Prediction: MS won't subsidize 10th Gen Xbox & it will cost $650 or more.

[Otter]

Hmm, I think there will still be subsidized hardware.

I think people are jumping the gun, Xbox makes profit... Giving up subsidising the hardware will jeopardise the $17billion they earn on gaming services. They will sacrifice 100s of million a year on hardware to keep the bigger prize of billion in services profit. Xbox is still the primary driver of all their services revenue.

I predict:

They will have an entry point "loss leader" which will be sold near to break even but essentially target a competitive price with PS5 Pro... So like $599 for a true next gen AI driven device, advanced in feature set but not necessarily bleeding edge in specs. They will take a small loss initially if that's what they need to do.

Then they will have the Series X equivalent device but its more enthusiast driven. That will be like $899. Sold at break even. This is their attempt at future proofing against PS6 but also their marketing tool for showcasing the biggest generational leap...

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Alternatively they reveal a Modular device that streamlines the PC experience to creates a unique hybrid of console/PC. Starting device is like $599 but select GPU upgrades are available throughout it's life and they are tied to specific Xbox performance profiles. So when PS6 arrives, Xbox will be floating a 2nd wave GPU upgrade available at a price cheaper than the overall PS6 hardware.

Wave 1- 2027
Entry Next gen Xbox $549
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade I $499
Bundled Pro Nextgen Xbox $849


Wave 2- 2030
Standalone Pro GPU Upgrade II $499

Wave 3- 3033 etc

Essentially Xbox will support around 4 performance profiles over it's life as opposed to just 2 (Series S & X). Microsoft will eventually let hardware makers build devices to these specifications and call them an "Xbox"... Alongside their own subsidised flagship boxes