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Forums - Sales - June 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

Kyuu 2 days ago

Xbox (platform) can return to serious growth, but the price would be Microsoft games regressing to around a third or less of their selling power for several years, which could permanently damage their IP's including COD.

Jez Corden reported that Microsoft is considering the idea of no longer supporting Steam, and many are making fun of them without realizing that it's probably the only way for Xbox to become a big player. Without true exclusives, the platform (or storefront) is dead sooner than later. An "Xbox branded PC" that fully supports Steam is a surefire way to kill the platform/storefront and kill it fast. Only Valve benefits from that.

A more closed PC that exclusively supports the platform holder's store/services is probably Sony's long term goal as well. But it's too risky to go that way when, unlike Microsoft, their core console business is bigger than ever. Back in 2013, Shuhei Yoshida publicly said that Playstation's ultimate goal was to turn into a service compatible with a wide array of devices. Sony would love that, but they don't know how to go about it without the risk of upsetting the fanbase and losing millions and millions of players to other ecosystems.

If I were to guess... at some point in the future Sony will make their storefront and services available on PC/mobile + they will produce cheap hardware (console-like) that's only compatible with said storefront and services. And this seems to be what Microsoft is considering right now.



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Tober 12 hours ago
trunkswd said:
Shadow1980 said:

Haven't done one of these in forever, and it might be my last one in a long while, but I have posted charts in forever, so I'm just going to cross-post what I just posted over at Install Base verbatim.

*snip*

Great work on doing all those charts. I do about a dozen monthly sales comparison charts and know they can take a while to update. 

I agree that if Xbox plays its cards right it can turn things around next-generation. At least possibly to Xbox One levels. This is with having a disc drive option, even as an add-on, and making all single-player focused IPs and classic Xbox IPs exclusive for at least 2 years. Halo, Gears, Fable, and Forza will ONLY be on Xbox/PC, while games like Elder Scrolls and Fallout launch first on Xbox/PC and don't come to PlayStation or Nintendo for 2 years or more.

I think having 2 SKUs given the price situation is a good thing to have. Though, instead of Series S/X have it more like PS5 and PS5 Pro. So you have a decently powered model for $600/$700 and one that crosses the bridge to more PC territory for $1,000+. I know this comes down to the price of RAM and SSDs, and how much Microsoft is willing to lose per console. So the lower powered one could be more at launch. I'd also name the consoles Xbox 7 and Xbox 7 X. Yes, 7. (OG -> 360 -> X1 -> X1X -> XSS -> XSX).

Helix being more of a PC the question is will it have access to other storefronts like Steam and Epic. if Xbox wants to grow the Xbox PC app and willing take a hit on each console sold they either need to not allow access to them at all or at least make all first-party games exclusive to the Xbox PC app (or only allow access to games not available on Xbox / PC Xbox app).

I'd also port World of Warcraft to Xbox 7 as the game already supports controller. Just have it where one subscription is needed for Xbox and PC. Maybe have a WoW and Game Pass bundle that saves a few dollars a month. Ie. WoW is $15/m, while Ultimate is $23/m. So make it $35/m.

Xbox7 is a good name. Subconsciously people associate the number 7 with good luck and success. It's a number with positive vibes. Good call. 



trunkswd 12 hours ago
Tober said:
trunkswd said:

Great work on doing all those charts. I do about a dozen monthly sales comparison charts and know they can take a while to update. 

I agree that if Xbox plays its cards right it can turn things around next-generation. At least possibly to Xbox One levels. This is with having a disc drive option, even as an add-on, and making all single-player focused IPs and classic Xbox IPs exclusive for at least 2 years. Halo, Gears, Fable, and Forza will ONLY be on Xbox/PC, while games like Elder Scrolls and Fallout launch first on Xbox/PC and don't come to PlayStation or Nintendo for 2 years or more.

I think having 2 SKUs given the price situation is a good thing to have. Though, instead of Series S/X have it more like PS5 and PS5 Pro. So you have a decently powered model for $600/$700 and one that crosses the bridge to more PC territory for $1,000+. I know this comes down to the price of RAM and SSDs, and how much Microsoft is willing to lose per console. So the lower powered one could be more at launch. I'd also name the consoles Xbox 7 and Xbox 7 X. Yes, 7. (OG -> 360 -> X1 -> X1X -> XSS -> XSX).

Helix being more of a PC the question is will it have access to other storefronts like Steam and Epic. if Xbox wants to grow the Xbox PC app and willing take a hit on each console sold they either need to not allow access to them at all or at least make all first-party games exclusive to the Xbox PC app (or only allow access to games not available on Xbox / PC Xbox app).

I'd also port World of Warcraft to Xbox 7 as the game already supports controller. Just have it where one subscription is needed for Xbox and PC. Maybe have a WoW and Game Pass bundle that saves a few dollars a month. Ie. WoW is $15/m, while Ultimate is $23/m. So make it $35/m.

Xbox7 is a good name. Subconsciously people associate the number 7 with good luck and success. It's a number with positive vibes. Good call. 

Plus it would be 1 number higher than PS6. While if they went with say Xbox 5 it would be a number below PS6. I think it was only ever rumored, but the reason Microsoft went with Xbox 360 over Xbox 2 is due to Xbox 2 being a number below PS3 and 360 having the 3 in the number to match PS3.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Tober 12 hours ago
trunkswd said:
Tober said:

Xbox7 is a good name. Subconsciously people associate the number 7 with good luck and success. It's a number with positive vibes. Good call. 

Plus it would be 1 number higher than PS6. While if they went with say Xbox 5 it would be a number below PS6. I think it was only ever rumored, but the reason Microsoft went with Xbox 360 over Xbox 2 is due to Xbox 2 being a number below PS3 and 360 having the 3 in the number to match PS3.

Yes, it would show Xbox being combative for a change. The fans will love it.