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Forums - Sales - Wii HW Predictions For the Weeks End April 26, and May 3. (Massive)

bigjon said:
@Darthd

yea, for gamers it will be, but not the general population (casuals, kids, old people, women, etc)

 You're totally right about the Wii's target consumers.

 I totally agree, GTA IV should not impact Wii sales that much. GTA IV is as hard core as we can get 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

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krik said:
bigjon said:
@Darthd

yea, for gamers it will be, but not the general population (casuals, kids, old people, women, etc)

You're totally right about the Wii's target consumers.

I totally agree, GTA IV should not impact Wii sales that much, but Wii sales might impact GTA4 sales. GTA IV is the perfect blend of casual game and hardcore game as we can get


That's better.



krik said:
bigjon said:
@Darthd

yea, for gamers it will be, but not the general population (casuals, kids, old people, women, etc)

You're totally right about the Wii's target consumers.

I totally agree, GTA IV should not impact Wii sales that much. GTA IV is as hard core as we can get


I disagree, I think GTA along with Madden are two of the most casual adult games on the market.

 

Many people that play it, do so for the novelty of killing cops, having sex with prostitutes, ect.

 

They buy it to show other people that they bought it and they are cool. Many of these people wouldn't buy a game that their friends don't consider cool. That's a sad fact.

 

Because of the frat boy market fragment, GTA is one of the most casual, and to me, least respected hardcore games you can buy, right up there with Wii-Fit in they eyes of most haters on this forum.

 

A real hardcore game is Disgaea 3.

 

A real hardcore game is a game most people hate. It's niche. When your hardcore audience is bigger than your casual audience, you probably have the definitions mixed up.

 

Hardcore games only appeal to a certain audience who have acquired a taste for such games.

 

The biggest fallacy in the gaming industry today is the vast majority of gamers whose 7 game a year purchases consiste of Madden, GTA, NCAA, Halo, Guitar Hero, CoD, and Gears, start thinking they are better than the common n00b who buys games, because they like to pretend they are elite and call themselves hardcore.

 

When the truth is, if they were required to play a game that took some amount of mental acquity, or that challenged their emotions or preceptions as to what a game really is, they would say it sucks faster than they could do a horizontal slash with a Wii mote.

 

 

If GTA is as "hardcore" as it gets, then I should probably stop gaming alltogether.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

ZenfoldorVGI said:
MontanaHatchet said:
MANUELF said:
leo-j said:
bigjon said:
PS2 userbase around the time San Andreas was released was what? 90 million or so?

PS360... About 30 million... At best both versions will sell what SA did.

Im beting it will pass 20 million both versions combined.

GTA is bigger than it was when San ANdreas released, I never played it until the psp games, so there are people like me that are now GTA fans.


Not many people play the PSP GTA games trust me, but many people not think play GTAIV because the console cost a lot of money, then GTAIV will sell less than GTA:SA.


Liberty City Stories sold almost 5 million, on the king of bad attach rate no less. How can you say that? Oh, and I couldn't really understand what you were saying, sorry, but what do you mean "not think play?"

And when the preorders for the game look to be nearly double the launch of San Andreas (what was it, 2.4 million for the 360 and 1.6 million for the PS3?) then I'd say it will pass 20 million easily.


I'm not 100 percent convinced it will pass San Andreas all that easily, either, to be honest.

 

20 million would be a 66 percent attach rate to current gen consoles. That's a hell of a feat, but it could certainly do it.

 

I dunno how much better it can do that 66 percent though.

 

The pre-order thing is decisive evidence, however most poeple who own consoles now could still be considered hardcore early adopters who will certainly pre-order right away.

 

In other words, the casuals that bought SA, probably won't buy a PS3 or 360 to play the game if they don't already have one.

 

Who knows though. I see it reaching 15 million at least.

I know, it's like I've never heard of a console selling more over time.

Whenever a big game launches, the sales of whatever system, or systems it launched on permanently stop.

Quick PS3, load up on Disgaea and Hockey games! Your future depends on it! Then again, you're banned, so what's the point of responding?



 

 

Wow... I was a bit short on the Wii actually... Mainly in NA. The only place I was a bit off was Korea, Korea was less than 15k, I thought it could be 40k but the larger sales in NA more than made up for it. I expect my Japan number to be too high when they are released... but oh well. The end result is good : ).



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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radioioRobert said:

i believe the wii will outsell the ps3 and 360 combined


 Good call.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Time for a lot of people to eat a tasty slice of crow ;)



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

trestres said:
GTA4 is the worst of the series, but casuals wont see this.

 crow fest indeed. ;)



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor
: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
kingofwale said:
trestres said:
GTA4 is the worst of the series, but casuals wont see this.

 crow fest indeed. ;)


Well, it was a response to Leo-j, who said "MKWii is the worst of the series, but casuals wont see this". Now that he is permabanned, you can not see it, anyways, its time for people to eat crow, eagle, hawk, chicken, seagul, parrot, etc.

I hope you enjoy your part of the bird bbq! (PS dont eat the feathers)



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies