For comparison, in Q2 of 2017 the Switch 1 moved 2.92 million units, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was at 4.42 million.

There is certainly still demand for Switch 1, especially in the more price sensitive regions like @bonzobanana - Europe and the Rest of the World in particular. 

Which is why the more I think about it, the more it doesn't make any sense for them to revise their forecast down despite having a new Pokemon and new Metroid Prime game slated for the holiday season on the system UNLESS they are purposefully and specifically cutting into Switch 1 production to make more room for Switch 2 production. Because at it stands, the Switch 1 is at 1.89 million units for the fiscal year, which means it only needs to sell an additional 2.11 million units to meet their revised forecast. Hell, it only needed 2.61 million to reach their old forecast. Something that it could have done no problem in just the holiday season alone if they have the right stock... But their resources and hardware production orders/lines are limited. And they'd rather spend those resources to make 3-4 million more Switch 2s over 1-2 million more Switch 1s.

The way Furukawa worded that statement + the earlier statement of Switch 2 being the focus of software production now (No shit, PAO!) What he's REALLY saying is "Yeah, we'll keep producing and supporting Switch 1, but don't expect much of anything at this point because Switch 2 is all we care about now and our focus is on that."

Because let's be honest here. Trying to squeeze another 6-7 million, or however many more units, out of Switch 1 just to break an (albert VERY impressive) record, is a short term boost meant strictly for bragging rights that they evidently aren't all that concerned about. And they're certainly not going to do it if it comes at ANY expense or cost to their long-term plans and future (Switch 2). They'd much rather sell 25-30 million Switch 2 units a year and and only 3-5 million more Switch 1 units and have Switch 1 fall short; Rather than only sell 15-20 million Switch 2 units a year and the Switch 1 sells another 10 million and breaks the record.

TL:DR - The only thing stopping Switch 1 from catching the PS2 at this point is Nintendo's own willingness, or lack thereof, to continue supporting and selling Switch 1.

The reason i mentioned France is that estimates from Installbase forum is that Switch 2 will outsell Xbox Series lifetime sales in France in around 6 months. Xbox series is around 800k lifetime sales in France while Switch 2 seems to be trending towards 900K-1M sales in France this year. And even though Xbox is not the most popular in Europe it should be logically impossible for Switch 2 to outsell Xbox lifetime sales already in some European markets. The fact that PS5 is even stronger in Europe doesn't really detract from Switch 2 being a hit in Europe.

I don't know if Xbox is important in France and that is quite a specific comparison. It was in the news about how French retailers were dropping the price of Switch 2 and this surely indicates over-supply of Switch 2 consoles so that retailers are worried about their build up of stock. Now I'll admit this doesn't necessarily mean its selling badly but it does mean it is selling under expectations surely. I don't think there is any mystery here, the market with the worst pricing is the market with reduced sales compared to other markets. Certainly the pricing of Switch 2 in the UK has put me off buying one and I don't feel it represents good value. I'll admit I did chew it over when Amazon had some returned models at £307 for a short time and had to resist as I really couldn't justify it, so its not like you can't get cheaper Switch 2s in the UK as it does seem to have a very high return rate perhaps because people were expecting more for the price point. I did see one review comment where the person didn't realise the Switch 2 had such short battery runtime. However I tend not to buy too early anyway and wait for more exclusive games to come out and hopefully hardware improvements. A conversion today of 50,000 yen is less than £250 uk pounds and ultimately all the Switch 2 consoles are coming out of China and Vietnam. Don't get me wrong though I'm not expecting parity with Japan as there is 10% more sales tax in the UK compared to Japan but a price of about £300 would be fair, maybe at a a stretch £320 but £370-380 I find unacceptable. There are so many discounted Switch 2 deals in the UK and we are heading for Black Friday so may improve too (or may not of course). It really does feel like Europe is paying the extra tariffs on the US for them. Nintendo seems to be sacrificing Europe to make sure it has a healthy start in the US its biggest market. I'm expecting Europe to underperform compared to the other 2 markets but totally accept we won't get the full picture until early 2026.   

You should add paragraphing to long passages like this, as these big solid walls of text can be a bit of a slog to read.

For example:

"I don't know if Xbox is important in France and that is quite a specific comparison. It was in the news about how French retailers were dropping the price of Switch 2 and this surely indicates over-supply of Switch 2 consoles so that retailers are worried about their build up of stock.

Now I'll admit this doesn't necessarily mean its selling badly but it does mean it is selling under expectations surely. I don't think there is any mystery here, the market with the worst pricing is the market with reduced sales compared to other markets. Certainly the pricing of Switch 2 in the UK has put me off buying one and I don't feel it represents good value.

I'll admit I did chew it over when Amazon had some returned models at £307 for a short time and had to resist as I really couldn't justify it, so its not like you can't get cheaper Switch 2s in the UK as it does seem to have a very high return rate perhaps because people were expecting more for the price point. I did see one review comment where the person didn't realise the Switch 2 had such short battery runtime.

However I tend not to buy too early anyway and wait for more exclusive games to come out and hopefully hardware improvements. A conversion today of 50,000 yen is less than £250 uk pounds and ultimately all the Switch 2 consoles are coming out of China and Vietnam. Don't get me wrong though I'm not expecting parity with Japan as there is 10% more sales tax in the UK compared to Japan but a price of about £300 would be fair, maybe at a a stretch £320 but £370-380 I find unacceptable. There are so many discounted Switch 2 deals in the UK and we are heading for Black Friday so may improve too (or may not of course).

It really does feel like Europe is paying the extra tariffs on the US for them. Nintendo seems to be sacrificing Europe to make sure it has a healthy start in the US its biggest market. I'm expecting Europe to underperform compared to the other 2 markets but totally accept we won't get the full picture until early 2026."

I guess the issue is they need the Switch 2 to have a strong foundation for its launch year and maybe don't want too much competition from the original Switch so maybe they will drop production of Switch 1 to prioritise Switch 2 in the factories they use. It may simply be Nintendo has decided not to produce as many Switch 1 units so sales have to drop because of a undersupply of consoles. Nintendo increased the price of Switch 1s in North America so this could be a tactic to make the Switch 2 more competitive and work with a reduction in Switch 1 consoles being produced. I still think the Switch Lite and Switch OLED are better portable consoles than Switch 2 because of their size and battery runtime and its clear from what I've read many Japanese think exactly the same. It feels like the next revision of Switch 2 could well have a smaller screen but we shall see. Switch Lite makes up a higher number of Switch sales in Japan compared to any other market I believe.

It's something I have to keep telling myself. I type at a very fast speed and sort of blurt out my postings and move on.

I'm still optimistic about the Nintendo Switch surpassing the PS2. Two points stood out in Nintendo’s presentation materials for their six-month financial results:

1. Nintendo stated that they are strengthening their sales organization in the Asia region. In September, they established a subsidiary in Singapore and plan to establish another one in Thailand. In conjunction with this, they also plan to enhance their presence in Malaysia and the Philippines.
   
   Of course, Nintendo would ideally like to sell the Switch 2 in these regions. However, the reality is that Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and several other Asian countries are, on average, not wealthy enough for the Switch 2 to be widely affordable. I believe the original Switch has a much better chance of gaining traction in these markets. There is still real untapped potential in Asia.
   
   See on page 55: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2025/251105e.pdf
   
   
   
2. Nintendo stated that they will continue supplying the original Switch if demand remains. Why would Nintendo make a statement like that? Who cares about the Switch 1 at this stage? There was no particular need to mention continued support for it. The only reason to do so is to signal that they are not finished with the Switch 1 yet, and to reassure recent buyers that the system still has life left. I think this connects directly to point 1.
   
   See on page 17: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2025/251105e.pdf
   
   

Additionally, In the Q&A, Shuntaro Furukawa, the President of Nintendo, even assured that new titles will continue to be released for the Switch 1.

See A1 on page 1: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2025/251105_2e.pdf

Switch 1 sales are still very healthy in Japan at about the same level as PS5 and just over half the sales of the Switch 2. Yes the Switch 1 has seen decline in other markets to a greater extent but Japan itself still loves it and is buying it in decent quantities. I actually think there is a chance of a new Switch 1 sku at some point, with greater cost savings etc. It's still a hugely profitable platform for Nintendo. I expect it still to be actively sold for the next 3 years even if it becomes a insignificant presence in the US and Europe retail channels. We are still in the Switch 2 launch window so as things settle we could see that figure of about 54% of sales compared to Switch 2 in Japan climb further maybe 60% or more. However the fantastic pricing of Switch 2 in Japan perhaps might prevent that but we shall see. Ultimately the Switch 1 is a better portable system, easier to carry with longer battery runtime and that might continue until we see a Switch 2 hardware revision. I'm not convinced the Switch 1 is close to not being actively sold. I feel it has years left even if it becomes a more budget focused console. For how long into the wii u generation was the wii actively sold? I seem to remember the wii mini was sold up until the launch of the Switch thereabouts, a cost reduced version of the wii. I realise the poor sales of the wii u might have some bearing on that though.

But i mean Nintendo sales being weaker in Europe than in other markets is entirely normal. There is a reason why PS4 comfortably outsold Switch 1 in Europe even though Switch 1 easily outsold PS4 pretty much everywhere else. So PS5 could outsell Switch 2 in Europe easily and Switch 2 could still end up selling more than PS5 in global sales. There are always markets where a competitor has an advantage over you. And for Nintendo that is clearly PS popularity in Europe. Price is not the important factor, but brand popularity, and the fact that PS is the better place to play all the most popular gaming titles in Europe, like the yearly EA Sports FC releases, where Switch 2 runs those game 30 fps and doesn't have crossplay with the other versions. Which means if you are a normal, casual European console player that plays the kinds of games that usually dominates the European market, the Switch 2 doesn't offer at all what the PS5 offers. And Nintendo can't compensate that reality with their first party output like they can in the US and Japan to that extent in Europe.