zorg1000 said:
No it’s not, a higher start is naturally going to lead to a higher percentage decline on its way to reaching its baseline. Also, you should go back and look at Switch in 2017 because the 50-70k baseline that you mention absolutely does not hold. W10-48k W11-25k W12-26k W13-27k W14-24k W15-27k W16-38k (ARMS) W17-26k W18-29k W19-26k W20-32k W21-99k (Splatoon 2) It basically goes through a 3 month streak of ~30k per week until Splatoon hits. |
Maybe I could use a different word than “concerning”…that might be what’s bugging you. It’s not that I’m saying that I expect the system to “hit a cliff,” but rather that market demand atm is pointing toward a *slightly* ambiguous future. Will it perform just as well — if not, significantly better — than NSW? Or will it settle a bit closer to 3DS? (In ref to it’s first few years, as it is impossible to project LTD.) My expectation has been near-or-above NSW figures these first few years, but my expectation wasn’t to see NSW FY’24 weekly average outperforming NS2 so soon. Also, yeah, I am fully aware that NSW had most of its worst weeks prior to the discontinuation of 3DS. And just as NS2 figures are giving mixed signals, so too did NSW figures during Summer 2017. Though things worked out; hence, nothing more than a slight concern. I perceive that everything should be okay, and these figures won’t drop below 50-60k/wk throughout August and September. If NS2 can hold that, then that’s very solid and would fall only slightly below my expectations for the system (I anticipated 60-80k/wk JP through 2025; 3.5-4.25mil Q2FY26 & 8-10mil Q3FY26 WW).
If the word “(slight) concern” is making you upset, just change it to “interpretation that these figures suggest (slight) ambiguity in NS2’s future.” Again, not saying it’s over for NS2; just saying that future success isn’t a guarantee at this very exact moment in time.
Last edited by firebush03 - on 08 August 2025
