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Forums - Sales - Prediction: MS won't subsidize 10th Gen Xbox & it will cost $650 or more.

It's still very far off, and I think it's depending on where they'll be going with the PS5 Pro price tag until PS6.

If tariffs and the world in general will come to peace until PS6, I just can't imagine Sony would go further north than 599, maybe 649 in the worst case for the PS6.

I bet they will only produce one unit, with the disc drive being sold separately right from start. I can even imagine they'll scrap PS5's disc edition until PS6, IF availability of the separate disc drive unit can be guaranteed in every market.

As far as Xbox Next goes, and if rumors about an AMD APU in Xbox PC's are true, with "biggest generational leap" in mind, I don't think this will settle under 699.

Edit: If Xbox won't be able to wait until 2027/2028 due to the Series generation not be able to draw numbers anymore, which is currently happening already.

Last edited by Panicradio - on 12 July 2025

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123tbones said:

Interesting prediction, but why in the title you put < when it comes to the price of the next Xbox being $650 or more when it should be >?

Wait you are right. Fixing it now. 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 12 July 2025

Hardstuck-Platinum said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

P.S. Sony will follow suit 4 years after the launch of 10th Gen Xbox and stop subsidizing PS6 consoles. Nintendo will own the console market with 70% marketshare. 

I was agreeing with you until you said this. The PlayStation division is currently performing excellently for Sony. Why would they stop subsidizing their consoles while that formula is working so well for them? You're acting like the PS5 is underperforming for Sony but I've not seen anyone that invests in Sony say this. 

Because the same empty western suit bozo types that run Xbox also run Sony. It's why they threw away billions chasing GaaS. It's why there's Sony exclusives on PC instead of focusing on more console sales. Sony takes a lot of their customers these days for granted or just flat out sees them as walking banks. If MS no longer subsidizes consoles Sony will follow suit. Just like they did with putting games on PC. Just like they did with charging for online. 



Panicradio said:

It's still very far off, and I think it's depending on where they'll be going with the PS5 Pro price tag until PS6.

If tariffs and the world in general will come to peace until PS6, I just can't imagine Sony would go further north than 599, maybe 649 in the worst case for the PS6.

I bet they will only produce one unit, with the disc drive being sold separately right from start. I can even imagine they'll scrap PS5's disc edition until PS6, IF availability of the separate disc drive unit can be guaranteed in every market.

As far as Xbox Next goes, and if rumors about an AMD APU in Xbox PC's are true, with "biggest generational leap" in mind, I don't think this will settle under 699.

Edit: If Xbox won't be able to wait until 2027/2028 due to the Series generation not be able to draw numbers anymore, which is currently happening already.

If Xbox releases before 2027 then we will be looking at a very weak "console" compared to the PS6. If I were Sony I wouldn't even launch the PS6 in that case until XB5:PS5 monthly sales ratios equaled 1:1. 



$600 starting price for the PS6 and next Xbox is probably the absolute cheapest they could be, and $700+ wouldn't surprise me.



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Tober said:

In a way the loss leader strategy already is a questionable strategy with Free to Play games being so popular. There are only a small amount of those gamers that buy microtransactions, most never spend a dime. Selling a console at a loss to those kind of players is simply trowing money away.

^ so much this.

Then throw in gamepass, that conditions people to not buy any games ontop... and yeah its gonna be bleak.



Hmm, I think there will still be subsidized hardware.

I think people are jumping the gun, Xbox makes profit... Giving up subsidising the hardware will jeopardise the $17billion they earn on gaming services. They will sacrifice 100s of million a year on hardware to keep the bigger prize of billion in services profit. Xbox is still the primary driver of all their services revenue.

I predict:

They will have an entry point "loss leader" which will be sold near to break even but essentially target a competitive price with PS5 Pro... So like $599 for a true next gen AI driven device, advanced in feature set but not necessarily bleeding edge in specs. They will take a small loss initially if that's what they need to do.

Then they will have the Series X equivalent device but its more enthusiast driven. That will be like $899. Sold at break even. This is their attempt at future proofing against PS6 but also their marketing tool for showcasing the biggest generational leap...

----

Alternatively they reveal a Modular device that streamlines the PC experience to creates a unique hybrid of console/PC. Starting device is like $599 but select GPU upgrades are available throughout it's life and they are tied to specific Xbox performance profiles. So when PS6 arrives, Xbox will be floating a 2nd wave GPU upgrade available at a price cheaper than the overall PS6 hardware.

Wave 1- 2027
Entry Next gen Xbox $549
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade I $499
Bundled Pro Nextgen Xbox $849


Wave 2- 2030
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade II $499

Wave 3- 3033 etc

Essentially Xbox will support around 4 performance profiles over it's life as opposed to just 2 (Series S & X). Microsoft will eventually let hardware makers build devices to these specifications and call them an "Xbox"... Alongside their own subsidised flagship boxes



Cerebralbore101 said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

I was agreeing with you until you said this. The PlayStation division is currently performing excellently for Sony. Why would they stop subsidizing their consoles while that formula is working so well for them? You're acting like the PS5 is underperforming for Sony but I've not seen anyone that invests in Sony say this. 

Because the same empty western suit bozo types that run Xbox also run Sony. It's why they threw away billions chasing GaaS. It's why there's Sony exclusives on PC instead of focusing on more console sales. Sony takes a lot of their customers these days for granted or just flat out sees them as walking banks. If MS no longer subsidizes consoles Sony will follow suit. Just like they did with putting games on PC. Just like they did with charging for online. 

Sony made the best selling console of all time. They did it with subsidized hardware and they know that as they are not stupid and forgetful. The PS5 may not be a record breaking success in terms of sales numbers, but it knocked a major competitor out of the market and that is a huge success for them. 

PS1 - First console to sell 100M

PS2- Best selling console of all time. 

PS4- Rescued them after failure of PS3

PS5- pushed Xbox out of the market. 

Look at the success subsidized hardware has brought them. How could anyone think they'd abandon that? Your whole argument is "they've made mistakes before and they'll make one again". Well the only really consequential mistake they made was the PS3 and they haven't made one since so thinking they'll make another one is wishing thinking, for the lack of a better phrase. 

Otter said:

Hmm, I think there will still be subsidized hardware.

I think people are jumping the gun, Xbox makes profit... Giving up subsidising the hardware will jeopardise the $17billion they earn on gaming services. They will sacrifice 100s of million a year on hardware to keep the bigger prize of billion in services profit. Xbox is still the primary driver of all their services revenue.

I predict:

They will have an entry point "loss leader" which will be sold near to break even but essentially target a competitive price with PS5 Pro... So like $599 for a true next gen AI driven device, advanced in feature set but not necessarily bleeding edge in specs. They will take a small loss initially if that's what they need to do.

Then they will have the Series X equivalent device but its more enthusiast driven. That will be like $899. Sold at break even. This is their attempt at future proofing against PS6 but also their marketing tool for showcasing the biggest generational leap...

----

Alternatively they reveal a Modular device that streamlines the PC experience to creates a unique hybrid of console/PC. Starting device is like $599 but select GPU upgrades are available throughout it's life and they are tied to specific Xbox performance profiles. So when PS6 arrives, Xbox will be floating a 2nd wave GPU upgrade available at a price cheaper than the overall PS6 hardware.

Wave 1- 2027
Entry Next gen Xbox $549
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade I $499
Bundled Pro Nextgen Xbox $849


Wave 2- 2030
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade II $499

Wave 3- 3033 etc

Essentially Xbox will support around 4 performance profiles over it's life as opposed to just 2 (Series S & X). Microsoft will eventually let hardware makers build devices to these specifications and call them an "Xbox"... Alongside their own subsidised flagship boxes

I don't understand the comment because just by looking at the current XBSS/X prices we can see they are no longer following a subsidized model? XBSS is 380$ and the XBSX digital is 550$. Historical precedent alone is all you need to counter your argument? 



Hardstuck-Platinum said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Because the same empty western suit bozo types that run Xbox also run Sony. It's why they threw away billions chasing GaaS. It's why there's Sony exclusives on PC instead of focusing on more console sales. Sony takes a lot of their customers these days for granted or just flat out sees them as walking banks. If MS no longer subsidizes consoles Sony will follow suit. Just like they did with putting games on PC. Just like they did with charging for online. 

Sony made the best selling console of all time. They did it with subsidized hardware and they know that as they are not stupid and forgetful. The PS5 may not be a record breaking success in terms of sales numbers, but it knocked a major competitor out of the market and that is a huge success for them. 

PS1 - First console to sell 100M

PS2- Best selling console of all time. 

PS4- Rescued them after failure of PS3

PS5- pushed Xbox out of the market. 

Look at the success subsidized hardware has brought them. How could anyone think they'd abandon that? Your whole argument is "they've made mistakes before and they'll make one again". Well the only really consequential mistake they made was the PS3 and they haven't made one since so thinking they'll make another one is wishing thinking, for the lack of a better phrase. 

Otter said:

Hmm, I think there will still be subsidized hardware.

I think people are jumping the gun, Xbox makes profit... Giving up subsidising the hardware will jeopardise the $17billion they earn on gaming services. They will sacrifice 100s of million a year on hardware to keep the bigger prize of billion in services profit. Xbox is still the primary driver of all their services revenue.

I predict:

They will have an entry point "loss leader" which will be sold near to break even but essentially target a competitive price with PS5 Pro... So like $599 for a true next gen AI driven device, advanced in feature set but not necessarily bleeding edge in specs. They will take a small loss initially if that's what they need to do.

Then they will have the Series X equivalent device but its more enthusiast driven. That will be like $899. Sold at break even. This is their attempt at future proofing against PS6 but also their marketing tool for showcasing the biggest generational leap...

----

Alternatively they reveal a Modular device that streamlines the PC experience to creates a unique hybrid of console/PC. Starting device is like $599 but select GPU upgrades are available throughout it's life and they are tied to specific Xbox performance profiles. So when PS6 arrives, Xbox will be floating a 2nd wave GPU upgrade available at a price cheaper than the overall PS6 hardware.

Wave 1- 2027
Entry Next gen Xbox $549
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade I $499
Bundled Pro Nextgen Xbox $849


Wave 2- 2030
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade II $499

Wave 3- 3033 etc

Essentially Xbox will support around 4 performance profiles over it's life as opposed to just 2 (Series S & X). Microsoft will eventually let hardware makers build devices to these specifications and call them an "Xbox"... Alongside their own subsidised flagship boxes

I don't understand the comment because just by looking at the current XBSS/X prices we can see they are no longer following a subsidized model? XBSS is 380$ and the XBSX digital is 550$. Historical precedent alone is all you need to counter your argument? 

Microsoft is still losing money at current Xbox prices, going by what Phil Spencer said they were losing on making Xbox series X/S at the previous price point.



Sephiran said:

Microsoft is still losing money at current Xbox prices, going by what Phil Spencer said they were losing on making Xbox series X/S at the previous price point.

Absolutely no way the XBSS is losing money at 380$. It's a 4tlop machine. One third of the power of XBSS and it has been sold as low as 150$ at Costo Xmas 2023. As for the XBSX, if Sony can sell the PS5 digital at less than 400$ on sale, then how could the XBSX digital edition be losing money at 550$ ?