I'm not so sure we get the redesigned XB1S in that case. I think XB1 sells well enough that assuming we get a slim, it continues to look like a smaller VCR. Which also means XB1X also probably ends up looking VCR like as well. I think this slightly hinders overall sales potential for all models but the system still sells considerably better overall than it did.

I'm not so sure about the whole BC push. That might've been 50/50 as to whether it happens or not since it wouldn't have been anywhere near as necessary. I'd also guess that GP doesn't happen. Not until 9th gen anyway, if at all. BC probably would've been enough so there wouldn't really be a need for GP.

This also might mean since Don doesn't screw up, he keeps running XB in 9th gen. That or we never get Don and Phil is responsible for all of this.

I'm going to say they sell about 80 million units, give or take.

Interesting, I wouldn't have thought the "VCR" look would really impact sales that much, or that the OG model selling better would prevent a slim from happening; almost every successful console in decades has gotten one.

I can definitely see Gamepass and their PC initiative not happening if the XBO sells considerably better, which would both be changes for the better in my opinion.

"Slightly hinders", so yes, it wouldn't impact sales too much. It's also part of why I said "give or take". Similar to how some don't like or can't stand the look of the PS5, yet most still bought it or will at some point. Few will refrain from buying a PS5 just because of it's look, but those few can still be considered a fair amount when you've got 100M+ sales. Also the PS5 is seen as a good look by most, if not really eye catching, where as the XB1 was seen as a poor look by most, if not an eye sore, so I think it would hurt XB1 more, but again, not by a whole lot, assuming its much better reception in this timeline.

As for the XB1S(lim), I was thinking along the lines of the 360 RROD fiasco and the whole MS mindset of, 'build it big and make sure it has plenty of cooling so we never have to deal with that issue again.' Making a slim really goes against that reliability goal, so it's totally possible they don't bother, especially with the (early) sales being not much worse than PS4 in this timeline. Even if they did do a slim, I'd assume it would be a pretty lousy attempt since they purposely wouldn't want to make it too slim and compact. Last thing you wanna do is ruin the goodwill you've gained by recreating the RROD situation once again with XB1S.

Ya I think BC is way more likely since MS would still wanna do a little extra to try and catch PS4, which is next to impossible for SNY to pull off, and would be a smart move in this alternate timeline still. They'd also probably go harder on BC and back away from GP totally (if GP was something that ever crossed their minds at all in this different situation). The more typical approach this time around could see a hardcore BC push on XB1, which would probably force SNY to get a lot more serious about it as well, especially with physical media. Maybe SNY doesn't get around to it until PS5 though in this timeline.

A slim doesn't necessarily have to compromise decent reliability; the PS4 slim, PS3 slim, Xbox One S, etc were all fairly dependable.

PS4 slim also happened despite the system selling very well, so I think an Xbone slim would still be a thing had it sold better.

Slims are more the norm for SNY vs MS. 360 also didn't shrink near as much as the PS3 did. SNY is a hardware co and MS is a software co, and SNY hardware has always been more advanced overall considering size. PS5 would be the exception, only because of the case design with separate outer plates which limit its compactness. Remove those outer plates from the console and the inner shell is very compact based on what's inside. Also no XBSS/X slims yet this gen.

XB1S, as it shipped, was very well designed and reliable, but that's in this timeline where that was seen as necessary to save the brand. MS was in big trouble after the disaster Mattrick set in motion. In this alternate timeline you propose, MS doesn't have that mindset, since things are going very well for XB1, so there would be little reason to create the XB1S we got. Again, that doesn't MS wouldn't do it, but it wouldn't seem as logical having moved beyond the 360 RROD with the VCR style case, and with XB1 sales being on par with 360 this time in this other timeline. Do you risk a slim, and if you do, do you risk a compact slim, with internal PSU? Not likely in this different timeline.

You don't need to be doing struggling to motivate a slim revision though; PS4 got one. Xbox Series likely hasn't simply due to its poor sales not making the investment worthwhile.

Xbox One S worked just fine, slimming down a console is really not a big risk provided you engineer it properly, if it was we wouldn't have seen pretty much every successful console get one.

MS hasn't put huge effort into the XB hardware until they absolutely had to. That's just how they seem to roll.

The Xboxes that didn't see slim models were the ones with low sales; the OG and Series. If the One sold better than historically, all the more reason to pursue a slim as the sales are there to justify the R&D involved. The 360 saw many revisions, well beyond what was strictly necessary.

The OG was mostly external by third party. 360 was more internal but was poorly executed, even when it came to most of the slims. XB1 was also internal, but was played extra safe because of the 360. The XB1S and XB1X had far more effort applied to them, but only because XB was hurting badly overall and the bulky VCR design was just another thing that had becoming a laughing stock. XBSS/X was internal, but was the first first launch where they truly put significant effort in, and because they still had to.

If XB1 was launched as you stated, not as it was but much more in line with the PS4, then the odds MS would've went from the VCR style to the XB1S would be quite unlikely. MS even made the final 360 design look similar to the XB1 for similarity, just like how the XB1S ended up looking like the XB1X, for the same reason. 

The likelihood that XB1 remains on the bulky side, slim or not, and that the design aesthetic remains similar in this alternate timeline is much more likely than not.

I think you're overestimating the importance of aesthetics in regards to sales. I very doubt a significant number of people passed on the Xbone due to its looks, the problem was more its toxic PR and being just a "PS4 but worse".