PS5 will only overtake Switch 2 this calendar year if Nintendo flops on their 19M forecast.

Yeah I definitely underestimated Switch 2 here, I expected it to be huge, but not quite THIS huge.

In a interesting plot twist brought by November, PS5 is not leading by 1.5 million units

Switch 2 can still win however, but it will be a close race

This thread cracks me up:

1. Nintendo expecting to only ship 15 million for the entire fiscal year.

2. GTA6 delayed twice.

3. PS5 gets a permanent price hike (and storage reduction), but is quickly followed by its best deals in Europe for November and December. I was semi expecting a "cliff" in Europe because Sony throughout this generation seemed to enjoy pampering US gamers and punishing Europeans and the Japanese!

Overall, both consoles overperformed. But I wonder if December will be a disaster in the US considering the dreadful November. Let's hope for the best.

This thread just proves how this generation is totally unlike any other generation so basing sales projection on the past has little to no value.

I guess we are still waiting tos ee what happens in December but I assume they may acutally be neck and neck. When we look at units sold it shows the PS5 at 14.1 and SW2 at 12.5. That means that in order for Switch to match PS5, its going to have to sell an extra 1.6 million on top of whatever Sony sells. Thats not gonna happen. Sony will win the most sold but that doesn't really answer our question. In therory, Nintendo could have shipped more and have a huge amount of stock on the shelves. If Sony December than most likely, the PS5 will have shipped more. This would need to be the case in order for Sony to maintain stock on shelves while selling millions more than switch. The math looks something like this:

Nintendo sell 15.0 million for 2025. Ships 17 million
Sony sells 17 million for 2025. Ships 19 million

This, to me, seems to be the current direction we are headed.

Based on VGC December estimates (without Asia, except by Japan)

Switch 2 - 15,455 million
PS5 - 16,664 million

PS5 overall sells better in Asia outside Japan compared to Switch 2, but even if it's not the case I don't think Asia will make Switch revert a 1.1 million gap

We still need to wait for official shipments from both Sony and Nintendo, of course, but right now seems like PS5 will ship more units

PS5 won in sell through by 1.32 million units according to VGC, but I don't know if this is enough to win in shipments. This is Switch 2's first year, so the gap between the annual shipped and sold through will be large.

I think once new manufacturing contracts are done with higher component pricing then we will see console prices rise and console sales fall so I feel the later part of the year will be poor sales and I feel both companies will have to rely more on their existing userbase. PS5 is well established but Nintendo will need to focus a little bit more back on the original Switch rather than try to ignore it. This will probably mean more conversions of older Nintendo games to Switch 1 rather than new games for Switch 1 though. Many are predicting the AI bubble to burst so I could see normal sales resume in 2027. I feel 2026 is going to be a very difficult year for the games industry.

Yeah i think sales are too close to show who actually won. It is very likely that Nintendo just shipped out more. In fact given the forecast from each company I would bet that Switch 2 shipped more. This is of course without me actually having any inside knowledge. Prior 2 GTA being delayed I would have assumed that the PS5 would have shipped more. That is my current prediction for 2026.