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Norion said:

I don't see it selling that much in its launch month since 3-4m would already be a fantastic launch for it though with the Switch never getting a price cut and other consoles getting price increases I suppose that could make the Switch 2's sales curve be fairly frontloaded cause if it might increase in price in the coming years the people who are interested may as well get one as soon as possible. I'm sure some people were intending to wait for a Switch price cut that never came.

Established pre-order figures and shipment data directly contradict your prediction. Based on the figures we have they should have at least 5m shipped out to stores in the first month at minimum