From what I've seen, this gen is far from over. I believe the Wii will at least hit 100 million sales because the Wii is for everyone. I doubt Nintendo will be releasing a new console any time soon until the Wii starts to die out, but, I doubt that'll happen.

Rock_on_2008 said: 200 million you are kidding me. More like 120 million tops.

No, i'm not. I'm just basing it to historical facts about the market expansions and the market share considering the leading console. Please do tell why do you think Wii would sell only 120M, i at least have based my argument wery well, while not a single decent argument have been shown in this thread to prove me wrong. "OMG teh Wii is a fad", "only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo platforms" are no good arguments, especially when facts prove them wrong. In case you haven't noticed, Wii is doing in the market excactly like PSX, 3rd party shovelware with few 1st party hits, slow start, increasing support etc. Expect Wiis demand hit its high, when the 3rd parties publish their hits on Wii, which should be in 2009-2010.

JGarret said: What I want to find out the most is if what Viper said will turn out to be true.

 Which part?

Even if it did make 200 million, that would be way away from that Avanish kid's prediction of "Outselling entire playstation family" (the guy with the sheep avatar).

115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.

RolStoppable said: The Wii will have a lifespan of at least 10 years and averaging 20m over this time makes 200m. It's basic maths, really. The console most similar to the Wii is the NES. Both systems are/were responsible for a drastic change how gaming is/was perceived and how the games are/were played. The NES became the synonym of videogaming and still sold millions of units well after the successor was launched. The NES had the longest lifespan of any system ever made, because due to its enormous popularity, games got still made until the mid '90s. The system launched in 1983 and production was officially discontinued in 2002, I think. The Wii has an advantage that the NES didn't have. As HappySqurriel said, development for the Wii is much cheaper than for the HD systems and depending on how fast and how much 3rd parties will shift their resources, the Wii will get an insane amount of games. Many, many more than the NES ever had and more types of games than the PS2 had. Of course I have to say all this, because of my signature. Lots of stuff will and must happen to make the 75 % marketshare reality (PS3 and 360 will most likely already be discontinued when the Wii hits that number).

 

Rol, the Wii is not going to sell 20 million units every single year until 2016.

Long before then, Sony and MS will have released new consoles, and if that doesn't do it, then the Wii's own successor cause its sales to fall.

 

Shissy said: 115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.

 

I'd agree , 200 million is an absurd number.

 

The PS2 had around 75-80% of the games market and it only manged to sell 120-130 million units.

 

Key Points

*The novelty of the Wii's motion sensing controller won't carry it for 10 years.

*In about 3 years the Wii will be heavily dependant on 3rd party titles after Ninty have used their Mario and Zelda cards for this gen.

* If Microsoft and Sony get the motion sensing control right then that'll further cut the Wii's lifespan.

*The casual market is unpredicatble , they're always looking for the newest and most innovative thing , the Wii can't be that for the next 8 years.

* The Wii already looks dated even in comparison to PS3 , 360 launch titles , whats gonna happen @ the end of this generation , games can only be optimised for the Wii so much.

*If MS and Sony deside to release XBOX 720 and PS4 respectivley then it's basicly game over for the Wii , both are likely to have motion sensing implemented well or some other sort of Next gen control scheme , both will have georgeous HD graphics and both are likely to cost alot less.

 

 

The only way Nintnendo can continue selling is by releasing a Nintendo Wii 2 , and there's not alot of room for improvment , it doesn't need HD graphics (doing so will make it cost similar to PS4,720) , they can do a hard drive this gen , they can improve their online this gen. The only thing I could imagine would sell Wii 2 was another killer controller. 

Wii will not outsell the PS2, let alone get to 200 million.

@Viper

Sorry,didn´t clarify lol.

I mean, where you said (I think in another thread) that starting early next year, we should be seeing a substantial amount of major 3rd party titles being released and announced for the Wii..perhaps even stealing some of them from the PS3/360?

JGarret said: @Viper Sorry,didn´t clarify lol. I mean, where you said (I think in another thread) that starting early next year, we should be seeing a substantial amount of major 3rd party titles being released and announced for the Wii..perhaps even stealing some of them from the PS3/360?

 Ah,OK.

 We've seen a little already in Monster Hunter 3 and Fatal Frame IV.   We've already seen an increase in multiplatform games including the Wii where as last year there was very little of that.

 

I've spoken with a couple of developers who said last year put them at a crossroads with what direction to take their development.  Previously they had planned nothing but PS3/X360 but the Wii is simply too hard to ignore for them.  E3 will hold a lot of surpises.