance the Wii can still do it this year, it depends heavily on the success of Wii Fit and how agressive Nintendo is with shipments.  But I do think it will cross 50% before July '09. 

 ehh... the PS3 might hang in bit longer because of MGS4. (I know a lot of people who are planning on getting the bundle) but who knows?

OT: Probably not before mid-2009. (I came to roughly the same conclusion Source did)

Wii fit will outsell the PS3 over it's lifetime.

I'd say within a year.

BTW

Wow. That's impressive this is even debatable.

Very unlikely.

My prediction is early 2009.