With the current AI bubble leading to a mass shortage in (and surge in pricing of) components*, it appears that the console gaming landscape is experiencing a bit of a shake up: PS5, Switch, and XBSXS continue going up; Microsoft seems to be prepping for a jump from console manufacturing to hosting an online storefront, competing with the likes of Steam and Epic, and not Nintendo nor Sony; Sony appears adamant to get as many PS5 units sold this holiday quarter (most demonstrably seen in their heavy discounts on hardware through JP and EU), potentially in preparation/mitigation of the impeding surge in manufacturing costs; etc.

That all said, my main question is this: What will happen to the console industry in these upcoming years? In particular, will PS6 be placed on an indefinite hold until the AI bubble simmers down? (Could this, in fact, be the reason for the recent shift in Sony’s rhetoric, no longer fixating on future hardware but instead proclaiming that PS5 is only midway through its lifecycle?) Should we begin preparing ourselves for $1,000 hardware? Or will hardware prices remain at a solid level, but software prices begin to surge as a means to compensate for higher hardware manufacturing costs?

Is all of this a bunch of doom-and-gloom fear-mongering that will all work out in the end? Tell me what you think.

*Somebody more informed than I may be able to describe the present climate in a little more detail. I am not a technical guy.

We will have to see how the current memory shortages begins to effect the console market. It's not really hit just yet but 2026 is looking like it might be rough.

Really Nintendo is in the worse position here as I expect they will want to manufacture a LOT of Switch 2 units next year. Being hit with something like this so early in a consoles life is far from ideal, but we'll just have to see what happens.

Rumors say that Sony prepared well for this, and bought a years worth or more of ram, when prices were low.
So most of 2026 should be "safe" from this ram allocation, price stuff.
The thing is what will happen in 2027 and forwards ?

Prices will go up. For everybody..... PS5 and NSW2, and Xbox's.

Now these big companies, can usually benefit from volume of production.
Like big orders, even on slimmer margins are nice and easy.... and thus something they can get more readily than consumers and the avg joe.
This is were xbox will get doubly screwed, since they don't manufacture as many units. While Sony and Nintendo, might get slightly better ram prices.
However, they likely won't get ram at better or same prices they have been getting them, earlier on.

I fear what effect this will have on the PS6 and new Xbox.
Which are already likely not to be "cheap" for console standards.

Xbox was rumored to be going super premium, high end, curated experiances..... that thing is gonna be expensive.


*edit:

Maybe sony and xbox, should put off launching a new console, if its going to be too expensive tbh.
Let Developers rain in their games a few years more. Just ride out this thing, until markets readjust or the AI bubble bursts.

The silver lining is, we'll be starting to get more games actually optimized and taking full advantage of the PS5 the longer the generation takes. And maybe some more effort into pro enhanced games as well.

Switch owners will also benefit if Switch 2 is going to suffer price increases. Nintendo will have to make cross generation games :/

XBox console sales were already dead, but don't know what effect it will have on gamepass. Maybe MS will pivot more to mobile as the last growing gaming market. Phones will get more expensive too yet people don't mind selling their soul for their phones :p

Owners of ageing hardware don't have to panic yet, game developers will keep catering to the majority, so 3060 and current CPUs will stay the target for now.


What will suffer is the advance to ray tracing taking over. Game development will have to stick to baked lighting for now. VR will stagnate further as well with rising prices. Steam Frame with 16GB ram and SSD storage is going to be expensive, Quest 3 might also go up in price while Meta keeps losing over 4 Billion per quarter on VR. It might actually give PSVR2 a bit of a boost. PSVR2 is now the same price as a Quest 3s during Cyber Monday week.

Standalone VR and ray tracing will be worst off.

Yes. Not for decades to come necessarily, but most likely the next 5 or so years.
Console price cuts are dead and going up in most regions because of tariffs. Said tariffs are also affecting controllers and other hard goods.
Unless the tariffs are mostly to completely reversed, I cannot fathom PS6 below $750. If the next Xbox is not really a console and more a glorified Gaming PC more than consoles are then we're looking at $1000 and up.
Nintendo is surely waiting for the holiday season to pass (and maybe the fiscal year to end) before they jack up Switch 2 in the US to at least $500, if not $600. I don't see more price increases for Switch models, so those will actually be a lot cheaper than Switch 2.
$80 AAA games are all but guaranteed to be on the horizon for 2026 and beyond. Do you think Rockstar is going to charge $70 for GTA VI? Almost no chance.
AI crap and microtransactions will continue to infect the industry.

The issue is being a bit overblown. While some spot prices have increased over 170% due to supply squeeze at the consumer end, contract prices are up less than 50% and are expected to stabilize across 2026 (according to TrendForce and other industry analysts, at least).

This makes OEM PCs and consoles ~ 10% more expensive to manufacture, and that's definitely not grounds for $1,000 hardware...

The industry as a whole in the worst state it's ever been and only getting worse as late stage capitalism grows and chases infinite growth & AI replacing people.