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Forums - Sales - March 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

PS5 maybe ~320k

Switch 2 lead in dollars, so minimum is ~375k

I didn't do the calculations comparing with Switch 1 but guess it's close to 400k?

I'm really curious to see PS5 sales next month. PS5 enjoyed a last-minute buying in the last week of the month. Next month the sales will be bellow 200k I think



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IcaroRibeiro said:

PS5 maybe ~320k

Switch 2 lead in dollars, so minimum is ~375k

I didn't do the calculations comparing with Switch 1 but guess it's close to 400k?

I'm really curious to see PS5 sales next month. PS5 enjoyed a last-minute buying in the last week of the month. Next month the sales will be bellow 200k I think

NS2 is more like ~570K for the month.

PS5 should be a little higher than you have at it. ~340K. Though gonna wait on more data from Mat. Hopefully we get some anyway. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

PS5 maybe ~320k

Switch 2 lead in dollars, so minimum is ~375k

I didn't do the calculations comparing with Switch 1 but guess it's close to 400k?

I'm really curious to see PS5 sales next month. PS5 enjoyed a last-minute buying in the last week of the month. Next month the sales will be bellow 200k I think

NS2 is more like ~570K for the month.

PS5 should be a little higher than you have at it. ~340K. Though gonna wait on more data from Mat. Hopefully we get some anyway. 

570k is really crazy for March. Are this estimations based on the lead over NS1 in the same period? 



IcaroRibeiro said:
trunkswd said:

NS2 is more like ~570K for the month.

PS5 should be a little higher than you have at it. ~340K. Though gonna wait on more data from Mat. Hopefully we get some anyway. 

570k is really crazy for March. Are this estimations based on the lead over NS1 in the same period? 

Correct. March 2026 for Switch 2 is higher than November 2025, which is crazy. Pokemon Pokopia has turned into a huge system seller.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

570k is really crazy for March. Are this estimations based on the lead over NS1 in the same period? 

Correct. March 2026 for Switch 2 is higher than November 2025, which is crazy. Pokemon Pokopia has turned into a huge system seller.

What is more interesting is Pokopia is only the 5th best selling games on the month. Granted it doesn't count digital so it might be as well the second or even first best seller 

Guess half of people who got Pokopia bought the console to play it 



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IcaroRibeiro said:
trunkswd said:

Correct. March 2026 for Switch 2 is higher than November 2025, which is crazy. Pokemon Pokopia has turned into a huge system seller.

What is more interesting is Pokopia is only the 5th best selling games on the month. Granted it doesn't count digital so it might be as well the second or even first best seller 

Guess half of people who got Pokopia bought the console to play it 

The physical version of the game sold out, so digital is likely a higher % of sales than your average Switch game.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

IcaroRibeiro said:

What is more interesting is Pokopia is only the 5th best selling games on the month. Granted it doesn't count digital so it might be as well the second or even first best seller 

Guess half of people who got Pokopia bought the console to play it 

I know there was a major shortage in physical copies. Plus the game was GKC (meaning some who may not have been as willing to purchase digitally may have simply not cared enough to hold off). We already know 2 million copies sold within a few days of launch… though for all of this to only translate to 5th place? That must mean there was a very high digital ratio for this game— very uncommon for Nintendo software.

I do wonder if perhaps Nintendo intentionally kept the physical copy in short supply? Same thimg is going on with Tomodachi Life. Nintendo has been pushing toward digital in recent times (with the cost of cartridges getting so out-of-hand) as seen with their recent shift to variable pricing.



IcaroRibeiro said:
trunkswd said:

Correct. March 2026 for Switch 2 is higher than November 2025, which is crazy. Pokemon Pokopia has turned into a huge system seller.

What is more interesting is Pokopia is only the 5th best selling games on the month. Granted it doesn't count digital so it might be as well the second or even first best seller 

Guess half of people who got Pokopia bought the console to play it 

Physical version is heavily supply constrained or sold out. Makes sense, Nintendo's cut is higher if you buy digitally. 

Installbase posters are saying Switch 2 sold more in March than Jan + Feb combined. 



Wow NS2 slaughtered everything



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What a surprise smash Pokopia has been, Tomodachi looking to be another smash, though won’t move as many SW2 units.