And considering that's physical sales only and MKW is the main game to play on the system at this point, when you add in digital sales, I bet MKW attach rate is basically 1-to-1. It's hard to imagine many people buying S2 at this point and not buying MKW with it, since there isn't much reason to own it besides that game at this point. Just as with the Switch, for the first month and a half of so until MK8D came out there wasn't really any point in getting the Switch if you weren't buying BotW with it, and it actually had an over 100% attach rate that first month I think as people couldn't find the system but I guess got the game in anticipation of finding the system soon.

Raidou selling more on SW2 than on PS4 is a good sign, because it means SW2 may already have a more active user base when it comes to buying new third party games than PS4.

PS5 falls back to pre-Switch 2 launch numbers... Doesn't look healthy at all.

It's looking like the PS5 won't even be breaking 8 million lifetime.

So after a huge drop last week this week the Switch 2 has a very mild one and much better than the Switch 1's 3rd week so that 2nd week drop really was just due to stock. It looks like it could potentially consistently stay above 100k a week for some time still which would be insane. For the Switch 1 it's been declining consistently every week again for a while so sub 10k could happen for the first time in July with perhaps only a handful of weeks above 10k left for it. And the PS5 is back to doing badly again with nothing left in sight to help it out much now. DQ12 would give a notable boost but that might not even be a 2026 game so by the time it comes out the PS6 could be just around the corner.

Nah it's way, way more likely to reach 9m than to fail to reach 8m. It looks like it'll be at about 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year so with at least 2.5 years to go till the PS6 it'll get to 8m no issue even if it'll be almost exclusively crawling from this point onward.

2.5 years is 130 weeks.  Giving it a generous 10,000 average sales per week is 1.3 million units during that time period. Giving it a chance at a possible 8.2 million lifetime.  At this stage there is no way it can achieve anything close to 9 million.  The final year of that 2.5 year time period will be nearly dead, thus effecting that very generous 10,000 weekly average.

Way, way more likely?  I'd give the PS5 maybe a 70/30% chance of crossing the 8m mark.  Zero percent chance of it reaching 9m at this point.

All the big cards have been played for PS5 this gen, it has gotten Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy and all the major hitters. DQ12 will boost PS5 but its clear the majority of the boost DQ12 gives will go to Switch 2 (Given that it will be the in demand console at the time DQ12 releases).

GTA will boost PS5 a bit next year in Japan, but GTA is no way the juggernaut it is in the west in Japan. Its less popular than Monster Hunter there, which already failed to boost PS5 more than 1-2 weeks in Japan this year.

This ignores that the PS5 obviously isn't gonna stop selling the day the PS6 comes out. The PS4 has sold an extra 250k since the launch of the PS5 and 2028 is still a possible launch year for the PS6 but even if I assume 2027 with holiday sales, occasional discounts and DQ 12 8m isn't up in the air with how much time is left till the platform gets replaced and discontinued. DQ 12 could still be a while away but it will still sell some PS5's even if it'll probably boost the Switch 2 a lot more.

Yes cause 8m is basically guaranteed unless the PS6 launches next year out of nowhere and 9m is still a very real possibility depending on it's launch year. If it doesn't come out till late 2028 the PS5 will crawl to 9m eventually.