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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Rakes It In... But For How Long?

kylohk said:
^Those analysts just don't know what they are talking about really. I mean, how is it even mathematically possible? Even if the Wii stops selling completely, you can't really sell 12 million in 7 months.

Sales rates take time to increase, even if something gets increasingly popular.

you can't...at least you are the Wii... :p



 1   2   3  not only you and me.

Livin' in sin is the new thing.

                         

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FishyJoe said:
"This reflects a simple fact: Fewer consumers will be blowing their paychecks on video games if the economy turns south."

Yet the game market and especially Nintendo sales have demonstrated the opposite. The economy has turned south, or has he not been watching the markets for the last six months.

So it's neither simple nor a fact.

 I should know better than to comment on this, in the Nintendo section, on a week when there has been some truely pathetic articles against the Wii but all the hate here is kind of stupid.  Since I don't care to adress it all I will only comment on this.  The economy sucks atm fishyjoe, but it doesn't suck that bad, atleast away from the east coast, out west it isn't to bad.  People, instead of going on vacation somewhere are deciding to spend their money on a video game console, mostly the Wii atm.  If the economy gets worse, then those casuals that Nintendo is trying to pick up won't want to waste any money on frivolous things like video games.  Thus causing the slow down that the article is talking about.  The core gamers will continue to buy systems and games because that is what they love and they will find a way.  Maybe some of them pick up a Wii, maybe some see value in the PS3/360.  Also, if the economy does get worse, that means the dollar is worth less against the yen and the money they make from America is worth as much, dropping their profits for the next year.  Try to lay off the caffein people, take a deep breath, this is posted on businessweek, not like it is a gaming website that "feels threatened" by the Wii or some other bull.  Just looking at the future money making opportunities for Nintendo.



solracbrit said:

 

1.-The company’s forecasts for this year are far less impressive...

what? He has just pointed that not even a slowing economy and an unfavorably strong Japanese yen could get in Nintendo’s way, and then he just say this? As far as I know nintendo will be shipping 25 million units for Wii this fiscal year and 28 million for the DS. The Wii will likely end at 50 million for the next fiscal year and the DS at 100 million. I don't lnow you guys, but for me this numbers sound impressive to me.He said could, that is past tense. Last year that couldn't stand in the way of Nintendo making big profits. He is projecting that the dollar is going to be worth less, so all those systems that Nintendo is going to ship isn't going to bring them the money they did last year.

2.-This reflects a simple fact: Fewer consumers will be blowing their paychecks on video games if the economy turns south. And of the big three video game console makers, Nintendo is the one that stands to lose the most if a recession hits

Really? I should start to read between lines because I can't see as clearly as him how does this numbers reflect that fact. If a recession hits, wouldn't be Nintendo the one to stand the best because its console and games are the cheapest? I can't see him considering that point, not even mention it.Look at my post when I addressed fishyjoe, if Nintendo is targetting casuals, then when times get rough, these casuals aren't going to be looking towards a video game system like a core gamer would. Core gamers will pass out the rough times with their games, casuals will ride out the tough times with things they are a core consumer for, books, movies, whatever. Video games are an expensive hobby.

3.-Slowing sales of the portable DS in Japan.

Ok, this one was the funniest...how can this be consider as a sign of weaknes when DS has sold 20 million units and 100 millions games faster than any other console ever in Japan? has this guy seen the top 50 in Japan where games that were realese years ago still make the top 20 and even the top 10? Also this year we'll see the launch of Dragon Quest, the biggest franchise in Japan...*sigh*.....The DS already sold those units, already sold those games, that money is already in the bank. With them getting less money from the US and sales of the DS slowing because it has already sold so much, that means less money coming in. Sure dragon quest is going to give it a boost, big franchises will do that. But a 3rd party game doesn't bring in as much money to Nintendo as a first party or a system being sold. it will probably have the same effect as halo 3 did on the 360, spike in consoles that will go back to normal later and a spike in games sold that will go back to normal later.

 

I don't know about you guys, but I've been here for a while and I still remember how the chartz look like when the PS2 was the king, but I cannot remember a single article calling it a fad, a vulnerable console...Everybody knew it was not as powerfull as the other 2 machines and nobody cared. I don't know what's the problem with this people, why can't they let the little white box be? Now I believe this is all a complot by Microsoft and sony and even some third parties in order to stop nintendo's rising...It sounds wear, call me a fanboy if you want, but I cannot think in a better excuse...

What do you think?All right I will call you a fanboy. Sony/Microsof/Third Parties aren't going to pay off business weekly to have this written for them.

 


Ok, I had to adress this also, it just bugged me to much.



@ cwbys21:
You make some excellent counterpoints, but I would submit that you're not completely correct yourself. Taking your bolded comments one at a time...

1) You are mostly correct that the exchange rate between the yen and the euro/dollar is starting to lead to decreased profits for Nintendo and other Japanese companies. However, the article itself points out that Nintendo is countering this by ramping up production to meet the as yet unfilled demand. If reports are to be believed, the increase will amount to 33%. I kind of doubt that the yen will appreciate anywhere near that much relative to the dollar and euro. I believe that is part of why many of the posters here are so dubious.

2) This point is highly theoretical, and as far as I know it has not yet seen a single shred of evidence to support it. It is true that "casuals" (hate that word so very much...) have historically not spent as much on videogames as their "hardcore" (hate that word even more...) counterparts. But that was before Nintendo started drawing more people into gaming, i.e. before they really gave video games a second thought. I would submit that those folks are now perfectly willing to spend their money on video games in lieu of other forms of entertainment, as the long lines and pre-orders for Wii Fit is showing. Granted, they may not be as devoted to the hobby as some of us are, but then it's not exactly like we don't spend money on other forms of entertainment ourselves. Furthermore, other methods of entertainment are equally as expensive: I can buy a new Wii game for $20-50, while it usually costs me $20 to buy a standard DVD and $30 to buy a High Definition one. And I will be entertained by my game for much longer than I will by the movie. My conclusion: wait and see if this comes true. I personally doubt it will have as big of an effect as some people think.

3) Two points here. First, it's true that last year's sales are, by definition, already sold. However, as Iwata himself argued in his investor's reports, the DS has been showing a highly unusual pattern in its decline.

 http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/080425/06.html , chart labelled "platformcycle for portable hardware. My apologies for not inserting it, but I still seem unable to embed images for whatever reason: they just vanish mysteriously. Much like my paycheck, come to think of it.


As you can see, DS sales haven't had the dramatic decline that previous consoles have: it's been far more gradual, and there's little to indicate that that won't continue. And software sales have actually continued to increase on the DS, rather than decline.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/080425/06.html , next chart down.

Add to that the fact that while the DS is declining in Japan, it is still doing very, very well for itself in the U.S. and Europe. Sure, the exchange rate may hurt Nintendo a bit, if it continues, but I think you're overestimating its effects if you feel that alone would explain the article's pessimism.

4) Alright. I got nothin'. I think we can just agree to call that an overreaction, as Nintendo fans have been having a rather ludicrous week thanks to the media, and hope that things settle down soon.

P.S. Some people have walked me through how to embed images, but it's still not working for me. Can anyone suggest somewhere that I can research what's wrong, so that I may spare us all in the future? Thanks in advance. 



Well, they've been 'raking it in' for 20 some years now, so I'll assume they'll keep on trucking, to some degree or another, for quite a while.



Crusty VGchartz old timer who sporadically returns & posts. Let's debate nebulous shit and expand our perpectives. Or whatever.

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Some of what Nintendo loses at a weak U.S. Dollar, they gain at the Euro and the other currencies in Europe as we probobly already overpaid for our games and consoles compared to those who live in U.S before the fall of Dollar.

In Sweden a fullpriced game probably cost us almost as much as 2 U.S. fullpriced games, not counting that a part of the difference is VAT. Same, but not as bad goes for consoles. Probably similar situation around Europe.

And with ramped up production of Wii consoles, mega sellers such as Wii Play, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit plus whatever might come after summer, it will only get better and maybe third party situation gets better to.



It's over, Nintendo is finished.



Once again mainstream media has written a poorly researched and highly contradictory article.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

 

 

cwbys21

He said could, that is past tense. Last year that couldn't stand in the way of Nintendo making big profits. He is projecting that the dollar is going to be worth less, so all those systems that Nintendo is going to ship isn't going to bring them the money they did last year.

I don't know if "could" is called "past tense", but what is certain, is that it is supposition. So the only reason it couldn't stand in the way last year is because it's been disproven already.How come a supposition is becoming a fact for you ? This is evidenced by the fact that you say "all those systems that Nintendo is going to ship isn't going to bring them the money they did last year". You just plain don't know that. Now, why did the OP analyst (who was proven wrong time and again, and always had bad things to say about Nintendo) cited negative possibilities, and no positive ? That doesn't look like a balanced professional article to me. Especially since the shipping to Europe will alleviate the weak dollar. The latest Nintendo charts showed 36 % of sales in NA, and 51 % in Others (Europe + Australia + others).


Look at my post when I addressed fishyjoe, if Nintendo is targetting casuals, then when times get rough, these casuals aren't going to be looking towards a video game system like a core gamer would. Core gamers will pass out the rough times with their games, casuals will ride out the tough times with things they are a core consumer for, books, movies, whatever. Video games are an expensive hobby.

The problem is that all of this is based again on one single supposition : "if Nintendo is targetting casuals".

What's worse, is that it's written with the meaning of "if Nintendo onlyis targetting casual".

Of course, that's not the case at all, so the point is moot.


*sigh*.....The DS already sold those units, already sold those games, that money is already in the bank. With them getting less money from the US and sales of the DS slowing because it has already sold so much, that means less money coming in. Sure dragon quest is going to give it a boost, big franchises will do that. But a 3rd party game doesn't bring in as much money to Nintendo as a first party or a system being sold. it will probably have the same effect as halo 3 did on the 360, spike in consoles that will go back to normal later and a spike in games sold that will go back to normal later.

OK.



I don't understand that even when Nintendo is doing well, it still has to have a doom and gloom prediction. Why can't it be the assumed "always" success that Sony always creates even when they are suffering extreme loss. Yeah recession will have an effect but perhaps some of the reason for the lower projected figures is because of future endeavors such as research, new product production, etc. It's about time to throw another product out there in the next year or two anyway, but do people really see Nintendo starting to do badly? Where is the evidence?