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Forums - Gaming - Do you predict any company to cover Microsoft's place on console market ?

BraLoD said:
Pajderman said:

I think Microsoft will try and fill their own cap so to speak.
If the next move from them is a flop, it might take some time and then they will appear with a rebrand of Microsoft's gaming division, leaving the Xbox name.
That is at least what I think will happen.

Well the new AI boss already said she is commited to keeping the multiplaform form MS has been going on, so I don't see Xbox pushing any real competition in the console space anymore.

I mean, to be fair, she also said: "the plan is the plan until is not the plan anymore". I find it a bit amusing that you all seem convinced that they will commit for all eternity to this strategy. As if they haven't been doing 180s left and right.



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chakkra said:
BraLoD said:

Well the new AI boss already said she is commited to keeping the multiplaform form MS has been going on, so I don't see Xbox pushing any real competition in the console space anymore.

I mean, to be fair, she also said: "the plan is the plan until is not the plan anymore". I find it a bit amusing that you all seem convinced that they will commit for all eternity to this strategy. As if they haven't been doing 180s left and right.

I don't know how long they will commit to it, but her first words about it when being put it charge is about their games being available outside of the Xbox.

So for now, I have nothing but her own words, Xbox boss, to based myself into.



Kyuu said:

@Cerebralbore101

The PS5 being behind the PS4 isn't a recent development, which is quite impressive all things considered. When PS5 got its first price hike years ago, I expected PS4 to extend its lead by a lot more than 2 million, and that the PS5 would eventually catch up due to a longer generation + longer crossgen period. PS5 is performing above my expectations (I originally expected around 140 million lifetime but my conditions were a PS4-like price trajectory and a stronger first party lineup. Little did we know that prices would keep rising instead of dropping. I also had no idea shortages would last for over 2 years!).

PS5 will definitely have a longer tail, and should be supported longer than the PS4 in both production and software. Sony implied longer PS5 support BEFORE the RAM crisis started. PS4 sales collapsed unnaturally because Sony initially wanted to convert PS4 players as quickly as possible to PS5. This is not how it's going to play out this time for obvious reasons. Sony would be moronic to launch a PS6 in 2027 and cease PS5 production (which is the only realistic way to give PS4 a chance of winning in hardware sales). A 2027 PS6 would be outrageously expensive, millions of lowend console gamers including the tens of millions stuck with PS4 would rather upgrade to a standard PS5 or a cheap PC. Every Playstation player stuck to PS4 is potentially a PS5 advantage (late PS4 didn't have "reserves" stuck with PS3 so to speak).The ecosystem itself is much bigger than it was during PS4's final days. PS5 can capitalize on this in ways that PS4 never could.

For your 105 million assumption to come true, the PS5 would have to ship only 8 million units this year, and another 4-5 million for the remainder of its life lol. It's plain silly in the context of GTA6 and future titles that will eventually leave the PS4 behind (Football, COD, etc).

So I think I made a mistake in my math. XB1 sold 240,000 units for January 2019. This was long after rumors of a next-gen Xbox had already circulated. There was nothing to stop people from expecting a new Xbox in November 2020. So this number would have been reduced unnaturally by the anticipation of Project Scarlett. Meanwhile, for January 2026 Xbox Series sold only 118,000 units, despite a next-gen Xbox not being expected for winter 2027. So you have this big demand for a console that isn't underpowered and abandoned (as in not being produced in high volumes) in 2026 and the only thing to answer that demand is the PS5. So if you were to delay Project Scarlet by two years and deny rumors of a 2020 launch I would expect January 2019 XB1 sales to go up to something like 300,000 units. And if you combine even half of those missing 182,000 in expected Xbox sales, with PS5's natural sales, then that would push PS5 past PS4 pretty easily. But I think it also means the console market is somehow actually growing. 

 TL/DR; I forgot to factor in the demand for XB1 if Project Scarlett didn't exist and then apply that to PS5 sales expectations for the current gen.  

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - 3 days ago

Cerebralbore101 said:
Pemalite said:

The number of hardware units shifted doesn't constitute a success or failure.

It's profit... If your platform is unprofitable, then it has failed at it's main purpose for existing... Which is making money.

Which is why a PC handheld that sells 10 million units is stupidly successful, but the WiiU or Vita at 15 million is a bomb.

The Playstation 5 has generated more profit than the PS1, PS2, PS3 and PS4 consoles... Combined. It is Sony's most successful console.

Likewise, Xbox series has generated more profit than Xbox One or Xbox 360, which is why Microsoft can justify next-gen hardware.

PC handhelds don't need to sell a ton because the storefront of Steam is already there. On the flipside a game console that fails means a failed storefront. Didn't the PS5 have a profit margin of 6%? And wasn't that why they pushed PC ports, because they wanted to wring a little more profit out of their videogame business? Also, profit isn't everything. Keep in mind that PS1 and PS2 never had online fees to charge people. PS3 online was free for a while. And games are released digitally, so they can't be resold. Bragging about profit while ripping customers off at every corner and then claiming that a device is "more successful" than a predecessor that charged fair prices isn't an argument I would want to make. 

As for Xbox, MS can say whatever they want about it and it wouldn't matter. Xbox profit is a rounding error compared to their PC business and Xbox doesn't have its own separate section on their financial reports. Xbox is bundled in with the Moore Personal Computing segment of their business, which includes a massive amount of non-gaming PC revenue, as well as services revenue. On top of that Xbox is a third party publisher now, so good luck separating the profits of Bethesda, Actiblizz, and Forza games not sold on an Xbox from Xbox proper. It's all a massive tangled mess. 

To figure out how much money Xbox proper makes or doesn't make, you would need to force Microsoft to be broken up into multiple companies. They would have to be Bethesda, Microsoft, Xbox, Activision, and Blizzard. Unless you did that, any claim of Xbox being this profitable or that profitable is pointless. 

Profit is literally everything to a for-profit company. They aren't a charity.

As for Microsoft and Profit, you can ascertain profit and margins from current reports by extrapolating pieces of data.




www.youtube.com/@Pemalite

Rockstar can pull this off with GTA6 exclusive to their console.
I am surprised they didnt try this yet.
They can sell 40M+ consoles just on GTA6 alone.



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ST.Tachyon said:

Rockstar can pull this off with GTA6 exclusive to their console.
I am surprised they didnt try this yet.
They can sell 40M+ consoles just on GTA6 alone.

I would like to see a Rockstar console. I bet it would have futuristic design like Alienware. :P



Cerebralbore101 said:
Kyuu said:

@Cerebralbore101

The PS5 being behind the PS4 isn't a recent development, which is quite impressive all things considered. When PS5 got its first price hike years ago, I expected PS4 to extend its lead by a lot more than 2 million, and that the PS5 would eventually catch up due to a longer generation + longer crossgen period. PS5 is performing above my expectations (I originally expected around 140 million lifetime but my conditions were a PS4-like price trajectory and a stronger first party lineup. Little did we know that prices would keep rising instead of dropping. I also had no idea shortages would last for over 2 years!).

PS5 will definitely have a longer tail, and should be supported longer than the PS4 in both production and software. Sony implied longer PS5 support BEFORE the RAM crisis started. PS4 sales collapsed unnaturally because Sony initially wanted to convert PS4 players as quickly as possible to PS5. This is not how it's going to play out this time for obvious reasons. Sony would be moronic to launch a PS6 in 2027 and cease PS5 production (which is the only realistic way to give PS4 a chance of winning in hardware sales). A 2027 PS6 would be outrageously expensive, millions of lowend console gamers including the tens of millions stuck with PS4 would rather upgrade to a standard PS5 or a cheap PC. Every Playstation player stuck to PS4 is potentially a PS5 advantage (late PS4 didn't have "reserves" stuck with PS3 so to speak).The ecosystem itself is much bigger than it was during PS4's final days. PS5 can capitalize on this in ways that PS4 never could.

For your 105 million assumption to come true, the PS5 would have to ship only 8 million units this year, and another 4-5 million for the remainder of its life lol. It's plain silly in the context of GTA6 and future titles that will eventually leave the PS4 behind (Football, COD, etc).

So I think I made a mistake in my math. XB1 sold 240,000 units for January 2019. This was long after rumors of a next-gen Xbox had already circulated. There was nothing to stop people from expecting a new Xbox in November 2020. So this number would have been reduced unnaturally by the anticipation of Project Scarlett. Meanwhile, for January 2026 Xbox Series sold only 118,000 units, despite a next-gen Xbox not being expected for winter 2027. So you have this big demand for a console that isn't underpowered and abandoned (as in not being produced in high volumes) in 2026 and the only thing to answer that demand is the PS5. So if you were to delay Project Scarlet by two years and deny rumors of a 2020 launch I would expect January 2019 XB1 sales to go up to something like 300,000 units. And if you combine even half of those missing 182,000 in expected Xbox sales, with PS5's natural sales, then that would push PS5 past PS4 pretty easily. But I think it also means the console market is somehow actually growing. 

 TL/DR; I forgot to factor in the demand for XB1 if Project Scarlett didn't exist and then apply that to PS5 sales expectations for the current gen.  

A whole lot has changed this generation vs previous generations. COVID, wars, AI and tariffs affecting prices and production, Nintendo unifying home consoles with handhelds. A very long crossgen period, lowend hardware popularity persisting, scalability, diminishing returns, rising development costs etc have disrupted everything. So the fact that PS5 could keep up with PS4 at all exceeded my high expectations. Sony managed to achieve that while retaining high PS4 player activity (which may be explained by Xbox players switching to PS5).

PC and Steam popularity skyrocketed and emerged as a legit console alternative/competitor for mainstream gamers. Nintendo consoles are better supported by 3rd parties than ever and now offer a fairly comparable experience to premium consoles in addition to what makes them unique.

But while PS5's success impresses me more than PS4's, the comparison is kinda meaningless. If PS5 sells more than PS4 due to staying much longer in the market, is it really "more popular" hardware wise? PS4's legs got cut abruptly, this is unlikely to happen to PS5. Ultimately it just doesn't matter to Sony which console we're playing on. They would be over the moon if PS5 retains a high active playerbase throughout PS6's generation, and wouldn't give a shit about how many units the PS6 sells annually as long as the combined active playerbase/spenders continue to rise or at least remain stable, which means people still value the brand/platform/ecosystem. The same way Valve wouldn't care whether you're on a GTX 1060 or an RTX 5090 or a SteamDeck.

I think "console wars" and "generations" as we once knew them are dead. It's all about platforms and ecosystems now. Comparisons to the past will confuse and mislead. Console gaming is stilll going strong and may be growing in some ways, and PC's growth as an alternative is a good thing overall, and more than makes up for Xbox's decline. The fact of the matter is that PS4 alone was more popular than PS360 combined if we are to look beyond just hardware sales, which as you explained earlier were inflated by the same users buying multiple consoles (I for one had an X360 and a PS3. Played more games on X360 and spent more time on PS3 due to free online and TLoU Factions).

Last edited by Kyuu - 3 days ago

Consoles are not dead because Microsoft had the fate of Sega and became a software publisher. :P
Switch sold 150 millions and PS5 sells like PS4. Maby in the future but not now.



Pemalite said:

Profit is literally everything to a for-profit company. They aren't a charity.

As for Microsoft and Profit, you can ascertain profit and margins from current reports by extrapolating pieces of data.

One of the biggest problems for modern corporations is that they push profits one quarter at the cost of long term sustainability. Anti-consumer business practices to drive short-term profit often result in company collapse years down the road. Saying that profit is everything to a for-profit company reeks of laissez-faire capitalism. Long-term sustainability, customer respect, and competitiveness are all just as important as profit. Hell, there's even a line on most PnL sheets for "Public Goodwill". You can't just jack up the price of water during a drought, reap millions, and then watch as your sales drop off a cliff and never recover after the first rain. That's a recipe for corporate failure. 

MS will only ever provide incomplete data. So anything you extrapolate will be erroneous. 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - 2 days ago

Cerebralbore101 said:
Pemalite said:

Profit is literally everything to a for-profit company. They aren't a charity.

As for Microsoft and Profit, you can ascertain profit and margins from current reports by extrapolating pieces of data.

One of the biggest problems for modern corporations is that they push profits one quarter at the cost of long term sustainability. Anti-consumer business practices to drive short-term profit often result in company collapse years down the road. Saying that profit is everything to a for-profit company reeks of laissez-faire capitalism. Long-term sustainability, customer respect, and competitiveness are all just as important as profit. Hell, there's even a line on most PnL sheets for "Public Goodwill". You can't just jack up the price of water during a drought, reap millions, and then watch as your sales drop off a cliff and never recover after the first rain. That's a recipe for corporate failure. 

MS will only ever provide incomplete data. So anything you extrapolate will be erroneous. 

If you think a company like Microsoft; that has been chasing a $5~ trillion dollar market cap cares about long term sustainability, customer respect and competitiveness... Then you haven't been paying attention to what Microsoft has been doing for the last 30 years... 
Or the fact that Microsoft has thrown sustainability out the window and started rolling out A.I/Data Centers everywhere, driving up the cost of electricity in those localities, consuming significant amounts of water, gobbling up all the DRAM and NAND which has forced all consumer-facing products (Phones, Consoles, Tablets, TV's, Cars and more) to increase in cost.

They are a for-profit company, they put profit above all else.

Why else do you think they aren't willing to be price-competitive with Sony and Nintendo?
Why else do you think they mandated a 30% profit margin?
Why else do you think they have pivoted towards selling profitable software and services and not loss-leading hardware?

It's because Profit matters above all else.

And why does profit matter above all else? Shareholders.

It's shareholders that push that drive for short term profit signalling, it's literally Microsoft's legal obligation to provide a return to shareholders and chase that next profit-ceiling.

If you think these companies actually give a shit about you, me or anyone else on this forum... Then I have some Kangaroo feathers to sell you... Because they don't.
They care about the cash in your wallet, that is literally the entire purpose of their existence.

Where a companies priorities change is when they are a privately held company like Valve, profit isn't the main goal as they don't have shareholders to constantly appease... But they still need to have profit as a primary goal to continue to exist as a viable entity.

Any other answer in this capitalistic world is simply wrong.




www.youtube.com/@Pemalite