I wouldn't say that's now likely, the PS5 should still have it in the bag cause 16-17m in just 7 months is a huge ask. Even 14m by the end of this year would be a fantastic start for the Switch 2.

Now that GTA VI has been delayed, that makes it easier for Switch 2 to sell more than PS5 this year. I could see it happening even if Nintendo doesn't announce any more games for this year (I personally don't think they'll announce anything major for Switch 2 for this year, although I did think for a while that they'd announce 3D Mario for this year but I now think that will be a Holiday 2026 title).

Its a lot less crazy when you look at it quarterly. All signs point to Switch 2 selling ~6m through its launch month, which would more or less put it on par with the PS5 for the first half of the year. Keep in mind given the state of pre-orders that there will likely continue to be a high level of latent demand through the rest of summer, which would put it at roughly 10m going into the fall. From there, just matching the Switch 1's first holiday would get it to 17m.

I don't see it selling that much in its launch month since 3-4m would already be a fantastic launch for it though with the Switch never getting a price cut and other consoles getting price increases I suppose that could make the Switch 2's sales curve be fairly frontloaded cause if it might increase in price in the coming years the people who are interested may as well get one as soon as possible. I'm sure some people were intending to wait for a Switch price cut that never came.

Established pre-order figures and shipment data directly contradict your prediction. Based on the figures we have they should have at least 5m shipped out to stores in the first month at minimum

Should be none of them
Should boycot nintendo sony and microsoft for there insane pricess

If that contradicts it then can you provide a source?

I don't think there is any source as of yet. We have some indications of Nintendo aiming to have the biggest launch ever, and Nintendo starting mass production earlier than other console systems did before launch. We also have analysts predicting a 6-8 million launch for Switch 2. So i don't think there is much doubt that Nintendo will produce more systems before launch than any previous console launch, the main question will be how much higher.

not sure where they got their 5mil figure, but I do know JP had an absurd 2.2mil preorder requests within the first couple of weeks lol. (previous record launch in JP for any vg system is PS2’s 600k iirc…tho i could be way off on this.)

[EDIT: this is old. See post from 5d later for new projection!] also, not sure if i commented already on this, but I do expect NSW2 to easily clear PS5 this calendar year. If NSW2 launches to 6-8mil in June alone, then it’s already caught up to PS5’s total figures. I expect NSW2 to have strong legs & a much stronger holiday than PS5 this year, so yeah, I can see ~23mil C’2025 [7milQ2/6milQ3/10milQ4…Nintendo will not be able to keep up with demand] for NSW2 versus maybe 15-17mil for PS5 [3.5milQ1/3milQ2/2.75milQ3/6.5milQ4]. (the price hikes are really whats gonna hurt PS5 this year.)