I don't think Silksong is guaranteed.

My guess (ignoring Metroid Prime 4 which may not be eligible):

1. Clair Obscur (winner)

2. Hades 2

3. Donkey Kong Bananza

4. Dearh Stranding 2

5. Split Fiction

6. Silksong

Right behind: Silent Hill f, Ghost of Yotei.

Split Fiction should take Silksong's spot in the safe bet slots I'd say since while reception is overall strong it's somewhat divisive. It being such a strong follow up to a previous GOTY winner makes it a sure bet for being a nominee I think. It's such an incredible game that it'd be insane if it doesn't get nominated really. Its climax was one of the coolest and most fun experiences I've had with a video game ever and it deserves a slot based on that part alone.

DK Bananza.

Lol as much as I’d also love to see Nintendo get another win, this thread is currently about what the six nominees will be. DKBananza is a safe option (and potentially a front-runner… though E33 likely will win).

When is the cutoff? I doubt the review will be too high, but all of the previous Metroid Prime games scored 90+

It will only be four.

Please.
Wrap.
It.
Up.

100% chances to be nominated

#1 Expedition 33 is the obvious winner of the competition. Industry and players alike loved it, and it is considered groundbreaking among the JRPG/JRPG-esque genre a genre that never won this award, so it's about damn time

95% chances to be nominated

#2 Donkey Kong Bananza is Nintendo's representative in the Switch 2 launch year. The industry will choose a game from Nintendo to nominate even if it was a mid-tier release. DK Bananza is not mid-tier at all, so the nomination is almost safe. The only thing that could possibly prevent a nomination is lack of lobby, but it’s a year full of indies, and I doubt lobby will be an issue

80% chances to be nominated

#3 Ghost of Yotei and #4 Death Stranding 2 are the annual "single-player narrative-driven" award baits

Plus, they are from Sony, which means insta-nomination almost every year

They might cannibalize each other for a position, which is why I'm not giving them 100%, but I think both will get there

70% chances to be nominated

#5 Hades II is not only an industry darling but the best-reviewed game this year, even above E33, which is nuts. Loved by players and released as what we could describe as a "perfect sequel" It has been building a year-long fanfare, a 100% confirmed nomination, and this is easily the indie release of the year...

...oops, there is a contender for indie of the year: #6 Hollow Knight: Silksong. Almost universally loved by critics and players too. It has released with sales and player count to put AAA releases to shame, with a budget that is likely not enough to buy someone a house. Talk about ROI!

Both games will face strong competition against major studios. I think both will get there, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them is absent

50% chances to be nominated

#7 Split Fiction, another critically acclaimed game and loved by players 4 million units is not too shabby. Unlike Hades and Silksong, there is no dedicated fandom for this game, and the fact it was released early might work against it. But EA will use all their money and connections to get it as far as they can. When was the last time an EA game was that well-liked?

30% chances to be nominated

I think #8 Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 will be absent. It was released early in a very competitive year and failed to make a lasting impact throughout the year. The player base clearly loved it, and it must be the most well-liked RPG this year online for Western RPG fans (E33 is liked mostly by non-RPG fans from what I've seen), but fanfare alone will not get it too far. Nomination chances are low

#9 Mario Kart World is another game with some chances. It has the Switch 2 factor to push it much further than it should, but this is a stacked year, and honestly, even if it’s the most popular party game, it’s still a party game at heart. This type of game doesn’t get awards, period. I can still see a nomination, but odds are against it. If this were Smash, 3D Mario, or even Metroid, I could see an argument, but not for Mario Kart

10% chances to be nominated

The industry tried the best they could to shoehorn it, but the fact is #10 Monster Hunter Wilds reception among fans was mediocre. I don't think it will be nominated. The only reason why it doesn't have 0% chances is because Capcom will lobby the hell out of journalists to vote for it. I won't be shocked if it somehow steals a nomination from Silksong, Split Fiction, or Hades.

#11 Silent Hill f is successful and well-received, but just not on the same level as the ones listed above. It could have a shot in another year, but not in a stacked year. I can see nominations for Silent Hill in other categories though

0% chances to be nominated

Doom: The Dark Ages had a non-eventful release (didn't even remember it existed, tbh)

Blue Prince could be a dark horse, but not in a year with so many more popular indies

Keighley loves Kojima, almost to the point of idol worship. 

I would say Expedition 33, Donkey Kong and Death Stranding 2 are the three that are nigh on certain to get nominated.

While Silksong has gotten impressive reviews, there’s also been some criticisms about the difficulty and other things. So I think Hades 2 is the safer nomination, although I think both will be there.

For the last spot I’m going with either Ghost of Yotei or Split Fiction. Don’t really know.

I wish Kingdom Come 2 would get a spot but I think more likely it won’t. Blue Prince will likely miss out too which is a shame.

The winner will get 5 seconds to take their award and get off the stage so Kojima can spend 15 minutes talking about what he had for breakfast that morning.