@ sky render, I have already done that myself.
check this thread:
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=20739

although you should not use the table in the OP as it is innacurate, but the one nearere the bottom I will post here with an explanation.

Regardless, there are a number of reasons why that is quite innacurate, firstly there were 2 million+ consoles available for the launch not 1 million. and secondly you have not taken into account the amount of time it takes to ship the product, I estimated based on the table (I am about to post) that it takes about 5-6 weeks for a produced console to be counted as shipped. (and then it may still be a couple of days until it is on shelves)

I know it's not perfectly accurate, but it's not supposed to be. It's just to give you an idea of the stockpiling effect and how it works in general. The specifics are much messier, but suffice it to say that Nintendo does not and indeed should not ship out every unit produced immediately.

I will be lazy and say the wii will sell 420,000 thousand WW and barely beat the ps3 by 25,000 to 30,000. I also believe the 360 will see the largest percentage increase in sales( from last week) but still behind the wii and ps3.

(I just added March... also the last column should be headed "shipments" but the cell has gone missing)

As you can see the shipped data provided each quarter lines up with the cumulative production column, if you go to 5.84 shipped, then go up the cumulative column by 6 weeks (between January and February) it is about the same.

so the 5.84 shpped at the end of March had been produced by the middle of January, similarly the 9.27 million shipped at the end of June were produced in the middle of April (between 8.4 and 9.9)

The odd ones occur at the end of December because Nintendo decided to use air shipping to get more consoles in before Christmas which is why I estimate the air shipping total to be about 1 million (without air shipping they would only have produced 19.2 million consoles in time (between Oct-Nov))

Similarly I do see some evidence of stockpiling before that Christmas quarter, because 13.17 shipped is not halfway between July and August production, so roughly 500/600k were held back as well.

If you add those two numbers together 1mil + 600k = 1.6 million, then add what they produced for those 3 months anyway (1.8 X 3) 5.4 million, and what do you get?

5.4+1.6 = 7 million, and guess how many Wiis sold in that quarter?

Suffice to say this proves that very little stockpiling actually happens at all, they do stockpile some from Q2 into Q3 which is normal (I imagine they wanted to stockpile a lot more than 600k but they were in a tight space with so much demand)


I have no say in the little weekly "stockpiling" which cannot really be called as such, I imagine Nintendo organises their shipments excellently so that more will go out for big game releases, but this will not effect the big scheme of things and they certainly won't be holding units back now for the next Zelda and they will not even be holding any back for Christmas for at least another 2-3 months. This will be proved if the next quarterly statement has a shipment between the April and May production numbers (which if it is still at 1.8m per month should be pretty much bang on 30 million)

So the table/list you posted skyrender is wildly innacurate, there were not 2.2 million Wii's unsold at the end of December.

And I don't believe the increase to 1.2 million was at the start of December2006 (party becase it had only just launched, so Nintendo would have to be damn quick to realise the after launch demand was going to be too high for 1 mil/month)

Of course putting that increase later should take 600k off your running totals, but that is still 1.6 million unsold at the end of December 2007, I am pretty sure Nintendo was not holding any back at that time.

The exact numbers aren't important in his table in any case. The point is that about 2m more were sold than they could have produced in the time period; hence, the stockpiling. He even says that the numbers are only rough estimates.

(Also, your numbers have about 1.9 unsold at the end of december if I am reading your table correctly; so, uhm, 1.6 isn't too bad...)

^ no they do not, I explained (probably poorly as I am terrible at explaining) that the difference is from the time it takes to ship the consoles.

This was the main problem with SkyRenders workings.... they may have PRODUCED 21.9 million by the end of December, but there is no way all of those could get onto store shelves.

What normally happens is that the produced number is about 5-6 weeks ahead of the shipped number because that is how long it takes for the boats to get from wherever the finished/boxed Wiis are (probably China) to America and Europe. (Japan is obviously quicker though but as it is a constant it works itself out)

So like I said below the table, when you look at the shipped number, you should look over to the left column, then up by 1.5 cells to find how many were produced in time for that quarter.

You can then see evidence of stockpiling whenever the shipment number is too low, or evidence of Nintendos air shipping when the shipment is higher than it.

If you go up 1.5 cells from 21.9, you are half way between 18.3 and 20.1, which is 19.2 million... this is the reason I believe Nintendo air shipped about 1 million consoles (the air shipping being faster than 6 weeks)

hope this holds true!

The PS3 could do 300k... max... the 360 will sell a little less, maybe 250k, if my predictions are correct than the Wii will still outsell PS360 combined... on GTA launch week... an epic slap in the face.

Also, Nintendo is said to be increasing supply to 2.3 million a month, but we do not know when it will take affect.

@leo-j
Wtf are you thinking? Maybe 350k? the Wii sold 430k last week w/ out WiiFit or Korea in the picture or Golden week. The Wii sold 170k in others last week... I think my 220 could be low for other, but I did not want to get ridiculous on my predictions. I did not low ball it, but I was more conservative than I could have been.

I honestly believe Nintendo knew that GTA4 was their biggest hurdle of the year, and they planned for it... they are unleashing Wii from the Week ending April 26th, Until the end of may... then they will pull back supply and start to build a holiday stockpile.

And like I said GTA4 will no doubt overshadow all that week in the world of the gamer... but not in the "blue ocean"