PS6 is going to flop. This is going to set up perfectly for the "every third console" curse. 

60% of the time it works everytime.

Well, yes, I think it's clear this is what it always meant.

New games that have physical and digital formats would sell somewhere between 45%-75% digital on Playstation, but as they get older digital ratios go up. But the old games that aren't on shelves don't sell enough to affect the overall split by more than 1-2%. Indies not available physically skew the data more.

I was and still am expecting PS6 to have a disc drive option just like the PS5. And according to some weighty reports, it seems like it will. I think Sony understands that physical media is still a major console selling point and they will want to stick with it for at least one more generation, or the departure to PC would only accelerate. Physical is one of the few remaining distinct console advantages.

Let's not forget that PS5 Digital Edition was not upgradable early on, but the revision enabled you to buy an optional disc drive, which was relatively a pro-physical move. I play on my brother's original PS5 DE, and 100% of our game collection is digital (even though I prefer physical) because I'm forced to buy digital. Had we gotten the revision, I would have later got the optional disc drive and bought most games physically.

With that being said, I think it's the 3rd party publishers, not Sony, that will be ditching physical media left right and centre. Publishers have to pay 55%-65% on manufacturing/packaging and retailer and platform fees. Digital reduces these expenses down to 30% on console and even 12% on some PC storefronts. The rapid PC growth will encourage publishers to drop physical altogether regardless of Sony's support.

As in no more new copies readily being printed. But yeah, there's plenty of used copies. 

What is your source on that 55%-65%? The only information I can find on it is a graph from 2011 that states it is $5 for shipping/manufacturing, $10-$15 to the physical storefront, and the usual 20%-30% cut that digital also pays. 

Physical has also indirect costs, like maintaining relationships (incl. Legal) with distributors, retailers, etc.

Pretty sure we had this discussion before and I gave you a fairly recent link from a reputable source lol, maybe it wasn't enough to convince you. @Zippy6 also shared another link saying the same thing. Curiously, there aren't many topics detailing this.

The articles I read had retailers fees at around 30%. Console platform fees at 30% (digital) and apparently 15% (physical). Printing/packaging/manufacturing/shipping add a percentage that I don't remember. But on the Switch 2, game cards (not GKC) cost some $17 to manufacture. I may be overeretimating the fees by 5% give or take, but the short of it is that it's a big difference from digital.

Another digital advantage publishers love is the inability of the customer to trade or borrow games.

I think Sony will try to oversell their digital ratios to publishers, and at the same time reassure their players that they will continue to support physical.

I'm not sure I understand what the fuzzy math is here. It's pretty clear looking at the rest of the data that they're talking about all digital software and all physical software. You can see this when they talk about revenue. Since the revenue part obviously has to include all the money they make from physical and digital sales of all kinds, it becomes a little strange if the distribution includes specific type of games instead.

Will you then choose to discount physical games being sold at sale or bargain prices just because they aren't the full $70 anymore? What happens to digital games that go on sale? it makes no sense to exclude cheap indie games just because they don't meet a certain price threshold.

That said, the latest version of this data: https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/25q3_supplement.pdf

shows that physical sale revenue and ratio distribution in Q2 and Q3 being improved over Q1. 

Did they say that people are choosing digital or are they just saying "digital downloads made up XX% of sales"?

This discussion is weird as it is odd for them to include certain things but the only want to truely tell how physical is doing vs digital is release figures on games that have physical and digital only, right? 

Proper analysis will need doing which, more than likely, Sony do not care about because they don't care about ratios of physical vs digital, they care about revenue and where it comes from.

Yet, who's to blame? Baldur's Gate 3 was a digital only release when it first launched, physical took 6 months to come out. If I want Shadow of War now, unless I buy used, I have to buy digital which means it will count as a digital sale. Are Sony to ignore these? Shadow of War sold zero, to make physical look better?

Well, if the number of game units is too fuzzy for you, take a look at the revenue (in millions of yen) of physical game software compared with the total game software.

• FY16: 185,287 / 710,970 = 26.1 % physical revenue
• FY17: 157,897 / 920,117 = 17.2 % physical revenue
• FY18: 191,513 / 1,293,744 = 14.8 % physical revenue
• FY19: 116,473 / 1,126,769 = 10.3 % physical revenue
• FY20: 137,932 / 1,592,586 = 8.6 % physical revenue
• FY21: 128,917 / 1,553,377 = 8.3 % physical revenue
• FY22: 193,439 / 1,716,484 = 11.3 % physical revenue
• FY23: 180,250 / 2,220,193 = 8.1 % physical revenue
• FY24: 121,159 / 2,508,083 = 4.8 % physical revenue
• FY25: ~130,000 / ~2,600,000 = ~5.0 % physical revenue

So even with a choice of physical for most AAA titles, the share of physical game revenue has come down from 26 % to 5 % within the last 10 years. Even most PlayStation users who prefer physical discs obviously have no problem to buy digital only software and/or digital add-on content. Or pay for a (100 % digital) PS Plus subscription to "rent" some games and play online.

And if we include the 100 % digital PS Plus revenue (network services), the physical revenue share is even lower:

• FY16: 185,287 / 900,211 = 20.6 % physical revenue
• FY17: 157,897 / 1,191,089 = 13.3 % physical revenue
• FY18: 191,513 / 1,620,269 = 11.8 % physical revenue
• FY19: 116,473 / 1,464,034 = 8.0 % physical revenue
• FY20: 137,932 / 1,975,536 = 7.0 % physical revenue
• FY21: 128,917 / 1,962,732 = 6.6 % physical revenue
• FY22: 193,439 / 2,181,160 = 8.9 % physical revenue
• FY23: 180,250 / 2,765,730 = 6.5 % physical revenue
• FY24: 121,159 / 3,177,956 = 3.8 % physical revenue
• FY25: ~130,000 / ~3,350,000 = ~3.9 % physical revenue

If Sony should decide to fade out physical PS5 game releases and ditch the disc drive support for the PS6... what would happen?

• Would most of the PlayStation gamers who prefer physical games quit their hobby? Very doubtful!
• Would they switch to the PC platform with higher hardware costs and almost 100% digital? Only a few of them.
• Would they switch to the next Xbox, which probably has no disc drive support? Ha ha ha!
• Would they switch to Switch 2 where the "physical option" of most AAA releases are game key cards with almost all restrictions of digital games? Probably not due to the big gap of graphics fidelity.
• Would they switch to iOS/Android mobile games? No chance!

So most PlayStation gamers who prefer physical games (but nevertheless already bought digital-only games and/or digital add-on content) wouldn't change platforms or quit buying PlayStation games, especially if their friends don't switch platforms with them.