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firebush03 on 08 August 2025
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Sephiran said:
firebush03 said:

Maybe I could use a different word than “concerning”…that might be what’s bugging you. It’s not that I’m saying that I expect the system to “hit a cliff,” but rather that market demand atm is pointing toward a *slightly* ambiguous future. Will it perform just as well — if not, significantly better — than NSW? Or will it settle a bit closer to 3DS? (In ref to it’s first few years, as it is impossible to project LTD.) My expectation has been near-or-above NSW figures these first few years, but my expectation wasn’t to see NSW FY’24 weekly average outperforming NS2 so soon. Also, yeah, I am fully aware that NSW had most of its worst weeks prior to the discontinuation of 3DS. And just as NS2 figures are giving mixed signals, so too did NSW figures during Summer 2017. Though things worked out; hence, nothing more than a slight concern. I perceive that everything should be okay, and these figures won’t drop below 50-60k/wk throughout August and September. If NS2 can hold that, then that’s very solid and would fall only slightly below my expectations for the system (I anticipated 60-80k/wk JP through 2025; 3.5-4.25mil Q2FY26 & 8-10mil Q3FY26 WW).

If the word “(slight) concern” is making you upset, just change it to “interpretation that these figures suggest (slight) ambiguity in NS2’s future.” Again, not saying it’s over for NS2; just saying that future success isn’t a guarantee at this very exact moment in time.

But its all about stock. We know for example the week DK Bananza released in Japan, stock was higher which meant 150K units were sold that week. Stock is now lower which meant a low selling 60K week.

Japan is far from the point where supply would have met demand, Nintendo hasn't even met the initial demand from Japan, given that over 2 million Japanese signed up to my Nintendo store preorders, and Switch 2 haven't even been supplied to all of those initial customers as of yet.

You act as if there is just thousands of unsold Switch 2 units laying around in Japan on a weekly basis, when the reality is they still follow a lottery system and all supply to the country gets instantly sold out every week.

By your reasoning, PS5 sold incredibly little from 2020-2022 in Japan because of no demand, when the reality was that it took until 2022 for Sony to be able to ship significant amount of PS5 units to Japan. Nintendo on the other hand is faster in supplying the Japanese market, but they have no capacity to meet the huge demand for Switch 2 in Japan, which is why Nintendo president Furukawa has to apologize for not being able to meet demand every time he speaks out.

The steady WoW decline is what makes me skeptical of the claim that this is merely a “stock issue.” Not saying shortage implausible — I mean, as you have acknowledged, Furukawa has explicitly come out and claimed there are some supply issues — though that is to say I feel these JP figures closer resemble a gradual decay in consumer demand. Also, *sometimes* software figures serve as an indicator in differentiating shortage versus lack of consumer interest (e.g. Zelda BotW outselling NSW during Q4F17). 25k for Bananza is sending mixed signals in this regard.