Over 1 million at retail in Japan alone is unbelievable. This game looks primed to do very well assuming there is an NS2 Edition coming soon— it’s unfortunate the game wasn’t release midgen. Could’ve ended up with Ring Fit or Switch Sports sales figures LTD.

If SMPJamboree could just barely hit 10M, however, it’s very difficult for me to see a game releasing even later in the gen doing any better. I think 7-8M could be a nice estimate for LTD figure, though I can definitely see 8-10M or even +10M.

I still think 10m is achievable; casual games like this tend to have good legs, and while it is a Switch 1 game, it is also playable on Switch 2 so it should continue to sell for years to come.

Nintendo has reported that Tomodachi Life has now passed "over 8 million" in global sell-through:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2026/260806_2e.pdf

8M sales in 1 quarter would indicate that this game could reach >20M lifetime sales depending on legs. Its already evidently reaching a new audience compared to previous Tomodachi games given its already outsold them, so i guess the new Animal Crossing Switch audience is buying into Tomodachi Life.