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firebush03 on 08 August 2025
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Sephiran said:
firebush03 said:

The steady WoW decline is what makes me skeptical of the claim that this is merely a “stock issue.” Not saying shortage implausible — I mean, as you have acknowledged, Furukawa has explicitly come out and claimed there are some supply issues — though that is to say I feel these JP figures closer resemble a gradual decay in consumer demand. Also, *sometimes* software figures serve as an indicator in differentiating shortage versus lack of consumer interest (e.g. Zelda BotW outselling NSW during Q4F17). 25k for Bananza is sending mixed signals in this regard.

But there isn't a ''steady'' decline every week. Donkey Kong Bananza restock a few weeks ago shows that when the supply gets increased, you get a major boost in hardware sales. Which is what you would expect to see when the demand hasn't been met in a particular market.

We know that Nintendo is ''only'' shipping around 1/5 of their Switch 2 units to Japan from their recent financial report, which means Japan does not get massive stock on a weekly basis.

How would Nintendo be able to ship 150K units to Japan every week if they also need to ship even more consoles than that both to the US and Europe on a weekly basis? Their Switch 2 production capabilities are not on that level.

Look at DroidKnight’s visual to see this gradual decline. There was a peak at launch and another peak at DKBananza; all else has been WoW drops. Gradual decline doesn’t mean every week is lower than the last, but rather there is a general downward trajectory. The DKBananza figures are not evidence of supply shortage in hardware; all that shows is DKBananza was a hotly anticipated game that drove demand for a couple of weeks. In fact, that Nintendo was able to match DKBananza with such large JP hardware supply could serve as evidence toward there not being a supply shock but a demand shock.

Also, all, what I’m saying is not at all controversial. I think the word “concern” is what too many are getting hung up on. It should not be crazy to say that the recent downward trajectory might indicate ambiguity in NS2’s legs. Are you really telling me that NS2 will be an unambiguous smash hit? Going above 3DS and NSW’s first few years? I believe it is likely, but the present data is painting an inconclusive story.

Last edited by firebush03 - on 08 August 2025