Nintendo takes nostalgic and new young gamers for which these games are brand new.

Platformers like Mario have a large casual appeal plus these have the aura of being some of the best games ever made. They'll sell and keep selling a lot until the next 3D Mario is going to be released. This could take a while.

I think it will easily sell 12 million plus in its first year.

Yotei is a sequel that looks like a true sequel. That usually does not sell as well as the first one. Simply because being less surprising and refreshing. I think 5 million plus in its first year.

Im going with Mario, Mario always has fantastic legs

Looks like in the UK Ghost of Yotei is off to a much better start.

As big as Mario is, i don't see why a port of 20 year old games should sell comparable to a new AAA game, and Nintendo priced Mario Galaxy 1 + 2 as an AAA release, which didn't exactly do wonders for it sales potential.

And this is just physical so including digital which shifts heavily in Yotei's favour, difference is probably 5:1 minimum.

Quite a few people expected Mario to even open better, although Its just the UK market I think that should settle expectations there.

UK is arguably one of the weakest Nintendo markets, but I think we can extrapolate it to mainland Europe. Sorta 

With that in mind, Ghost is certainly benefiting from bigger opening elsewhere but Japan, and even there the difference will not be massive 3D all stars was a better deal, with better marketing and a limited release to rush sales and made 210k physical, less than Ghost of Tsushima actually 

Galaxy should enjoy stronger holiday season. It's a more family friend game, which translates to higher gift potential 

Famitsu numbers are out: https://www.famitsu.com/article/202510/54802

Yotei did 120k, which is roughly 43% less than Tsushima (though we can argue digital ratio is higher, Tsushima probably did 300k digital included, Yotei we are likely talking about 200k+ digital included)

Galaxy 1+2 did 48k physical on Switch. No numbers for Switch 2 (is there a Switch 2 version?). Me thinks even Switch 2 owners are likely choosing base Switch version because its cheaper. I also think digital was a bit higher here, because many people who already has 3D All Stars will think this physical release is pointless


Bonus: 77k for Final Fantasy Tactics (no numbers for PS4 version yet). When aounting digital and PC I'm sure it sold over 120k already

Super Mario 3D Allstars did 210k FW, so 48k for Galaxy 1+2 is a lot less. Glad I said I didn't have a clue how it would sell because I wouldn't have bet this.

I was expecting sub 100k, because the physical release is pointless except to collectors. The odds are people who are fans of 3D Mario already got Galaxy 1, and now just need to purchase Galaxy 2 digital