I was thinking about previous simultaneous cross generational releases on Nintendo systems, Twilight princess and Breath of the Wild. Both sold better on the newer system. But in both cases they came from Nintendo's least selling console ever to the best selling console ever. I still think it will sell better on Switch 2. The performance boost of the new system will attract the target audience of the series to the upgraded version.

Definitely switch 2. As a more niche Nintendo core title it's going to skew heavier towards the Nintendo fan that will be a switch 2 early adopter.

Pokémon Z-A FW was already 40% SW2 in Spain/Japan and 50% in UK and that's the type of title that'll sell very well with the more casual audience that won't move to switch 2 for a while.

Plus legs will obviously be better on SW2.

It's funny because I fully moved to digital last gen, but will still buy a second, physical copy of a game if I really want to collect the box (just for game that I really like, such as Nier Automata and Metroid games, and I am thinking of getting the DQ remakes too because of the cool thing they did dividing a single art in two parts), and I will always get the Switch versions of those, I don't even care about the GKC thing, I just want the cleaner box arts.

I think the better comparison here is PS4 vs PS5 crossgen games like GT7 and Horizon 2 (came out 15 months after PS5's launch), because PS4 and 5 are both popular platforms. These games' PS5 versions dominated PS4 versions despite the strong PS4 hold in software sales, and the gap grows as the generation goes.

I expect a comparable split for Metroid. I just can't think of non-annual crossgen game that sold better on a predecessor than on the popular successor. If it's a high quality game, Switch 2 version will come on top and it won't be close.

Switch 2 box/box art is just horrible lol

I know Nintendo's making sure there's no confusion, but there must've been a better way.

They could have made a double cover or reversible cover. Both would have cost a bit more but the benefits would have outweighed these costs probably. They could still do this and just have you send off for a new cover via snail mail for the cost of shipping. 

Pokémon Legends Z-A?

I'm referring to lifetime sales! ZA might get its potential legs cut within a year or two by a new big Pokemon game (like Arceus vs SV) which would be disadvantageous for the new console. Metroid Prime 4 won't be getting a sequel for a while.

I meant lifetime as well.

Prime 4 seems like the kind of game that will be front-loaded, with the franchise's small but dedicated following jumping in right away after waiting so long for it, so legs may not be a big factor.

Well the lifetime sales of ZA aren't decided, because the game just came out, and we don't know when the next big Pokemon game will come out.

I expect Switch 2 Metroid to sell better from day 1, most fans will want to play the superior version. And the game has potential for growth beyond the existing fanbase. Look how much bigger Zelda and Animal Crossing got. Being a standout and hopefully well marketed early Switch 2 game might give it decent legs compared to older games in the series.