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Forums - Sales - Prediction: Next Gen Xbox will sell <10mil units

 

Next Gen Xbox LTD will be…

<1mil 3 6.52%
 
1-5mil 4 8.70%
 
6-10mil 6 13.04%
 
11-15mil 7 15.22%
 
16-19mil 6 13.04%
 
20-29mil 11 23.91%
 
30-49mil 7 15.22%
 
50-74mil 1 2.17%
 
75-100mil 1 2.17%
 
>100mil 0 0%
 
Total:46
curl-6 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

The only way for something branded as Xbox, even if it's a disguised PC, to sell less than 10 million is if Microsoft repeat the same selling/distribution strategy of Valve

Do you expect the Xbox Ally to sell over 10 million?

Nope, Xbox don't have any branding regarding handhelds, and for what I remember, Ally has no BC compatibility with previous Xbox and is not a continuation of Xbox ecosystem 

I think it will be sold like Steam Deck with limited availability and lacking the other things I mentuoned, it should sell bellow Steam Deck numbers (~4 million lifetime) or maybe slightly above Steam Deck (~6 million)

If it's a retail product with proper distribution and marketing, it can sell closer to Vita numbers (9~10 million) but it will need extended shelve life I don't believe a product like that will have 



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IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

Do you expect the Xbox Ally to sell over 10 million?

Nope, Xbox don't have any branding regarding handhelds, and for what I remember, Ally has no BC compatibility with previous Xbox and is not a continuation of Xbox ecosystem 

I think it will be sold like Steam Deck with limited availability and lacking the other things I mentuoned, it should sell bellow Steam Deck numbers (~4 million lifetime) or maybe slightly above Steam Deck (~6 million)

If it's a retail product with proper distribution and marketing, it can sell closer to Vita numbers (9~10 million) but it will need extended shelve life I don't believe a product like that will have 

It's still technically an Xbox product, and it has received marketing in an Xbox Games Showcase.

I tend to agree with your sales projections though.



I just dont see it selling 10m,
I mean what is the point of having Xbox right now.
You have two privileges with Xbox console, to use it as paperweight and to pay to play online, and that is about it.
If Xbox do what i think they are going to do, build premium console and just charge around 900-1000e for people who rly want Xbox, they will be happy to get past 1m mark



IcaroRibeiro said:
Kyuu said:

A device like this isn't passing 10 million, maybe unless power per buck and ease of use are comparable to consoles. PC gamers don't give a shit about some SteamMachine with a spin. Even the SteamDeck which has a giant selling point (portability) will struggle to hit 10 million.

MS gotta find ways to convince its remaining Xbox userbase to basically convert to PC without abandoning their plastic boxes. This is the only way they can retain 20 million+ sales. The PC community will hardly notice this thing.

Steam Deck is not a retail product, lack mindshare, lack marketing, lack advertising, lack branding, lack global distribution and lack a dedicated audience of fans who consume the brand for decade at this point 

The only way for something branded as Xbox, even if it's a disguised PC, to sell less than 10 million is if Microsoft repeat the same selling/distribution strategy of Valve

Edit: Or if the bad initial sales lead to quickly discontinuation 

You would think the Steamdeck sold a 100 million with how many people talk it up on reddit.  It must just be the same 8 people with thousands of alter profiles. 



Yeah but, that's sort of a narrow scope, isn't it? I mean, after all, your car is an Xbox now. Probably soon to be your shoes and clothes, as wel. Hell, with their genius engineers, even your thoughts will likely end up being an Xbox. Xbox everywhere! Everything's an Xbox!



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rapsuperstar31 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Steam Deck is not a retail product, lack mindshare, lack marketing, lack advertising, lack branding, lack global distribution and lack a dedicated audience of fans who consume the brand for decade at this point 

The only way for something branded as Xbox, even if it's a disguised PC, to sell less than 10 million is if Microsoft repeat the same selling/distribution strategy of Valve

Edit: Or if the bad initial sales lead to quickly discontinuation 

You would think the Steamdeck sold a 100 million with how many people talk it up on reddit.  It must just be the same 8 people with thousands of alter profiles. 

Yeah the Steam Deck has only sold like 4 million units but its small base act like evangelists constantly raving about it and telling everyone else to "just get a Steam Deck bro".



Felt I should bump this thread. With XBSXS only left with max 4mil in its tank, and the system already charging $600 for the disc drive, it’s appearing as though there is no future for Xbox hardware.



Yeah at this rate if there is a next Xbox I'm expecting it to be like $800-$1000, catering to only the most hardcore Xbox crowd who don't want to give up on their accumulated digital library and achievements, and sell a few million before fading out; a tragic end to a once proud console line.



It will sell very poorly but Microsoft will claim victory by simply stating that all devices using the Xbox Experience app are Cboxes and so they will flood us with stats that mean absolutely nothing and no one will ever know how many Xbox consoles are sold as they are not allowed to know now. Through some convoluted double speak, we may never even get reporting from Circana.

The information void will allow Microsoft's PR to step in and curate an approved message for the masses that will be repeated by grifters ad nauseam.



Bump. Below are the original polling results (as of me making this post):

With it all-but-confirmed that Next Gen Xbox will be some sort of high-cost PC device (according to many recent comments on (i) shifting focus toward Amazon and Google, less toward Sony and Nintendo, (ii) promising to bring Halo to PlayStation moving forward, (iii) comments from higher-ups seeming to corroborate claims of next gen being a luxury gaming hardware, etc.), I think it’s fair for me to double-down on my less-than-10mil projection.

Any new thoughts you guys have? What do you think?