thinking the same too!

could be worse, especially with no big games coming anytime soon

Worth noting is that a 40k weekly baseline for NS2 would actually set it up quite similarly to NS1 at this point in 2018– Switch 1 wasn’t as hot during this time in JP.

31k is honestly pretty solid considering the abnormal high sales it had in the last 2 weeks

I guess now Switch 2 will head to a pretty similar trajectory that Switch 1 had in 2018 (just with a decent head-up). Things will get interesting again in a few years when they eventually release a Lite model, especially if they strategically release it right before a big game suited for this kind of demographic (something like mainline Pokemon or Animal Crossing)

That's why I expect the new baseline to fall between 25k and 35k. It'll still do well enough but from this point the Switch 1 should close the gap most weeks and eventually overtake it.

IMO I'm looking at this week, and I'm seeing a situation similar to MKWorld immediately after the NS2 bundle had concluded: a large portion of the (at the time) current market of consumers looking to purchase MKWorld in JP had already made their purchase via the bundle. (When 90% of Switch 2 owners already own a copy of MKWorld, then the available install base of consumers who may still be interested in purchasing the game drops significantly, causing sales to plummet in the short-term.) In the case of NS2 right now, a large portion of consumers who were as much as considering purchasing a system likely made that decision over these past few weeks; hence, not much of a market remains for the moment.

It is for this reason why I believe that in a few months time, we should see a higher baseline than currently... though perhaps to play devil's advocate, it is entirely plausible the numbers this week are actually larger than what the baseline will be, with some stores potentially having yet to fully commit to the price hike. That and the lack of "JP appealing" Switch 2 exclusives for the remainder of this year could cause complications. I do anticipate Switch 2 to be in a valley through the rest of 2026 and a portion of 2027, at least until marketing for 3D Mario, Pokémon WiWa, and Switch 2 Lite begin.

Switch 2 having it's worst week after the price increase isn't shocking. Will most likely be 40k+ next week and going forward.
Switch 1 also got hit with the price increase, but it's also having stock shortages, so should be higher next week if there's shipments.
PS5 is PS5. If Sony raises their Japan Model's price it will get worse.
Xbox is Xbox.

That is very possible since at least some of the people there who got one last month would've probably gotten one this Summer otherwise. Splatoon Raiders will help next month though it'll have a smaller impact compared to a Splatoon 4 of course. Something though is the possibility of another price increase down the line. With the way things are going I would not be surprised if another one happens some time next year.

31k is pretty good, take the average of 3 weeks and it is still 180k. Add in 8 more weeks at 30k, and the average is around 65k, still good.

Beaten to it, but 31k's not bad at all considering how inflated the last few weeks were due to people rushing to buy one at the old price, a lot of purchases that would have happened this week and over June were simply brought forward.

Things should stabilize in the medium term, especially with Splatoon Raiders arriving next month, the IP is massive in Japan.

These price hikes really do need to stop though, we're at the limit of what customers will tolerate, and PS5's recent nosedive shows what can happen if you push too far.