@ cwbys21:
You make some excellent counterpoints, but I would submit that you're not completely correct yourself. Taking your bolded comments one at a time...
1) You are mostly correct that the exchange rate between the yen and the euro/dollar is starting to lead to decreased profits for Nintendo and other Japanese companies. However, the article itself points out that Nintendo is countering this by ramping up production to meet the as yet unfilled demand. If reports are to be believed, the increase will amount to 33%. I kind of doubt that the yen will appreciate anywhere near that much relative to the dollar and euro. I believe that is part of why many of the posters here are so dubious.
2) This point is highly theoretical, and as far as I know it has not yet seen a single shred of evidence to support it. It is true that "casuals" (hate that word so very much...) have historically not spent as much on videogames as their "hardcore" (hate that word even more...) counterparts. But that was before Nintendo started drawing more people into gaming, i.e. before they really gave video games a second thought. I would submit that those folks are now perfectly willing to spend their money on video games in lieu of other forms of entertainment, as the long lines and pre-orders for Wii Fit is showing. Granted, they may not be as devoted to the hobby as some of us are, but then it's not exactly like we don't spend money on other forms of entertainment ourselves. Furthermore, other methods of entertainment are equally as expensive: I can buy a new Wii game for $20-50, while it usually costs me $20 to buy a standard DVD and $30 to buy a High Definition one. And I will be entertained by my game for much longer than I will by the movie. My conclusion: wait and see if this comes true. I personally doubt it will have as big of an effect as some people think.
3) Two points here. First, it's true that last year's sales are, by definition, already sold. However, as Iwata himself argued in his investor's reports, the DS has been showing a highly unusual pattern in its decline.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/080425/06.html , chart labelled "platformcycle for portable hardware. My apologies for not inserting it, but I still seem unable to embed images for whatever reason: they just vanish mysteriously. Much like my paycheck, come to think of it.
As you can see, DS sales haven't had the dramatic decline that previous consoles have: it's been far more gradual, and there's little to indicate that that won't continue. And software sales have actually continued to increase on the DS, rather than decline.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/080425/06.html , next chart down.
Add to that the fact that while the DS is declining in Japan, it is still doing very, very well for itself in the U.S. and Europe. Sure, the exchange rate may hurt Nintendo a bit, if it continues, but I think you're overestimating its effects if you feel that alone would explain the article's pessimism.
4) Alright. I got nothin'. I think we can just agree to call that an overreaction, as Nintendo fans have been having a rather ludicrous week thanks to the media, and hope that things settle down soon.
P.S. Some people have walked me through how to embed images, but it's still not working for me. Can anyone suggest somewhere that I can research what's wrong, so that I may spare us all in the future? Thanks in advance.
