No it’s not, a higher start is naturally going to lead to a higher percentage decline on its way to reaching its baseline. Also, you should go back and look at Switch in 2017 because the 50-70k baseline that you mention absolutely does not hold.

W10-48k W11-25k W12-26k W13-27k W14-24k W15-27k W16-38k (ARMS) W17-26k W18-29k W19-26k W20-32k W21-99k (Splatoon 2)

It basically goes through a 3 month streak of ~30k per week until Splatoon hits.

Maybe I could use a different word than “concerning”…that might be what’s bugging you. It’s not that I’m saying that I expect the system to “hit a cliff,” but rather that market demand atm is pointing toward a *slightly* ambiguous future. Will it perform just as well — if not, significantly better — than NSW? Or will it settle a bit closer to 3DS? (In ref to it’s first few years, as it is impossible to project LTD.) My expectation has been near-or-above NSW figures these first few years, but my expectation wasn’t to see NSW FY’24 weekly average outperforming NS2 so soon. Also, yeah, I am fully aware that NSW had most of its worst weeks prior to the discontinuation of 3DS. And just as NS2 figures are giving mixed signals, so too did NSW figures during Summer 2017. Though things worked out; hence, nothing more than a slight concern. I perceive that everything should be okay, and these figures won’t drop below 50-60k/wk throughout August and September. If NS2 can hold that, then that’s very solid and would fall only slightly below my expectations for the system (I anticipated 60-80k/wk JP through 2025; 3.5-4.25mil Q2FY26 & 8-10mil Q3FY26 WW).

If the word “(slight) concern” is making you upset, just change it to “interpretation that these figures suggest (slight) ambiguity in NS2’s future.” Again, not saying it’s over for NS2; just saying that future success isn’t a guarantee at this very exact moment in time.

But its all about stock. We know for example the week DK Bananza released in Japan, stock was higher which meant 150K units were sold that week. Stock is now lower which meant a low selling 60K week.

Japan is far from the point where supply would have met demand, Nintendo hasn't even met the initial demand from Japan, given that over 2 million Japanese signed up to my Nintendo store preorders, and Switch 2 haven't even been supplied to all of those initial customers as of yet.

You act as if there is just thousands of unsold Switch 2 units laying around in Japan on a weekly basis, when the reality is they still follow a lottery system and all supply to the country gets instantly sold out every week.

By your reasoning, PS5 sold incredibly little from 2020-2022 in Japan because of no demand, when the reality was that it took until 2022 for Sony to be able to ship significant amount of PS5 units to Japan. Nintendo on the other hand is faster in supplying the Japanese market, but they have no capacity to meet the huge demand for Switch 2 in Japan, which is why Nintendo president Furukawa has to apologize for not being able to meet demand every time he speaks out.

The steady WoW decline is what makes me skeptical of the claim that this is merely a “stock issue.” Not saying shortage implausible — I mean, as you have acknowledged, Furukawa has explicitly come out and claimed there are some supply issues — though that is to say I feel these JP figures closer resemble a gradual decay in consumer demand. Also, *sometimes* software figures serve as an indicator in differentiating shortage versus lack of consumer interest (e.g. Zelda BotW outselling NSW during Q4F17). 25k for Bananza is sending mixed signals in this regard.

But there isn't a ''steady'' decline every week. Donkey Kong Bananza restock a few weeks ago shows that when the supply gets increased, you get a major boost in hardware sales. Which is what you would expect to see when the demand hasn't been met in a particular market.

We know that Nintendo is ''only'' shipping around 1/5 of their Switch 2 units to Japan from their recent financial report, which means Japan does not get massive stock on a weekly basis.

How would Nintendo be able to ship 150K units to Japan every week if they also need to ship even more consoles than that both to the US and Europe on a weekly basis? Their Switch 2 production capabilities are not on that level.

Look at DroidKnight’s visual to see this gradual decline. There was a peak at launch and another peak at DKBananza; all else has been WoW drops. Gradual decline doesn’t mean every week is lower than the last, but rather there is a general downward trajectory. The DKBananza figures are not evidence of supply shortage in hardware; all that shows is DKBananza was a hotly anticipated game that drove demand for a couple of weeks. In fact, that Nintendo was able to match DKBananza with such large JP hardware supply could serve as evidence toward there not being a supply shock but a demand shock.

Also, all, what I’m saying is not at all controversial. I think the word “concern” is what too many are getting hung up on. It should not be crazy to say that the recent downward trajectory might indicate ambiguity in NS2’s legs. Are you really telling me that NS2 will be an unambiguous smash hit? Going above 3DS and NSW’s first few years? I believe it is likely, but the present data is painting an inconclusive story.

My point is that it is of course far too early to speculate about Switch 2 longterm legs, given that Nintendo as of yet haven't even met the initial 2 million MNS preorders in Japan, they haven't even met launch demand in the country, so its not really possible to predict how legs will be in a few years time.