I'd put the odds at ~40%.
My Three Scenarios are basically:
Wii hits 80-110 million. Wii hits 140-160 million. Wii hits 190-230 million.
Xbox 360 hits 40-55 million. Xbox 360 hits 55-70 million. Xbox 360 hits 25-40 million.
PS3 hits 25-45 million. PS3 hits 45-65 million. PS3 hits 65-85 million.
Personally, I think it will be 150 million/70 million/45 million or so. Eventually, Wii will top both but its not going to happen in the next year, and probably not for at least 18 months. Xbox 360 and/or PS3 will need to slow down first which I think will happen in 2010 for one of the two. Wii will still be selling to people like my mom from its audience momentum who don't give a damn about graphics but want things like Wii Fit. If Wii slows down first though, it probably won't top 50% of the market. My hunch is Wii will peak at 55-60% market share because of the new audiences...so the question is how big does the new audience market get.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
