Ambitious AAA games can be defined differently.

I am extremely happy with the scope of games as the TOTK, Odyssey and Xenoblades games. Nintendo does not need to chase the photo realist , 500go assets  games. The public does not as for thatas proven by the Switch success.

They need to continue their Switch strategy and not try to position themselves as a premium HW and high end realistic graphics SW.  Their main strength is the quality and uniqueness of their games which hold value for a long time and does not sell at discounted price after two months.

My understanding is that the bundles constituted the vast majority of SKU's. Was the base Switch 2 readily available everywhere? Am I overestimating the bundles numbers?

Most Switch 1 users didn't buy Mario Kart despite the mass bundling in the holiday season. My sister got her Switch 1 on Black Friday with a free MK8D and 3 months of online iirc, but I don' think she even touched the game. She used it for Ring Fit, indies, and occasionally Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze and RE4 (nostalgia). So I'm thinking not an insignificant number of people bought Switch 2's "despite" MKW and not "because" of it.

I think the difference is that it's early, and MKW is one of the few reasons right now to get a Switch 2. It's easily the driving force to get one now instead of waiting so people that don't care about MK are for the most part just not buying it, which is why the attach rate is so high compared to MK8 even though that was heavily bundled too.

There's not going to be many early adopters that won't pick up mkw, especially with a heavy discount. In the UK it's £34 more for the bundle RRP, but the game is £75 physical.

Also the bulk of the discounts for holidays have been for the bundle. Right now I can get both models delivered today from Argos, but standalone is £386 and the bundle £409.... So it's only £23 for MKW lol.

I've not noticed any stock issues for switch 2, neither standalone or MKW bundle.

What would be the point of that system? 

Again as we've seen in the past with Nintendo, users have to be compelled by your next product otherwise they won't buy it. If they cheaped out on specs they would have to have a strong gimmick elsewhere and I think an important part of Nintendo's future growth and also the success of the Switch is just focusing on sustainable practices not just throwing out gimmicks for the sake of a few years good hardware sales. The Switch's hardware will be healthy for its future 1st and 3rd party development, as well all the services aspects which they'll continue to rely on more going forward.

I don't think there is a pricing issue (yet)

There is a middling software issue compared to Switch 1. Switch 1 launched with a library of Wii U ports most of their fans never played because they never owned a Wii U, so the library of first party titles looked beefer on Switch 1 compared to Switch 2. Switch 1 launched with 3D Zelda, 3D Mario and their biggest live service game (Splatoon 2). Sorry but all those stomps Mario Kart, Mario Kart is a party-game at heart, you don't rush buying systems to play party games

I believe Nintendo Expected Metroid to have its own 3D Zelda moment, which didn't happen either


The biggest issue here is not really an issue, it's just a white people's problem: There was plenty of stock to buy since launch, meaning there was no pentup demand for this first holiday, so the sales become more evenly distributed instead of concentrated in the last part of the year

In a market where price increases are frequent people will rush out for consoles as soon as they can. PS5 and Series S/X would both have record-breaking launch releases if they were realized mid year with enough stock I believe

Switch 2 may be the first console with a new sales trajectory, one where consoles launch with huge numbers, then quickly collapse until software library becomes beef enough for casuals to buy them. I fully expect PS6 to repeat this lol

I agree with all of this except Mario Kart 8 was a huge system seller combined with the overall living room appeal of the switch.

But that took time to establish, and just like the other games you mentioned, MK8 was actually new to the general public and a huge experience leap over what people had last played almost a decade prior (MK Wii/DS).

Now everyone has MK8, Mario Kart World is just less compelling. The open world aspect is honestly a gimmick that doesn't really benefit the "fun". It visually looks the same to an untrained eye and MK8 is still an evergreen and fit for parties etc. It will sell gangbusters of course but more by default of "why not get the new mario kart", versus "we have to get this new system so we can play the new mario kart."

I think the problem for Nintendo is that the AAA audience is fully locked down on PS/PC, and people that own both a Nintendo console and a PC/PS buys their AAA games on PC/PS. So if they don't get any benefits of having AAA games on their systems like PS gets from it, then they will just have led to Switch 2 having better specs than it really needed to have and thus led to the console having a higher price point for no obvious gains. Its likely that Switch 2 will from a software selling standpoint remain just a Nintendo and indie machine. Even in the most Nintendo dominated market like Japan, the audience for AAA games like Resident Evil are on PS. We will thus continue to see only PS getting a boost from having such games, while third parties will complain that those games aren't selling on Switch 2, because people will buy Mario Tennis and Silksong instead of Resident Evil 9 on Switch 2. The audience for AAA is finite and already established on other platforms, you won't get that audience to buy those games on Switch 2 instead of the platforms they have bought those games for 20 years on in the future.

The first thing is just to point out that this is not entirely true.

We've seen in many markets how Nintendo has been able to make inroads with many IPs, most popular of which has been Fifa & Hogwarts. Sure, Playstation remains the biggest platform for these games but its very much in Nintendo's reach to continue growing audience and marketshare of 3rd party titles. Especially with new generations. This is an important area for growth that they have to continue to invest in. When games like RE9 launch day and date on Switch 2, I think you will see the real fruits of having competent modern hardware that scales well. Its also not just about AAA, its also about AA too. Better hardware means more ports and more 3rd party revenue. I suspect in fact that Nintendo was worried about too many 3rd party ports flooding the market at once which is why they've been weird about devkits.

With the second bolded point, we really shouldn't talk about the Switch's hardware like it exists only for 3rd parties. The Switch 2 is not some crazy powerful beast, it is to the PS4 and XBox One what the Switch was to the PS3/360. A system that came out 10 years later and with more modern Nvidia architecture and in a portable/hybrid form. The leap Nintendo has taken is simply the leap necessary for them to create a "new" generation of traditional games. Ninetndo will not be selling a new system on "Mario Tennis" and "silksong", they'll be selling it on the next Legend of Zelda, 3D Zelda, Pokemon, Smash etc.. just as they did the Switch 1. 

Just because we haven't yet seen games built around its hardware, it doesn't mean they're not coming. 

Without a doubt Nintendo is considered the family friendly brand. And the reality of the situation is that families are struggling to keep up with the cost of living. This is the crux of the situation. People aren't gonna suddenly show up to support this thing if they can't afford to do so. Sony only won because they were the most affordable. Look at Xbox. They raised the price to the point of the console dying. The old saying 'its the economy stupid' proves ever true. Nintendo is not entitled to anyone's money. Same to Sony and Microsoft. Just listen to consumers!

A glimpse at Fifa split in the UK this week

"PS5 47%, Switch 22%, Xbox 14%, PS4 10%, Switch 2 7%"

NIntendo are now responsible for almost 30% of Fifa's weekly physical sales. Just something I think is important in terms of assessing the value of their growing 3rd party presence and the role the Switch 2 will play in increasing this. Hardware sales are just one part of an actual ecosystem.